Final Electoral Vote Projection: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

Electoral College: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-poller as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This has been my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number.

Tomorrow, my final projection! Woohoo!

Here is the state of the Presidential Race

Today, Monday, November 3, 2008:

Image created with the Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This is my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote. (Checking to early voting regularly to see how it is going. Obviously I can not know Election Day early voting.)
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number I think.

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Sunday, November 2, 2008:

Electoral Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:



Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Projection: McCain/Palin 278, Obama/Biden 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 27, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral Map: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Saturday, October 25, 2008:

Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral interactive electoral map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

I guess this should be a daily feature now, since there is only about a week and a half left until the election. There is no change from yesterday

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Friday, October 24, 2008:


Map created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Thursday, October 23, 2008:

Electoral College Projection: McCain 293, Obama 245

Averaging out the state by state polls, correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats, including an increased Black turnout, an energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote, voter fraud and throwing in a modest Bradley Effect... here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 20, 2008:


Created using Real Clear Politics' interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 279, Obama 259

Averaging out the state by state polls, correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats, including an increased Black turnout, an energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote, voter fraud and throwing in a modest Bradley Effect... here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Friday, October 17, 2008:

Created using Real Clear Politics interactive Electoral College Map

Electoral College: Obama 286, McCain 252

Averaging out the state by state polls, correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats, including an increased Black turnout, an energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote, voter fraud and throwing in a modest Bradley Effect... here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Tuesday, October 14, 2008:

Electoral College: Obama 277, McCain 261

Averaging out the state by state polls, correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats, including an increased Black turnout, an energized youth vote, an apathetic youth vote, voter fraud and throwing in a modest Bradley Effect... here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Thursday, October 9, 2008:

Created using the Real Clear Politics Electoral Vote Calculator.

Electoral College: McCain 284, Obama 254

Averaging out the state by state polls, correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats, including an increased Black turnout, voter fraud and throwing in a modest Bradley Effect... here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 6, 2008:



Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral map calculator.
Click on map to enlarge.

Electoral College Projection: McCain 336, Obama 202

If the election were held today...
Map created using Real Clear Politics electoral map generator.

By the way, I feel vindicated by this AP/Yahoo poll showing that Obama may under perform by up to 6% on election day. People have criticized me for taking this probability into account in my projections, but as it turns out I was actually being generous to Obama. I have used at most 5% and am now using 4% since I believe more of the public has gotten to know both candidates.

Electoral College Projection Shows McCain Lead Growing

If the election were held today...
McCain/Palin 342
Obama/Biden 196

Click on map to enlarge.

Electoral Vote Projection: McCain 310, Obama 228

If the race were held today...

Electoral Map: McCain 312, Obama 226

The Interested American Projection as of April 7, 2008.
As expected, Obama picks up several small red states, but loses several large blue states.
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