Arizona: Hayworth Only 5 pts Behind McCain

Arizona Survey of 510 Likely Voters
April 13, 2010

Election 2010: Arizona Republican Primary for Senate
John McCain	47%
J.D. Hayworth	42%
Some other candidate	2%
Not sure	8%

Rasmussen Reports

Arizona: McCain or Hayworth Would Win General Election

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in AZ
April 13, 2010

Election 2010: Arizona Senate
John McCain (R)	54%
Rodney Glassman (D)	32%
Some other candidate	8%
Not sure	6%

Election 2010: Arizona Senate
J.D. Hayworth (R)	48%
Rodney Glassman (D)	39%
Some other candidate	7%
Not sure	7%

Rasmussen Reports

Related articles 

• Oh my: McCain 47, Hayworth 42 (hotair.com)
• It's funny what a primary can do (washingtonmonthly.com)
• McCain Says He's No Maverick (politicalwire.com)

Sarah Palin's Last Twitter as Governor

Last state twitter. Thank you Alaska! I love you. God bless Alaska. God bless the U.S.A.

Related articles

• Sarah Palin Steps Down As Alaska's Governor (inquisitr.com)
• Sarah Palin steps down as governor of Alaska amid dwindling popularity (telegraph.co.uk)
• Sarah Palin camp secures online identity for 2012 Presidential race (inquisitr.com)

Even Washington Post Admits Palins Saved McCain From Worse Loss

Love her or loathe her, the data appear somewhere close to conclusive that Palin did little to help -- and, in fact, did some to hurt -- McCain's attempts to reach out to independents and Democrats. But just because Palin doesn't appear to have helped McCain move to the middle doesn't mean that picking her was the wrong move.

Remember where McCain found himself this past summer. He had won the Republican nomination, but the GOP base clearly felt little buy-in into his campaign. A slew of national polls reflected that energy gap, with Democrats revved up about the election and their candidate and Republicans somewhere between tepid and glum.

Enter Palin, who was embraced with a bear hug by the party's conservative base. All of a sudden, cultural conservatives were thrilled at the chance to put "one of their own" in the White House. In fact, of the 60 percent of voters who told exit pollsters that McCain's choice of Palin was a "factor" in their final decision, the Arizona senator won 56 percent to 43 percent.

For skittish conservatives looking for more evidence that McCain understood their needs and concerns, Palin did the trick. It's hard to imagine conservatives rallying to McCain -- even to the relatively limited extent that they did -- without Palin on the ticket. And without the base, McCain's loss could have been far worse.

Source: Washington Post

Unmarried Women Responsible for Obama Taking Power

"If not for the overwhelming support of unmarried women, John McCain would have won the women's vote and with it, the White House," said the international research firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.

Tuesday night, unmarried women supported the Democratic candidate by a stunning 70 to 29 percent margin, the firm said in a summary of its calculations, based on the Edison/Mitofsky National Election
Pool published by CNN.
World Net Daily

Maybe there's a reason these broads are unmarried...if they are attracted to the slick and sleazy type they are going to be dumped on by men for the rest of their life.

I have to say I totally did not see this demographic problem coming. That is what happens when a generations of girls are brought up by their TV sets and not by parents. Instead of doing what your parents teach you is right, you do what the TV tells you to do, and that is certainly true with this past election.

Final Electoral Vote Projection: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

Electoral College: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-poller as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This has been my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number.

Tomorrow, my final projection! Woohoo!

Here is the state of the Presidential Race

Today, Monday, November 3, 2008:

Image created with the Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This is my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote. (Checking to early voting regularly to see how it is going. Obviously I can not know Election Day early voting.)
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number I think.

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Sunday, November 2, 2008:

Electoral Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Is the GOP Base More Motivated Than the Liberal Base?

Everyone had assumed a massive tidal wave of left-wing Obama fanatics would give him an insurmountable lead in the early voting.
That didn't happen.
People are still assuming Obama will have a larger turnout than McCain/Palin...just not as much as they thought. I still think it is likely that the turnout will be about equal, perhaps Dems +2, in which case Obama probably loses.
Campaign Spot has a nice article about how the conservative base is probably being undercounted by the media:

And if the GOP base is fired up and showing up in places like Texas and South Carolina, is there some reason it wouldn't show up in Indiana, North Carolina or Virginia? I suppose it's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Whole Story at Campaign Spot

McCain Takes the Lead

Zogby has this result for Friday: McCain 48, Obama 47.

Source: Drudge Report

Nevada: Early Voting Shows McCain Probably Takes the State

Now, yesterday's headline might have been a little hyperbolic — it's still possible that massive numbers of Nevada Republicans stay home, or that massive numbers of Nevada Republicans vote for Obama. But right now, a huge advantage in terms of which party shows up for early voting has translated to a surprisingly modest lead for Obama. Unless there is something glaringly off-base about these numbers, then McCain will carry Nevada on Tuesday, as long If pro-McCain Republicans show up and vote.
Campaign Spot

And there's the caveat: If Republicans show up. If they pull another 2006, they get what they deserve. If it's like 2004, 2002 or 2000, McCain and America wins.

Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:



Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Obama, Socialists: Right Where McCain Wants Them

Yesterday's Gallup shocker (a 2 point gap in the "likely voter" model) is going to have a follow up today if Drudge is right: A Rasmussen poll narrowing the gap to 3 points. Now we know why John McCain and Sarah Palin were both in PA yesterday. The election is tightening across the map as those of us who remember 1976 have been predicting all along. Barack Obama represents a much more radical alternative than Jimmy Carter did in '76, and Carter's unusual profile sent voters by the millions towards Gerald Ford in the closing days. The same thing is happening this year as the very well known and very reliable John McCain enters his last big comeback within striking distance and very much on target.
Hugh Hewitt

New Hampshire: McCain Surge Raising Sununu's Numbers as Well

“Last Monday, October 20th, Senator Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by six points (41% Sununu/47% Shaheen/5% Blevens). By Thursday, October 23rd, Sununu had narrowed the gap to just three points (43% Sununu/46% Shaheen/5%Blevens). As Election Day draws closer, it is clear that in a tight race, the momentum is on Sununu’s side,” writes Glenn Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.
NOW! Hamphsire

Palin Keeps Attracting Huge Crowds

Despite freezing weather (literally), 14,000 people in Salem, Virginia (including my family) waited for hours to see Gov. Palin. The event was originally scheduled to be held in the Civic Center but was moved to the football stadium to accommodate the crowd. The weather didn't bother Palin though..."I love the weather because it reminds me of home," she said.
Kevin McCullough Blog

Gallup: Presidential Race Down to 2 pts

The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup's traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup's expanded model.
Gallup

Rasmussen: Obama Lead in Pennsylvania Plummets to 7

Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama
Date	McCain	Obama
10/27/2008	46%	53%
10/06/2008	41%	54%
09/28/2008	42%	50%

Taking into account Rasmussen's oversampling of Democrats and a Bradley effect of 2 or 3 points, this race is now tied.

PUMAs Confident McCain Will Win Pennsylvania

Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it. Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter, for the simple fact that these “Reagan Democrats” weren’t identified and labeled until AFTER the election.
Hillbuzz (PUMA site)