Monday, August 25, 2008
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"Fourscore and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent a new nation, conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting-place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The brave men, living and dead who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living rather to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us--that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion--that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain, that this nation under God shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth."
-- Abraham Lincoln
November 19, 1863
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
Amendment II
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
Amendment III
No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.
Amendment IV
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
Amendment V
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
Amendment VI
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.
Amendment VII
In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.
Amendment VIII
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.
Amendment IX
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
Amendment X
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
Keep dreaming!!!
ReplyDeleteMichigan (Obama currently ahead by 4%) and New Hampshire (Obama ahead by 2%) are possibilities, but I think Minnesota is a bit of a stretch. Obama currently leads by an average of 5%, with a recent poll putting him up by 10%. If Romney or Pawlenty were tapped to be VP... eh, I don't know if either of them would be enough to carry it. Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteI am using the Real Clear Politics average as a starting point, then adding the Bradley Effect (a small percentage of people will say they will vote for Obama because they feel it is what the poll taker wants to hear). Toward the end of the campaign, Obama did worse in several swing states than the polls said he would.
ReplyDeleteSo I am using a combination of cold straight data and my own prediction of how much a factor the Bradley Effect will have on the race.
And finally, if you don't like the results, they change several times a week. It has been an especially turbulent time in the polls since Obama went to Berlin.
John McCain at 310 electoral votes? No way! You must be assuming things that have yet to happen. John McCain still has a chance of winning this election; it's possible that the Republican National Convention will be a smashing success far stronger than the Democratic National Convention. It's also possible that the Detroit Lions will win the Super Bowl this year.
ReplyDeleteThe Obama/Biden campaign can yet collapse... but don't presume that it will collapse. There's always some possibility of a personal scandal yet undefined. It's just as likely that John McCain's candidacy will tank. That is a wash.
I can see how your scenario works out.
1. The Swiftboat smear machine will succeed against Obama even more effectively than it did against Kerry.
2. Young voters come to their senses (as the American Hard Right defines common sense) and recognize that the international oil cartel, the military-industrial complex, real estate scammers, and subprime lenders are their best friends. They also come to recognize that labor unions are enemies of personal freedom that comes only from being overworked and underpaid and that the right to keep a Stinger missile is the best defense of liberty.
3. Barack Obama is shown in a compromising photograph with some pretty white woman, and nobody catches on to its status as a forgery.
4. The dirty tricks campaign of Karl Rove is even more successful this time.
5. Barack Obama can be linked to the late serial murderer John Wayne Gacy.
6. Joe Biden proves to be the new Thomas Eagleton.
7. President Bush's approval ratings soar.
Those are all possible. None of them is likely. In theory, it's entirely possible that Dallas will be awarded the next available Winter Olympics.
And I thought you Republican/Conservtives were law and order types who are strong against illegal hallucinatory drugs.
ReplyDeleteWould you care to reevaluate your pipe dream allocation of electoral votes in the light of the current polling?
BTW, it is clear thet either you have no true understanding of the dynamics of the "Bradley" effect and why its application this year is likely far overstated, even it it exists this year. (BTW, it does not apply to robo-polls - no interviewer/respondent interaction - so Rasmussen polls are not subject to it.)
It is the Democrats who are worrying about the Bradley effect and bringing it up in the media. It used to be a phrase I would occasionally hear in the past, but in this presidential election it is being thrown around freely.
ReplyDeleteFor example, some people 'blamed' Hillary's late primary wins on people saying they would vote for Obama because they thought that was what they were supposed to say. Obama supporters have been calling this the Bradley effect THIS year. So if they believe it is something that still exists, why shouldn't I?
The polls are very volatile right now at the state level (for example, one poll showed McCain leading in New Mexico by 4 pts, and then 11 days later another poll had Obama up by 13 pts.)
If there is no Bradley effect at all, then the race is 273 for Obama and 265 for McCain according to the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls.
And finally, I will change my allocation of electoral votes when I have a reason to do so. This is not my final prediction.
Bogdan:
ReplyDeleteThe reason you shouldn't use the Bradley effect is that most recent studies, done by people who know how to analyze data, day that it is overrated and does not exist in certain situations. And you say you adjusted for it but don't say how. It's your site and it you want to pull numbers out of the air it's your right, but your stuff will not be taken seriously by people who know the field.
BTW, In NM, you apparently picked the one poll that went to McCain out of the eight taken since Obama clinched the nomination. The average margin, including the poll which showed McCain ahead, was +6.2% for Obama. That's one hell of a Bradley effect you must be assuming.
The person who colored in this map is living in Fantasyland. Apparently he is either dilusional or completely out of touch with the reality of this election. It will be close no doubt, but this projection is ridiculous. If McCain wins, it will certainly not be by 82 electoral votes. Even his winning, if the vote were held today, flies in the face of the projections of virtually every other reliable projection site on the web.
ReplyDeleteThis map is waaaaaay too old. When is it going to be updated?
ReplyDelete