Monday, August 25, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection: McCain 310, Obama 228

If the race were held today...
Posted by Migulski at 25.8.08
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9 comments :

  1. Anonymous3:56 PM, August 26, 2008

    Keep dreaming!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous6:54 PM, August 26, 2008

    Michigan (Obama currently ahead by 4%) and New Hampshire (Obama ahead by 2%) are possibilities, but I think Minnesota is a bit of a stretch. Obama currently leads by an average of 5%, with a recent poll putting him up by 10%. If Romney or Pawlenty were tapped to be VP... eh, I don't know if either of them would be enough to carry it. Keep up the good work!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Migulski8:03 PM, August 26, 2008

    I am using the Real Clear Politics average as a starting point, then adding the Bradley Effect (a small percentage of people will say they will vote for Obama because they feel it is what the poll taker wants to hear). Toward the end of the campaign, Obama did worse in several swing states than the polls said he would.

    So I am using a combination of cold straight data and my own prediction of how much a factor the Bradley Effect will have on the race.

    And finally, if you don't like the results, they change several times a week. It has been an especially turbulent time in the polls since Obama went to Berlin.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous7:56 AM, August 28, 2008

    John McCain at 310 electoral votes? No way! You must be assuming things that have yet to happen. John McCain still has a chance of winning this election; it's possible that the Republican National Convention will be a smashing success far stronger than the Democratic National Convention. It's also possible that the Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl this year.

    The Obama/Biden campaign can yet collapse... but don't presume that it will collapse. There's always some possibility of a personal scandal yet undefined. It's just as likely that John McCain's candidacy will tank. That is a wash.


    I can see how your scenario works out.

    1. The Swiftboat smear machine will succeed against Obama even more effectively than it did against Kerry.

    2. Young voters come to their senses (as the American Hard Right defines common sense) and recognize that the international oil cartel, the military-industrial complex, real estate scammers, and subprime lenders are their best friends. They also come to recognize that labor unions are enemies of personal freedom that comes only from being overworked and underpaid and that the right to keep a Stinger missile is the best defense of liberty.

    3. Barack Obama is shown in a compromising photograph with some pretty white woman, and nobody catches on to its status as a forgery.

    4. The dirty tricks campaign of Karl Rove is even more successful this time.

    5. Barack Obama can be linked to the late serial murderer John Wayne Gacy.

    6. Joe Biden proves to be the new Thomas Eagleton.

    7. President Bush's approval ratings soar.

    Those are all possible. None of them is likely. In theory, it's entirely possible that Dallas will be awarded the next available Winter Olympics.

    ReplyDelete
  5. judas_priest3:20 PM, September 02, 2008

    And I thought you Republican/Conservtives were law and order types who are strong against illegal hallucinatory drugs.

    Would you care to reevaluate your pipe dream allocation of electoral votes in the light of the current polling?

    BTW, it is clear thet either you have no true understanding of the dynamics of the "Bradley" effect and why its application this year is likely far overstated, even it it exists this year. (BTW, it does not apply to robo-polls - no interviewer/respondent interaction - so Rasmussen polls are not subject to it.)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Migulski3:59 PM, September 02, 2008

    It is the Democrats who are worrying about the Bradley effect and bringing it up in the media. It used to be a phrase I would occasionally hear in the past, but in this presidential election it is being thrown around freely.

    For example, some people 'blamed' Hillary's late primary wins on people saying they would vote for Obama because they thought that was what they were supposed to say. Obama supporters have been calling this the Bradley effect THIS year. So if they believe it is something that still exists, why shouldn't I?

    The polls are very volatile right now at the state level (for example, one poll showed McCain leading in New Mexico by 4 pts, and then 11 days later another poll had Obama up by 13 pts.)

    If there is no Bradley effect at all, then the race is 273 for Obama and 265 for McCain according to the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls.

    And finally, I will change my allocation of electoral votes when I have a reason to do so. This is not my final prediction.

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  7. judas_priest6:18 PM, September 02, 2008

    Bogdan:

    The reason you shouldn't use the Bradley effect is that most recent studies, done by people who know how to analyze data, day that it is overrated and does not exist in certain situations. And you say you adjusted for it but don't say how. It's your site and it you want to pull numbers out of the air it's your right, but your stuff will not be taken seriously by people who know the field.

    BTW, In NM, you apparently picked the one poll that went to McCain out of the eight taken since Obama clinched the nomination. The average margin, including the poll which showed McCain ahead, was +6.2% for Obama. That's one hell of a Bradley effect you must be assuming.

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  8. Anonymous6:18 PM, September 09, 2008

    The person who colored in this map is living in Fantasyland. Apparently he is either dilusional or completely out of touch with the reality of this election. It will be close no doubt, but this projection is ridiculous. If McCain wins, it will certainly not be by 82 electoral votes. Even his winning, if the vote were held today, flies in the face of the projections of virtually every other reliable projection site on the web.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous5:09 PM, September 17, 2008

    This map is waaaaaay too old. When is it going to be updated?

    ReplyDelete

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