The biggest change being in a Giuliani/Hillary race.
If the next election for president were held today, and (...) were the Republican candidate and (...) were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?
Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton
Nov. 2007
Sept. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
46%
49%
Rudy Giuliani (R)
45%
42%
Romney v. Rodham Clinton
Nov. 2007
Sept. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
50%
51%
Mitt Romney (R)
39%
38%
Thompson v. Rodham Clinton
Nov. 2007
Sept. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
51%
50%
Fred Thompson (R)
37%
41%
McCain v. Rodham Clinton
Nov. 2007
Dec. 2006
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
47%
43%
John McCain (R)
43%
47%
Giuliani v. Obama
Nov. 2007
Jul. 2007
Barack Obama (D)
44%
45%
Rudy Giuliani (R)
42%
40%
Romney v. Obama
Nov. 2007
Sept. 2007
Barack Obama (D)
48%
51%
Mitt Romney (R)
36%
34%
Giuliani v. Edwards
Nov. 2007
John Edwards (D)
45%
Rudy Giuliani (R)
44%
Source: Hart/McInturff / The Wall Street Journal / NBC News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,509 American adults, conducted from Nov. 1 to Nov. 5, 2007. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
The error on the latest poll is +/- 2.5%.
ReplyDeleteThis means there is no statistically significant change. The poll isn't sensitive enough to make a 2 or 3% change mean anything at all.
With +/- 2.5% (which is just the statistical error, and does not figure in other uncertainties such as psychological factors that make polls less meaningful than they appear), only a 5% or greater difference has any mathematical meaning.
And again, this is only the mathematical error: the theoretical limit of the poll's precision. Human error makes polls even less meaningful; people don't always answer what they really believe in polls, and so on.
National polls really mean nothing when candidates are only campaigning in four states heavily, and its just under a year out, thats like a decade in political time.
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