Top 10 Liberal States: Mostly the Ones in Decline

New Jersey: Menendez in Trouble

A rematch between Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and New Jersey state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) in 2012 would be a competitive one, according to a new poll out Wednesday.
Numbers from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Menendez with just a slight edge over Kean in a hypothetical 2012 general election match up. Menendez leads 41 percent to 39 percent. 

The Hill

October 26: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +1)

New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Election 2010: Where Things Stand (cbsnews.com)
• How Republicans will win the Senate (thehill.com)
• Why New Jersey Is Still No. 1 for Property Taxes (dailyfinance.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• The Battle for America 2010: What are GOP Prospects for a Senate Takeover One Week Out? (pajamasmedia.com)
• A sense of the Senate (powerlineblog.com)
• Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary (politico.com)
• A report from the field on the race between Sean Duffy and Julie Lassa. (slate.com)

October 25: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +1)

New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP) 

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

GOVERNOR
Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Florica: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 2 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New Jersey: LoBiondo Leads by 37; Andrews Leads by 41

Image via Wikipedia

A Richard Stockton College/Zogby Poll shows U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo and U.S. Rep. Robert Andrews holding substantial leads over their respective challengers in the 2nd and 1st congressional districts.

Politicker NJ

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New Jersey Surprise: Left-Leaning Paper Endorses Republican in Largest County

Image via WikipediaA pleasant surprise from the home state:

Bergen County's paper of record has endorsed Republican Kathleen Donovan for county executive.
The Record chose Donovan, who currently serves as county clerk, over two-term incumbent Democrat Dennis McNerney.

The Bergen Record

New Jersey: Runyon Takes Lead Over Adler

A Richard Stockton College/Zogby poll of likely voters in the 3rd Congressional District voters shows GOP challenger Jon Runyan leading U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) 37-40%, or "too close to call," according to the poll.

Zogby

New Jersey: Panic in Frank Pallone Camp, Cancels Debate With Anna Little at Last Minute

Representative Frank J. Pallone (D-NJ-6) abruptly canceled his appearance at a scheduled candidates' forum with Republican challenger Anna Little. But Little announced that she would appear as scheduled at the forum sponsored by two county medical societies.
Pallone cited a "scheduling conflict," according to this press release by Little, who suggested that Pallone was simply running scared.
Frank Pallone is scared to talk to doctors in New Jersey about the government takeover of healthcare he rammed through the Congress. And that's disappointing. Not surprising, I must say, given his efforts to do everything he can to find ways not to have to appear on the same stage or in the same forum with me, but disappointing nevertheless.
The good news is that I'll have all that time to myself to hear the doctors complain about PalloneCare!

Examiner

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• U.S. Rep. Pallone cancels appearance at public health care forum with challenger Anna Little (nj.com)
• U.S. Rep. Pallone, tea party-backed GOP challenger Little agree to debate in Aberdeen (nj.com)
• Congressional candidate Anna Little's star rises among tea party faithful (nj.com)
• In the reality tv show called politics, there should be a show called the Next Best Political Upset (hotair.com)
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New Jersey: SHOCK POLL Pallone 44; Little 43

And I had just posted a Pallone/Little story just minutes ago!
There are still quite a bit of undecideds in this race, and the old adage is that they will break about 2 to 1 AGAINST the incumbent. This is getting very interesting.

I also can't see Scott Sipprelle not winning his 12th district battle against Rush Holt if Anna Little wins her race (her district is much more Democrat than Sipprelle's 12th [although that too leans toward the Democrats]).

***

Republican numbers cruncher Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. shows Republican challenger Little with a shot to win in her challenge of a vulnerable U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch).
Commissioned by the Little campaign, Geller puts Pallone ahead of Little by one point, 44-43%, in a survey Geller conducted from Oct. 5-6.
The survey of 300 likely 6th Congressional District voters with a +/- 5.66% margin of error shows that district voters favor the generic Republican candidate by a margin of 43-39%. 

Politicker NJ

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New Jersey: Adler Desperate to Distance Himself from Fake 'Tea-Party' Candidate He Created

With his “From what I know…” answer during the debate at the Jewish Community Center in Cherry Hill this week, Adler’s denial of wedging stalking horse candidate Peter DeStefano between himself and GOP rookie candidate Jon Runyan is limited, soft, and short on particulars, at best.

The now-protracted question remains: Are reports that Adler, staffers, and advisors connived to create the Frankenstein monster, DeStefano the Tea Party Candidate, true?

Politicker NJ

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All 5 New Jersey Republican Incumbents Safe From Defeat

Sixty percent of adult New Jerseyans believe the United States is "on the wrong track," up six percentage points from the previous survey, and the highest measure since the last months of the Bush presidency, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll made public Thursday.
Just 30 percent believe the nation is headed in the right direction, a decrease of three points from the last survey and the lowest so far in the Obama presidency.

New Jersey Newsroom.com

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New Jersey: Pallone Can't Seem to Crush the 'Littlest' Tea Partier of Them All

Every 2 years, there are several upsets in the Congressional elections that nobody seriously considered could happen. This year, the 6th District race between entrenched incumbent Frank Pallone and spirited outsider Anna Little has a great chance of being one of those 2010 upsets.

Pallone and Little are basically tied 49 percent to 47 percent in the Monmouth half of the district, but Pallone has a sizable 58 percent to 33 percent lead in the other half, which includes urban strongholds in Middlesex and Union counties.
Little actually leads by 51 percent to 38 percent among self-identified independent voters in the district, but, so far, it is not enough to overcome the Democrats more than 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans.
Pallone's job performance rating among likely voters in his district stands at 46 percent approve to 36 percent disapprove. He also garners personal ratings of 48 percent favorable to 32 percent unfavorable. By comparison, 33 percent of voters give Little a favorable rating and 22 percent are unfavorable, with nearly half , 45 percent, offering no opinion on the Highlands mayor.

New Jersey Newsroom

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New Jersey Corruption: Joe Vas GUILTY

Image of Perth Amboy via Wikipedia
My former mayor has been found guilty of 1% of the evil things he did during his time in office. In New Jersey, that's something to celebrate.

A jury today found former Assemblyman and Perth Amboy Mayor Joseph Vas guilty of receiving illegal campaign funds and lying to federal authorities, according to a report in the Star-Ledger.

"Jurors in U.S. District Court in Newark convicted Vas of a scheme in which $25,000 cash from a developer was distributed to people who then wrote checks to Vas' ill-fated 2006 campaign for Congress."

PolitickerNJ

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Why Anna Little Can Finally rid New Jersey of Frank Pallone

Christie beat Corzine by 15.5 points in this seemingly overwhelming Democrat district.That was a year ago, when the anti-Democrat intensity was not nearly as high as it is today.
Also, Christie only won by 4 pts, so it is not like someone could blame it on an overwhelming victory that drastically changed voting patterns. Despite Christie's popularity today, it was a very close election in 2009.

Towns in 6th District won by Christie

Aberdeen
Allenhurst
Atlantic Highlands
Avon-by-the-Sea
Belmar
Bradley Beach
DealDunellen
Edison (Strong Democrat town)
Hazlet
HighlandsKeyport
Interlaken
Lake Como
Loch Arbour
Manalapan
Marlboro
MatawanMiddlesex
Middletown
Monmouth Beach
Neptune City
Ocean
Old Bridge

Sayreville
Sea Bright

South Amboy

Union Beach
West Long Branch

Towns in the 6th District won by Corzine
Corzine only won the very core of Democrat towns in this district. Not one of these can be considered a toss-up municipality.
Asbury Park
Franklin (Partially in District)
Long Branch
Metuchen
Neptune Township
New Brunswick
Highland Park
Piscataway
Plainfield
Red Bank

Anna Little has a 13 pt lead with independents.

No Governor or Senate race at the top of the ticket will keep turnout low. 

Especially in urban Pallone towns such as New Brunswick, Plainfield, Neptune, Asbury Park and Franklin.

2 polls average out to a 9 pt Pallone lead. 
One gave Pallone a 6 pt lead and the other a 12 pt lead.

Other towns in the area, but not in the 6th District also shed their Democrat-voting history in last year's election.

East Brunswick
Jamesburg
Monroe
Somerville
South Brunswick
South River
Woodbridge

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New Jersey: Frank Pallone Cast Deciding Vote to Allow Massive Tax-Hike

Republican congressional challenger Anna Little - responding to today's House vote to adjourn Congress before holding a vote to enact legislation blocking planned tax hikes - this afternoon sharply criticized her opponent, 22-year incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone, for casting the deciding vote to adjourn Congress before acting to prevent a massive tax hike.
"Today, Frank Pallone showed why it's time for him to leave Congress," said Little. "With an economy in the ruts, he cast the deciding vote to adjourn the Congress before even holding a vote on whether or not to block a massive tax hike. His deciding vote will lead to continued uncertainty about what's to come for our nation's job creators, and will make job creation that much more difficult in the weeks and months to come.

Politicker NJ

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New Jersey: John Adler Sends Out False Mailers Covering Up Support for Pelosi

BERKELEY TWP. - Looking ticked and vaguely cleated in a senior citizens' community this afternoon, 3rd Congressional District challenger Jon Runyan accused U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) of lying about his positions on Medicare and Social Security in a districtwide Democratic State Committee mailer.

Politicker NJ

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New Jersey: Yet ANOTHER Burlington County Democrat Switches to GOP

Township Councilman Rick Prickett became the latest local elected official to switch political parties.
Prickett, who served as a Democratic council member for more than seven years, announced Friday that he intends to run for the council in November as a member of the Republican Party.
"I've been a Democrat for more than 40 years," Prickett said. "I chose to become a Pemberton Republican because I believe those individuals share values similar to those living in our township."

Philly Burbs

Chris Christie Allows New Jerseyans to Hold Their Heads High

Image via Wikipedia

MTV's hit show "Jersey Shore," featuring Mike Sorrentino, the guido extraordinaire nicknamed for his impressive abs (they're a "Situation," apparently).

Recently, though, I've been holding my head high, thanks to Jersey's new governor, Republican Chris Christie, a man who hasn't seen his abs since the "Born to Run" tour -- if ever. In the 2009 race, our last governor, Jon Corzine, ridiculed Christie's weight, then left him with the gruesome political challenge of closing an $11 billion deficit, the largest gap per taxpayer in the United States.

Washington Examiner

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New Jersey: Christie's Approval Rating at 43-32

Gov. Christopher Christie has a 43%-32% job approval rating, and New Jersey voters narrowly back his proposed budget, 40%-30%, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind poll released this morning.  

Politicker NJ

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Bizarre: 2nd Democrat Politician Named Brown Switches Parties in Burlington County, NJ—In Space of 2 Weeks!

Already wounded and reeling hard from the dagger blow of another guy named Brown from Evesham, Democrats in Burlington felt the blade go in even deeper today as Freeholder Chris Brown joined Mayor Randy Brown in changing his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican.

A disaffected Brown said he ran for public office on a platform of fiscal conservatism and social responsibility, committed to using his private sector experience to streamline government and make it more accountable. 

Politicker NJ