Republicans Likely to Take Over Senate in 2012

Jeff Flake image by Getty Images via @daylifeReal Clear Politics: 

But the Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate aren’t particularly good. Right now Republicans hold 47 of the 100 seats; if they win the presidency, they would need to pick up three more seats to have a majority. As of today, they are favored to pick up two Democratic seats. Two Republican seats are tossups, along with six Democratic seats. If we assume Democrats pick off one of the two Republican tossups, and that Republican pick off half of the Democratic tossups, Republicans would have a 51-49 majority.

Related articles

• Senate race heats up in Arizona (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
• Attorney announces candidacy for Ariz. Senate seat (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Former party chairman entering Arizona Senate race (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• New at Reason: Jeff Flake on Republican Corruption, Federal Spending, and the Virtues of Divided Government (reason.com)
• Congressional Deficit-Cutting Group Faces an Uphill Fight - NYTimes.com (mbcalyn.wordpress.com)
• Gov Bev Perdue(D-NC) Hypes Meme to Prevent GOP Super Majority in Senate 2012: Suspend Elections (votingfemale.wordpress.com)
• Tough Odds for Democrats in Senate Races (politicalwire.com)
• Out Of Pocket: Have Republican's And The Audiences At The GOP Debates Gone Too Far With Their "Patriotism"??? (bossip.com)
• There Are No Safe Seats: (brothersjuddblog.com)
• Poll: Pennsylvania voters want to keep winner-take-all electoral system (thehill.com)

West Virginia: Bill Maloney Closing In, Tomblin Launches Attack Ads

Image via WikipediaFrom Campaign Spot on National Review Online:

Earl Ray Tomblin became governor when Joe Manchin was elected to the Senate last year. Tomblin began the race as a heavy favorite against Republican Bill Maloney, but this race is turning out a lot closer than most expected: “Whatever the ad’s effect on voters, the Tomblin ad suggests the race has narrowed and that Tomblin’s once formidable double-digit lead has shrunk. A recent poll suggested Tomblin was leading by only 6 points, though it had nearly a 4 percent margin of error.”

Related articles

• WV-2011 Governor: 46% Tomblin (D), 40% Maloney (R) (PPP 9/1-4) (huffingtonpost.com)
• W.Va. redistricting plan easy on GOP (politico.com)
• Race for West Virginia Governor Tightens (politicalwire.com)
• Pro-coal Ralliers Protest Revoked EPA Permit (indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com)
• Remember The Miners Announces Celebrity Guests at The Bob Huggins Fish Fry (prweb.com)
• States Trending Red (bokertov.typepad.com)

Michigan: Redistricting Map Would Combine Sander Levin & Gary Peters in One District

Image via Wikipedia

According to a map released Friday by Senate and House Republicans, Democratic U.S. Reps. Sander Levin of Royal Oak and Gary Peters of Oakland County's Bloomfield Township would end up in the same district, potentially forcing a runoff. Michigan is losing a congressional seat after seeing its population decline in the 2010 census. Republicans have drawn maps that would allow them to keep the nine districts they hold while shrinking the number of Democratic districts from six to five.
Real Clear Politics

Related articles

• Worst Example of Gerrymandering: Danville and the Tri-State Area (virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com)
• Michigan redistricting plan targets suburban Detroit Dems (thehill.com)
• Jalen Rose Pleads Guilty to Drunken Driving (nytimes.com)
• Former NBA player Rose pleads guilty to drunk driving (tsn.ca)
• Should judges come under fire for charitable work? (lesliebrodie.wordpress.com)
• Jalen Rose pleads guilty to drunk driving (theglobeandmail.com)
• Mich. governor, billionaire clash over new bridge (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Spotsylvania magisterial redistricting moves forward (virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com)
• MTAM Launches 'Made in Michigan' Mobile App Site (mobiletechassnmi.wordpress.com)

Senate Control: GOP 49, Democrats 51 (GOP +8)

Real Clear Politics

Nevada: Reid Trails Lowden, Tarkanian in Rasmussen Poll

"I must really SUCK!!!" Image via Wikipedia

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in NV
September 14, 2009

Election 2010: Nevada Senate Race
Sue Lowden (R)	50%
Harry Reid (D)	40%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure	5%

Election 2010: Nevada Senate Race
Danny Tarkanian (R)	50%
Harry Reid (D)	43%
Other	4%
Not sure	3%

Related articles

• Two Potential Challengers Would Beat Reid (politicalwire.com)
• Harry Reid is "on the ropes" (michellemalkin.com)
• 1994 All Over Again? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Will Reid Lose His Senate Seat to Take the Hit on Health Care? (campaignsilo.firedoglake.com)
• Another Poll Shows Reid Vulnerable (politicalwire.com)
• PA-Sen: More Hypocrisy from Arlen Specter (mydd.com)

2010 Senate Outlook

Alabama Hold
Alaska Hold
Arkansas Hold
Arizona Hold
California Hold
Colorado Toss Up
Connecticut GOP Pick Up
Delaware Toss Up
Florida Hold
Georgia Hold
Hawaii Hold
Idaho Hold
Illinois GOP Pick Up
Indiana Hold
Iowa Hold
Kansas Hold
Kentucky Toss Up
Louisiana Hold
Maryland Hold
Missouri Dem Pick Up
Nevada Toss Up
New Hampshire Toss Up
New York (Special Election) Hold
New York Hold
North Carolina Hold
North Dakota Hold
Ohio Dem Pick Up
Oklahoma Hold
Oregon Hold
Pennsylvania GOP Pick Up
South Carolina Hold
South Dakota Hold
Texas Hold
Utah Hold
Vermont Hold
Washington Hold
Wisconsin Hold

Lazio Goes After Cuomo: Preview of Governor's Race?

Image via Wikipedia

With polling continuing to show low public support for New York Gov. David A. Paterson, 2010 political watchers are shifting their attention to his fellow Democrat, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

In another sign that Cuomo is the consensus front-runner for the governor's race, GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio went after the popular attorney general Monday, putting out a press release condemning Cuomo's decision not to continue an investigation into the hiring of state Sen. Pedro Espada Jr.'s son, Pedro G. Espada, for a job with the state Senate Democrats.

Congressional Quarterly

Related articles

• Rick Lazio's Comeback (themoderatevoice.com)
• Rick Lazio Governor Run In New York Planned, AP Says (huffingtonpost.com)
• Lazio: Departure of Espada's son changes nothing (timesunion.com)
• Lazio pitches a unicameral legislature (timesunion.com)
• Albany Festers, and Voters Don't Clean House (nytimes.com)

Liberal GOP Senator Attacks 'Southerners'

Last time I looked, most of the South voted the right way, but Senator Voinovich's type of limp politics was not able to carry Ohio.

Image via Wikipedia

"We got too many Jim DeMints and Tom Coburns," Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) told the Columbus Dispatch. "It's the southerners."

Voinovich, a native Clevelander who retires after the 2010 election, continued after the southern elements of the GOP.

"They get on TV and go 'errrr, errrrr,'" he said. "People hear them and say, 'These people, they're southerners. The party's being taken over by southerners. What they hell they got to do with Ohio?'"

Source: The Hill

Related articles by Zemanta

• Senator Voinovich: "It's the Southerners" (mydd.com)
• OH-Sen: Voinovich lashes out at his regional rump party (dailykos.com)

California: Fiorina Within 4 pts of Boxer

Image of Carly Fiorina via Wikipedia

California Survey of 500 Likely Voters
July 22, 2009

Carly Fiorina (R)	41%
Barbara Boxer (D)	45%
Other	7%
Not Sure	7%

Rasmussen Reports

Related articles

• GOP Can Field All-Female 2012 White House Ticket w/out Palin (themoderatevoice.com)
• Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina Considering Senate Run [Politics] (gawker.com)
• Boxer Braces for Challenge from Carly Fiorina (usnews.com)

Democrats Have Received Palin Talking Points

It has been observed that Sarah-hating Democrat operatives have been told to repeat the word 'quitter' and supplied with pre-packaged phrases that include that word when speaking to the media about her or even leaving posts on web sites.

It's interesting that Barack Obama decided to quit his Senate term two years into it to run for president... he just didn't give up the seat so if he lost he would still be a senator. But that is okay, because... why? He's a man? He's America's first affirmative action president?

Is Kathleen Sebelius a quitter?
Joe Biden?
Janet Napolitano?
Hillary Rodham Quitter?

Delaware Senate: Castle Leading Biden by 8

Connecticut: Simmons Leads Dodd by 1

Potential Senate Matchup in Quinnipiac University Poll

Rob Simmons 43
Chris Dodd 42

Minnesota Recount May be Unconstitutional

The 2000 Supreme Court decision may have an effect on the 2008 (going into 2009) Minnesota senate race:

By a vote of 7-2, Bush v. Gore (2000) ruled that Florida's recount violated the principle that all votes must be treated uniformly. Applying precedents dating to the 1960s, the Court found that the Equal Protection Clause meant that ballots must be treated so as to give every vote equal weight. A state may not, by "arbitrary and disparate treatment, value one person's vote over that of another." Florida's lack of standards produced "unequal evaluation of ballots in several respects." The state's supreme court "ratified this uneven treatment" and created more of its own, and was unconstitutional.
Wall Street Journal

Blagojevich Wins? Burris May be Seated in The Senate

New York DEMOCRATS Rising Up Against Princess Caroline

Resistance is emerging among Democratic officials against Caroline Kennedy as she pursues Hillary Rodham Clinton’s seat in the United States Senate, with Gov. David A. Paterson bristling over suggestions that her selection is inevitable, according to his advisers, and other leading Democrats concerned that she is too beholden to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg.

The governor is frustrated and chagrined, the advisers said, because he believes that he extended Ms. Kennedy the chance to demonstrate her qualifications but that her operatives have exploited the opportunity to convey a sense that she is all but appointed already. He views this as an attempt to box him in, the advisers said.
New York Times via MSDNC

Sarah Palin Would Win GOP Senate Primary & General Election

Senate General Election

Murkowski (R) 49
Knowles (D) 41

Palin (R) 53
Knowles (D) 39

Murkowski (R) 56
French (D) 27

Palin (R) 58
French (D) 27

Republican Senate Primary
Senate
Murkowski 31
Palin 55

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (MoE 5% for Republican over-sample) (No trend lines).

Siena Poll: Andrew Cuomo 26, Princess Caroline von Schlossberg 23

But after meeting with Mayor Matt Driscoll, she ran into a buzz saw -- angry reporters who wanted her to do more talking and less listening.


"But you've never held public office so what experience [do you have]?" one reporter asked.

Actually, she did speak briefly in Syracuse.

"I wanted to come upstate and meet with Mayor Driscoll and others to tell them about my experience and also learn more about how Washington can help these communities," Kennedy said.

Her quick remarks fell flat. Reporters seemed to feel brushed off and they pursued her out.

"You're not going to answer questions at all?" one asked.

"Where you headed next?" another demanded.

To the car.

WCBS News

Georgia Senate Election Map

Source: CNN

Saxby Wins!

Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss handed the GOP a firewall against Democrats eager to flex their newfound political muscle in Washington, winning a bruising runoff battle Tuesday night that had captured the national limelight.

Chambliss' victory thwarted Democrats' hopes of winning a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. It came after a bitter monthlong runoff against Democrat Jim Martin that drew political luminaries from both parties to the state and flooded the airwaves with fresh attack ads weeks after campaigns elsewhere had ended.

Minnesota—where a recount is under way—now remains the only unresolved Senate contest in the country. But the stakes there are significantly lower now that Georgia has put a 60-seat Democratic supermajority out of reach.

With 92 percent of the precincts reporting, Chambliss captured 58 percent to Martin's 42 percent. Chambliss' win is a rare bright spot for Republicans in a year where they lost the White House as well as seats in the House and the Senate.
Breitbart

10 Worst Republican Senators

According to Human Events:

The senators below received the 10 most liberal scores for Republicans in the National Journal’s ratings of all senators based on their rollcall votes on key economic, social and foreign policy issues during 2007.

1. Snowe, Olympia (R.-Maine) 47.8

2. Collins, Susan (R.-Maine) 47.2

3. Smith, Gordon (R.-Ore.) 47.2 GONE!

4. Specter, Arlen (R.-Pa.) 45.5

5. Coleman, Norm, (R-Minn.) 42.5

6. Lugar, Richard (R.-Ind.) 41.8

7. Voinovich, George (R.-Ohio) 41.8

8. Warner, John (R.-Va.) 38.8 GONE!

9. Hagel, Chuck (R.-Neb.) 38.7 GONE!

10. Stevens, Ted, (R.-Alaska) 36 GONE!