Independents Still Dislike Obama

Image by Barack Obama via FlickrAngus Reid:

Public support for President Barack Obama remains low in the United States, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,031 American adults, 40 per cent of respondents (unchanged since September) approve of Obama’s performance as president, while 52 per cent (-1) disapprove.
Obama is unable to reach the 50 per cent mark on approval in any of the country’s four main regions, getting his best numbers in the West (47%). One third of Americans (34%) strongly disapprove of the president’s performance, while 13 per cent strongly approve.

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Democrats Lack Enthusiasm for Voting

Image via Wikipedia

Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting.

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Top 10 Achievements of the Obama Administration.. So Far

Image by Beverly & Pack via Flickr 

1.  Gitmo remains open:
2.  Helped GOP retake House:
3.  Bush tax cuts extended:
4.  Rise of the Tea Party:
5.  Messiah myth punctured:
6.  Iraq and Afghanistan were not abandoned:
7.  Progressives miffed:
8.  Continues many of Bush’s anti-terror policies:
9. Deportations of illegal immigrants:
10.  Rest and relaxation:

Human Events

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Goodbye Socialist: Obama Losing to Generic Republican by 5 pts

 

Notice the large 18 percent undecided vote and remember that the undecided usually break against the incumbent. This means Obama would probably lose the 2012 election by more than he won the 2008 election.

Image via Wikipedia

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Huckabee Has Highest Favorable Rating, Palin Fourth

Republicans with an eye on the White House have some work to do on improving their image and recognition by voters.
A new Gallup Poll shows Mike Huckabee is the most liked and Sarah Palin is the best known in the crowded field of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates.
Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and winner of the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses, has a net favorable rating of 30% among Republicans and is recognized by 87%. Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, comes in fourth in favorability (22%) but is recognized by 95%.

USA Today

Illinois: Kirk Leads Giannoulias by 3 pts

Kirk held a 44 percent to 41 percent advantage over Giannoulias, but the slight edge fell within the poll's 3.7 percentage-point margin of error. Another 7 percent were undecided — a key category of voters both parties are spending millions of dollars to sway with President Barack Obama's former Senate seat on the line in a nationally significant contest.

Los Angeles Times

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France: Majority Now See Sarkozy as Good President

Image via Wikipedia

Do you think Nicolas Sarkozy is a good president, or a bad president?

	Jul. 2009	May 2009
A good president	53%	41%
A bad president	38%	55%
Not sure	9%	4%

Source: CSA / VSD
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,011 French adults, conducted on Jul. 29 and Jul. 30, 2009. No margin of error was provided.

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Honduras: Obama BFF Zelaya Fails in Attempt to Re-Enter Country

Honduras blocked ousted President Manuel Zelaya's return from exile on Sunday and the country faces growing international isolation for staging Central America's first military coup since the Cold War.

Zelaya tried to fly back from Washington and land in Tegucigalpa, but clashes between his supporters and troops at the airport forced him to abort his plan one week after troops seized him in his pajamas and bundled him out of the country.

Reuters

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Honduras: Zelaya Ousted

Image via Wikipedia

It's funny that some people are reporting this as a military 'coup' when in fact it was President Manuel Zelaya who attempted a coup. The military was just doing what the Honduras Supreme Court ordered it to do, which was to remove Zelaya.

Reagan Rated as Best President

Here are the top 5 presidents of all time, according to Gallup:

I would have it 1) Washington 2) Lincoln 3) Reagan 4) Theodore Roosevelt 5) Jefferson.

Sarah Palin Closer to Presidential Run?

She has unveiled her new PAC.
A hot, Alaskan PAC.

2010 Census Likely to be Huge Boost for GOP in 2012, 2016, 2020

Likely Gainers:
Texas +4 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
Arizona +2 (Helps Republicans)
Florida +2 (Slightly Helps Republicans)
Georgia +1 (Helps Republicans)
Nevada +1 (Toss Up)
North Carolina +1 (Slightly Helps Republicans)
Oregon +1 (Helps Democrats)
South Carolina +1 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
Utah +1 (Greatly Helps Republicans)

Likely Losers:
California -1 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
Ohio -2 (Toss Up)
Illinois -1 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
Iowa -1 (Slightly Helps Republicans)
Louisiana -1 (Helps Democrats)
Massachusetts -1 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
Michigan -1 (Helps Republicans)
Minnesota -1 (Helps Republicans)
Missouri -1 (Slightly Helps Democrats)
New Jersey -1 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
New York -2 (Greatly Helps Republicans)
Pennsylvania -1 (Helps Republicans)

Based on current census projections. Final numbers may vary slightly.

War Brewing Between Catholics and Obama on Abortion?

The nation's Roman Catholic bishops vowed Tuesday to forcefully confront the Obama administration over its support for abortion rights, saying the church and religious freedom could be under attack in the new presidential administration.

In an impassioned discussion on Catholics in public life, several bishops said they would accept no compromise on abortion policy. Many condemned Catholics who had argued it was morally acceptable to back President-elect Obama because he pledged to reduce abortion rates.

And several prelates promised to call out Catholic policy makers on their failures to follow church teaching. Bishop Joseph Martino of Scranton, Pa., singled out Vice President-elect Biden, a Catholic, Scranton native who supports abortion rights.

"I cannot have a vice president-elect coming to Scranton to say he's learned his values there when those values are utterly against the teachings of the Catholic Church," Martino said. The Obama-Biden press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Associated Press

Final Electoral Vote Projection: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

Electoral College: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-poller as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This has been my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number.

Tomorrow, my final projection! Woohoo!

Here is the state of the Presidential Race

Today, Monday, November 3, 2008:

Image created with the Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This is my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote. (Checking to early voting regularly to see how it is going. Obviously I can not know Election Day early voting.)
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number I think.

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Sunday, November 2, 2008:

Electoral Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Projection: McCain/Palin 278, Obama/Biden 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 27, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral Map: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Saturday, October 25, 2008:

Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral interactive electoral map.