October 25: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +1)

New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP) 

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

GOVERNOR
Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Florica: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 2 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Florida Attorney General: Bondi 44, Gelber 36

With less than two weeks until the general election, the candidates for Florida attorney general are making their differences known.
A News 13 Florida Decides/St. Petersburg Times exclusive statewide poll shows 44 percent of voters would vote for Republican candidate Pam Bondi, while 36 percent would vote for Democratic candidate Dan Gelber.

Central Florida News Channel 13

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New York Governor: Status Cuomo Leads Battle of 2 Angry New Yorkers by 14 pts

Image by Getty Images via @daylife New York Survey of 500 Likely Voters
October 19, 2010  

Election 2010: New York Governor
Carl Paladino (R)	37%
Andrew Cuomo (D)	51%
Some Other Candidate	5%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	6%

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New Jersey: SHOCK POLL Pallone 44; Little 43

And I had just posted a Pallone/Little story just minutes ago!
There are still quite a bit of undecideds in this race, and the old adage is that they will break about 2 to 1 AGAINST the incumbent. This is getting very interesting.

I also can't see Scott Sipprelle not winning his 12th district battle against Rush Holt if Anna Little wins her race (her district is much more Democrat than Sipprelle's 12th [although that too leans toward the Democrats]).

***

Republican numbers cruncher Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. shows Republican challenger Little with a shot to win in her challenge of a vulnerable U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch).
Commissioned by the Little campaign, Geller puts Pallone ahead of Little by one point, 44-43%, in a survey Geller conducted from Oct. 5-6.
The survey of 300 likely 6th Congressional District voters with a +/- 5.66% margin of error shows that district voters favor the generic Republican candidate by a margin of 43-39%. 

Politicker NJ

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Wisconsin: Walker Leads All 3 Dems in Race for Governor

The statewide poll found 44% of likely primary voters saying they favored [Scott] Walker vs. 43% for [Tom] Barrett, with 13% undecided, according to the poll. Walker is an announced Republican candidate for governor. Barrett, a Democrat, has not said whether he’s interested in running for governor.

In other hypothetical general election matchups, the poll found Walker with 48% to 40% over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton and Walker over U.S. Rep. Ron Kind, 49% to 39%.

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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Lazio Goes After Cuomo: Preview of Governor's Race?

Image via Wikipedia

With polling continuing to show low public support for New York Gov. David A. Paterson, 2010 political watchers are shifting their attention to his fellow Democrat, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

In another sign that Cuomo is the consensus front-runner for the governor's race, GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio went after the popular attorney general Monday, putting out a press release condemning Cuomo's decision not to continue an investigation into the hiring of state Sen. Pedro Espada Jr.'s son, Pedro G. Espada, for a job with the state Senate Democrats.

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Desperate Democrats Still Attacking Bush

Instead of offering new ideas, Creigh Deeds attacks Bush. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Is that all they have to use as ammunition? I guess so:

Convinced that Americans still hold Bush responsible for the nation's economic woes -- and will show more patience with Democratic policies if reminded of their dissatisfaction with the eight years of his presidency -- Democratic candidates have stepped up efforts to link GOP opponents to Bush, repeating a strategy that helped them take over Congress, the White House and a number of state offices in the past two election cycles.

In Virginia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds has pounced on statements by Republican Robert F. McDonnell indicating that Bush's tax cuts were good for the economy in the years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The Bush name has littered Deeds's statements in the past week.

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New Jersey: Christie Leads Corzine by 14

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I don't know if I should get too excited about this yet. Jon Corzine is a Goldman-Sachs guy, so even if the people don't want to reelect him, maybe they will be made to reelect him.

Chris Christie (R) 50%
Jon Corzine (D-inc) 36%

Source: The Hedgehog Report

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New Jersey: Christie Increases Lead to 15 pts

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Strategic Vision has released a poll of the political situation in New Jersey. The results are not good news for Governor Jon Corzine and Barack Obama:

If the election for Governor were being held today and the choices were Christopher Christie, the Republican, Jon Corzine, the Democrat, or Christopher Daggett, the Independent, for whom would you vote?

Christopher Christie 53%
Jon Corzine 38%
Christopher Daggett 5%
Undecided 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jon Corzine's overall job performance?
Approve 35%
Disapprove 55%
Undecided 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's overall job performance?
Approve 50%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy?
Approve 47%
Disapprove 45%
Undecided 8%

Do you think New Jersey is headed in the right direction or wrong direction?
Right 24%
Wrong 62%
Undecided 14%

Source: Strategic Vision

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New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte Resigns AG Position, May Run for Senate

New Hampshire [Republican] Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is resigning to explore a campaign for U.S. Senate.

Ayotte submitted her letter of resignation to Gov. John Lynch, effective Friday, July 17.

In a statement Tuesday, Ayotte says many people have urged her to run. She said she made her decision after discussing the matter with her husband, Joe.

Associated Press

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Only 27% Want Another 'Stimulus' Package

Do you favor or oppose another economic stimulus package?
Favor	27%
Oppose	60%
Not sure	13%

Rasmussen Reports