Image via WikipediaPRINCETON, NJ -- In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting.
Pileggi says he wants to change that “winner-take-all system,” and guide the system used in Maine and Nebraska through Pennsylvania’s Legislature this fall, before the 2012 presidential votes are cast. Republicans in both chambers say the bill has a strong chance of moving fast enough to be approved for next year.
“The system we have now, is a winner-take-all system, the system I am proposing would more precisely conform the electoral college to the popular vote and it would make the presidential election more relevant across the state, give voters more of a sense that they are active participants in the presidential election.”
According to the results of the poll conducted by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., 17 percent of Republican voters would support Gibbons in the primary, well behind 33 percent for Sandoval.
In a Democratic primary that includes Goodman, Reid got support from 13 percent of voters, trailing Buckley's 25 percent and Goodman's 34 percent.
Sandoval was the respondents' favorite candidate in every general election scenario, leading Goodman by 7 percentage points, Buckley by 8 and Reid by 17.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_sZf6pnnd-0RhZjgeMGxdCWdE5EMYvguiApjA1JEFX1bsC7tf5ULPzxjjjIZd7E8p3oRLws8qCu96Z3ay-t2AiJvjXaDZZ5g4J-deyNwKDgGF9IV7YIo1Qu3s2pVF6xYH9XIJ4MXk5vZJ8rvp6h4Fck=s0-d)
Date | Dem | GOP |
|---|---|---|
41% | 39% | |
41% | 37% | |
41% | 39% | |
40% | 39% | |
42% | 38% | |
42% | 35% | |
42% | 35% | |
42% | 36% | |
43% | 37% | |
44% | 36% | |
42% | 37% | |
42% | 38% | |
43% | 40% | |
44% | 39% | |
42% | 38% | |
43% | 41% | |
47% | 41% | |
47% | 40% | |
45% | 39% | |
46% | 38% | |
45% | 37% | |
46% | 37% | |
45% | 38% | |
44% | 38% | |
45% | 37% | |
46% | 36% | |
46% | 35% | |
46% | 36% | |
45% | 37% | |
46% | 36% | |
47% | 34% | |
45% | 36% | |
46% | 36% | |
47% | 34% | |
47% | 35% | |
47% | 34% | |
48% | 34% | |
47% | 34% | |
47% | 39% | |
46% | 41% | |
43% | 37% | |
44% | 40% | |
44% | 40% | |
43% | 38% | |
46% | 36% | |
46% | 35% | |
48% | 36% | |
50% | 32% | |
47% | 37% | |
46% | 37% | |
46% | 34% | |
45% | 38% | |
47% | 36% | |
45% | 35% |
Love her or loathe her, the data appear somewhere close to conclusive that Palin did little to help -- and, in fact, did some to hurt -- McCain's attempts to reach out to independents and Democrats. But just because Palin doesn't appear to have helped McCain move to the middle doesn't mean that picking her was the wrong move.
Remember where McCain found himself this past summer. He had won the Republican nomination, but the GOP base clearly felt little buy-in into his campaign. A slew of national polls reflected that energy gap, with Democrats revved up about the election and their candidate and Republicans somewhere between tepid and glum.
Enter Palin, who was embraced with a bear hug by the party's conservative base. All of a sudden, cultural conservatives were thrilled at the chance to put "one of their own" in the White House. In fact, of the 60 percent of voters who told exit pollsters that McCain's choice of Palin was a "factor" in their final decision, the Arizona senator won 56 percent to 43 percent.
For skittish conservatives looking for more evidence that McCain understood their needs and concerns, Palin did the trick. It's hard to imagine conservatives rallying to McCain -- even to the relatively limited extent that they did -- without Palin on the ticket. And without the base, McCain's loss could have been far worse.
Source: Washington Post
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
This is why I would urge caution when interpreting all this polling data. We're talking about disagreements among good pollsters. I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can't be chalked up to statistical "noise." That gives me great pause.
Real Clear Politics
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral interactive electoral map.
If a national election took place tomorrow, which list would you vote for?
| Centre-Right | 56% |
| Centre-Left | 44% |
Source: Istituto Demopolis
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,006 Italian adults, conducted from Jan. 25 to Jan. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.
If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
| Nov. 16 | Oct. 24 | Oct. 6 | |
| Conservative | 41% | 41% | 38% |
| Labour | 35% | 38% | 41% |
| Liberal Democrats | 13% | 11% | 11% |
| Other | 11% | 10% | 10% |
Source: YouGov
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,983 British adults, conducted from Nov. 14 to Nov. 16, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
2006 ELECTION OVERVIEW
Top Overall Donor
Rank | Contributor | Total Contributions | To Dems | To Repubs |
1 | ActBlue | $4,655,402 | 100% | 0% |
2 | National Assn of Realtors | $3,785,305 | 49% | 51% |
3 | EMILY's List | $3,588,379 | 100% | 0% |
4 | Goldman Sachs | $3,434,616 | 62% | 37% |
5 | Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte | $3,064,821 | 100% | 0% |
6 | National Beer Wholesalers Assn | $2,967,250 | 31% | 69% |
7 | Club for Growth | $2,930,628 | 4% | 96% |
8 | National Assn of Home Builders | $2,901,250 | 26% | 73% |
9 | National Auto Dealers Assn | $2,823,100 | 30% | 70% |
10 | Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers | $2,819,953 | 97% | 3% |
11 | American Bankers Assn | $2,793,875 | 36% | 64% |
12 | Operating Engineers Union | $2,792,545 | 78% | 21% |
13 | Laborers Union | $2,686,750 | 85% | 15% |
14 | AT&T Inc | $2,676,447 | 34% | 66% |
15 | American Assn for Justice | $2,578,240 | 96% | 4% |
16 | Credit Union National Assn | $2,486,103 | 45% | 54% |
17 | General Electric | $2,456,905 | 40% | 59% |
18 | Citigroup Inc | $2,448,416 | 54% | 44% |
19 | United Parcel Service | $2,344,923 | 33% | 67% |
20 | Carpenters & Joiners Union | $2,294,673 | 74% | 25% |
21 | United Auto Workers | $2,229,740 | 99% | 1% |
22 | American Federation of Teachers | $2,116,748 | 99% | 1% |
23 | Teamsters Union | $2,094,481 | 91% | 8% |
24 | American Fedn of St/Cnty/Munic Employees | $2,069,338 | 99% | 1% |
25 | American Medical Assn | $2,037,759 | 31% | 69% |
26 | Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu | $2,027,309 | 28% | 72% |
27 | Lockheed Martin | $1,975,320 | 40% | 59% |
28 | Plumbers/Pipefitters Union | $1,965,850 | 91% | 9% |
29 | JP Morgan Chase & Co | $1,941,471 | 57% | 42% |
30 | Verizon Communications | $1,908,676 | 39% | 60% |
31 | National Education Assn | $1,908,427 | 89% | 11% |
32 | Bank of America | $1,905,583 | 44% | 55% |
33 | Microsoft Corp | $1,894,609 | 56% | 43% |
34 | International Assn of Fire Fighters | $1,872,105 | 72% | 27% |
35 | National Air Traffic Controllers Assn | $1,870,150 | 75% | 24% |
36 | Blue Cross/Blue Shield | $1,863,791 | 35% | 65% |
37 | Time Warner | $1,849,845 | 74% | 25% |
38 | Morgan Stanley | $1,843,733 | 49% | 49% |
39 | American Hospital Assn | $1,797,083 | 44% | 56% |
40 | UBS AG | $1,796,801 | 50% | 45% |
41 | Machinists/Aerospace Workers Union | $1,761,484 | 98% | 1% |
42 | Air Line Pilots Assn | $1,737,250 | 80% | 19% |
43 | Comcast Corp | $1,711,909 | 51% | 47% |
44 | American Dental Assn | $1,691,597 | 35% | 65% |
45 | Pfizer Inc | $1,684,689 | 31% | 68% |
46 | American Postal Workers Union | $1,634,000 | 95% | 4% |
47 | Communications Workers of America | $1,595,280 | 99% | 1% |
48 | United Food & Commercial Workers Union | $1,575,455 | 100% | 2% |
49 | National Assn of Letter Carriers | $1,567,300 | 88% | 11% |
50 | National Restaurant Assn | $1,549,046 | 12% | 87% |
51 | National Cable & Telecommunications Assn | $1,546,905 | 45% | 55% |
52 | Sheet Metal Workers Union | $1,543,200 | 95% | 4% |
53 | WPP Group | $1,535,631 | 40% | 59% |
54 | AFLAC Inc | $1,505,035 | 44% | 55% |
55 | Ironworkers Union | $1,485,900 | 88% | 12% |
56 | Natl Assn/Insurance & Financial Advisors | $1,480,150 | 40% | 60% |
57 | Service Employees International Union | $1,477,392 | 93% | 7% |
58 | FedEx Corp | $1,441,841 | 35% | 64% |
59 | Ernst & Young | $1,441,300 | 41% | 58% |
60 | AFL-CIO | $1,376,827 | 88% | 13% |
61 | Wal-Mart Stores | $1,363,526 | 31% | 69% |
62 | National Rural Electric Cooperative Assn | $1,328,866 | 43% | 56% |
63 | Patton Boggs LLP | $1,325,961 | 67% | 32% |
64 | Painters & Allied Trades Union | $1,297,665 | 72% | 28% |
65 | General Dynamics | $1,295,688 | 38% | 59% |
66 | Associated Builders & Contractors | $1,269,250 | 1% | 99% |
67 | Northrop Grumman | $1,265,811 | 36% | 63% |
68 | PricewaterhouseCoopers | $1,256,854 | 27% | 72% |
69 | Blank Rome LLP | $1,247,393 | 42% | 58% |
70 | Boeing Co | $1,246,891 | 42% | 57% |
71 | Every Republican is Crucial PAC | $1,245,842 | 0% | 100% |
72 | BellSouth Corp | $1,240,745 | 40% | 58% |
73 | Credit Suisse Group | $1,219,877 | 63% | 35% |
74 | Anheuser-Busch | $1,216,764 | 37% | 64% |
75 | Moveon.org | $1,208,798 | 100% | 0% |
76 | KPMG LLP | $1,197,183 | 35% | 65% |
77 | United Steelworkers of America | $1,189,100 | 100% | 0% |
78 | Union Pacific Corp | $1,183,266 | 20% | 80% |
79 | Koch Industries | $1,145,305 | 14% | 85% |
80 | United Transportation Union | $1,144,985 | 91% | 8% |
81 | Merrill Lynch | $1,143,433 | 47% | 52% |
82 | Akin, Gump et al | $1,143,404 | 60% | 39% |
83 | Altria Group | $1,140,803 | 36% | 65% |
84 | Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp | $1,139,194 | 28% | 72% |
85 | American Health Care Assn | $1,132,070 | 39% | 58% |
86 | Raytheon Co | $1,110,254 | 41% | 58% |
87 | DLA Piper Rudnick et al | $1,098,514 | 65% | 34% |
88 | American Crystal Sugar | $1,071,267 | 60% | 40% |
89 | Amgen Inc | $1,056,525 | 38% | 62% |
90 | Wachovia Corp | $1,052,844 | 38% | 62% |
91 | Freedom Project | $1,033,831 | 0% | 100% |
92 | Baron & Budd | $1,028,541 | 97% | 1% |
93 | New York Life Insurance | $1,010,346 | 53% | 46% |
94 | American Maritime Officers | $1,005,250 | 46% | 54% |
95 | FMR Corp | $992,901 | 38% | 61% |
96 | Independent Insurance Agents of America | $991,250 | 27% | 72% |
97 | Rely on Your Beliefs | $985,921 | 0% | 100% |
98 | Wells Fargo | $984,676 | 36% | 63% |
99 | Farm Credit Council | $972,180 | 37% | 63% |
100 | Viacom Inc | $967,506 | 82% | 18% |
METHODOLOGY: The numbers on this page are based on contributions from PACs and individuals giving $200 or more to federal candidates and parties as reported to the Federal Election Commission.
All the numbers on this page are for the 2006 election cycle and are based on data released by the FEC on Monday, February 19, 2007. Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics.
