OCTOBER 7: 2010 Election Prediction Fun

Time for some 2010 predictions. Starting with a few Senate and then I will add more in the coming days.
Senate

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek (HOLD)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)

Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 20 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)


West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

House (To come)
Governor (To come)

New York Senate Shocker: Gillibrand 45, DioGuardi 44

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

Survey USA 

Related articles

• Gillibrand lead down to a single point (hotair.com)
• New Q Poll, More Surprises (observer.com)
• Poll: Gillibrand Has a Race in New York (blogs.wsj.com)
• Three new polls on the New York Special (redstate.com)
• Gillibrand Holds Slim Lead Over Unknown Rival (politicalwire.com)
• Hugh Hewitt: A New York State of Mind (hughhewitt.com)

New York: Gillibrand Over DioGuardi Shrinks to 10 pts

Maybe Ditsy isn't safe after all?
 
New York Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 16, 2010  

Election 2010: New York Senate
Joe DioGuardi (R)	39%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	49%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure Rasmussen Reports	7%

Related articles

• Reid: Gillibrand 'hottest' Senator. (redstate.com)
• DioGuardi wins against Gillibrand (timesunion.com)
• Townsend wins, DioGuardi leadsin primaries for U.S. Senate seats (troyrecord.com)

New York: GOP Poised to Pick Up Gillibrand's House Seat

This could well be a Republican pickup, though its national implications are limited, for three reasons. (1) It's a Republican-leaning district. Gillibrand won in 2006 only because of late-breaking scandal news about the Republican incumbent. (2) Out parties often win special House elections in the first year of an administration. (3) Tedisco is a well-known politician in metro Albany, which includes most of the district, while Murphy has some tax problems.
US News

Beating the Independence Out of Kirsten Gillibrand

New York: Democrats Would Throw Out Paterson, Gillibrand in Primary

In a general election matchup, Gov. Paterson ties former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican challenger, 43 - 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Paterson leads 70 - 18 percent among Democrats, while Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 38 percent among independent voters. New York City voters go with Paterson 52 - 35 percent, while Giuliani leads 48 - 36 percent among suburban voters and 47 - 38 percent upstate.

Attorney General Cuomo leads Giuliani 51 - 37 percent in the Governor's race, ahead 81 - 11 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Giuliani leads 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Cuomo is up 61 - 30 percent in New York City and 48 - 41 percent in the suburbs and gets 44 percent of upstate voters to Giuliani's 42 percent.
Quinnipiac

New York: Gov. Paterson Picks Blue Dog Sexpot to Replace Hillary

Kirsten Gillibrand, soon to be Senator.