As expected, Obama picks up several small red states, but loses several large blue states.
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"Fourscore and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting-place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men, living and dead who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us--that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion--that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation under God shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth."
-- Abraham Lincoln
November 19, 1863
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
Amendment II
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
Amendment III
No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.
Amendment IV
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
Amendment V
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
Amendment VI
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.
Amendment VII
In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.
Amendment VIII
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.
Amendment IX
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
Amendment X
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
Obama loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to McCain? I would say this map was colored in by Sean Hannity or some other neoconservative professional-hack. (The same neocon hacks who say he would only win Illinois, Hawaii, Minnesota, California, Delaware, DC, and maybe a couple of West Coast or New England States.) Then again, it shows Obama winning all four of the previously red states he was anticipated to win. (Only two of which, Iowa and Colorado, are a sure bet. Nevada and New Mexico are realistic possibilities and he will almost certainly win one or the other, but the odds of winning both are not so high.) So in light of this, I would not call it a neocon hack job...
ReplyDeleteBut what about the results in Wisconsin and Michigan? There is no way in HELL that McInsane will win Michigan! He lost to Romney of all people in the primary. And you can not write off MI as a Clinton state, seeing as Hillary Clinton was the only candidate on the ballot in the sham Democratic primary. (At least I understand why the map has McCain winning New Hampshire, seeing as the winners were Clinton and McCain, and Bush won that state against Gore back in 2000. But NH is the only traditionally blue state McCain can ever even DREAM of winning.)
What about Pennsylvania? Another loyally Democratic state. Does anybody really think that Pennsylvanians are stupid or thin-skinned enough to take offense to Obama's bitter comments? I am going to assume that Pennsylvanians are (a) intelligent enough to understand what was implied, and (b) tough enough to handle any constructive criticism.
Likewise, Missouri and even a couple of Bible Belt states may see some upsets for McCain. (Unlikely but with dissatisfaction for McCain, coupled with mobilization of the African-American voting bloc to the Democrats, added to Bob Barr's spoiler effect, you may see a surprise or two.)
I am forced to conclude that whoever made the above map was high!
Here are some FAR MORE REALISTIC SCENARIOS:
1-A. Obama wins all of the "Kerry states" plus the four new blue states.
OBAMA - 278
McCain - 260
2-A. Obama wins all the "Kerry states" plus Iowa and Colorado but not New Mexico or Nevada.
Obama - 268
MCCAIN - 270
3-A. Obama wins all the "Kerry states" plus Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada or New Mexico.
OBAMA - 273
McCain - 265
Now to be fair, let's see if McCain wins NH, the only traditionally blue state he has a shot at winning.
1-B. Same as 1-A only minus N.H.
OBAMA - 274
McCain - 264
2-B. Same as 2-A only minus N.H.
Obama - 264
MCCAIN - 274
3-B. Same as 3-A only minus N.H., similar to Bush v. Gore only this time Democrats take Iowa and Colorado.
Obama - 269
McCain -269
So in more realistic scenarios, Obama beats McCain three ways, McCain beats Obama two ways, and they tie one way.
Of course that ignores the slim chance Obama wins Missouri, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, or a heartland state. None of these are likely enough to bet on, but if one is willing to entertain the fantasy where McCain wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, why not?