As expected, Obama picks up several small red states, but loses several large blue states.
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Monday, April 7, 2008
Electoral Map: McCain 312, Obama 226
The Interested American Projection as of April 7, 2008.
As expected, Obama picks up several small red states, but loses several large blue states.
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As expected, Obama picks up several small red states, but loses several large blue states.
Powered by 270ToWin.com
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Obama loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to McCain? I would say this map was colored in by Sean Hannity or some other neoconservative professional-hack. (The same neocon hacks who say he would only win Illinois, Hawaii, Minnesota, California, Delaware, DC, and maybe a couple of West Coast or New England States.) Then again, it shows Obama winning all four of the previously red states he was anticipated to win. (Only two of which, Iowa and Colorado, are a sure bet. Nevada and New Mexico are realistic possibilities and he will almost certainly win one or the other, but the odds of winning both are not so high.) So in light of this, I would not call it a neocon hack job...
ReplyDeleteBut what about the results in Wisconsin and Michigan? There is no way in HELL that McInsane will win Michigan! He lost to Romney of all people in the primary. And you can not write off MI as a Clinton state, seeing as Hillary Clinton was the only candidate on the ballot in the sham Democratic primary. (At least I understand why the map has McCain winning New Hampshire, seeing as the winners were Clinton and McCain, and Bush won that state against Gore back in 2000. But NH is the only traditionally blue state McCain can ever even DREAM of winning.)
What about Pennsylvania? Another loyally Democratic state. Does anybody really think that Pennsylvanians are stupid or thin-skinned enough to take offense to Obama's bitter comments? I am going to assume that Pennsylvanians are (a) intelligent enough to understand what was implied, and (b) tough enough to handle any constructive criticism.
Likewise, Missouri and even a couple of Bible Belt states may see some upsets for McCain. (Unlikely but with dissatisfaction for McCain, coupled with mobilization of the African-American voting bloc to the Democrats, added to Bob Barr's spoiler effect, you may see a surprise or two.)
I am forced to conclude that whoever made the above map was high!
Here are some FAR MORE REALISTIC SCENARIOS:
1-A. Obama wins all of the "Kerry states" plus the four new blue states.
OBAMA - 278
McCain - 260
2-A. Obama wins all the "Kerry states" plus Iowa and Colorado but not New Mexico or Nevada.
Obama - 268
MCCAIN - 270
3-A. Obama wins all the "Kerry states" plus Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada or New Mexico.
OBAMA - 273
McCain - 265
Now to be fair, let's see if McCain wins NH, the only traditionally blue state he has a shot at winning.
1-B. Same as 1-A only minus N.H.
OBAMA - 274
McCain - 264
2-B. Same as 2-A only minus N.H.
Obama - 264
MCCAIN - 274
3-B. Same as 3-A only minus N.H., similar to Bush v. Gore only this time Democrats take Iowa and Colorado.
Obama - 269
McCain -269
So in more realistic scenarios, Obama beats McCain three ways, McCain beats Obama two ways, and they tie one way.
Of course that ignores the slim chance Obama wins Missouri, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, or a heartland state. None of these are likely enough to bet on, but if one is willing to entertain the fantasy where McCain wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, why not?