Final Electoral Vote Projection: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

Electoral College: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-poller as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This has been my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number.

Tomorrow, my final projection! Woohoo!

Here is the state of the Presidential Race

Today, Monday, November 3, 2008:

Image created with the Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:



Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Projection: McCain/Palin 278, Obama/Biden 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 27, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Rasmussen Electoral Vote Count Nearly Even

State By State Balance of Power
Safe GOP (62)	Likely GOP (121)	Leans GOP (64)	Toss Up (27)	Leans Dem (71)	Likely Dem (50)	Safe Dem (143)
AL (9)	AK (3)	FL (27)	CO (9)	IA (7)	CT (7)	CA (55)
ID (4)	AR (6)	MO (11)	NV (5)	MI (17)	DE (3)	DC (3)
KS (6)	AZ (10)	MT (3)	VA (13)	NH (4)	ME (4)	HI (4)
KY (8)	GA (15)	ND (3)		NM (5)	MN (10)	IL (21)
LA (9)	IN (11)	OH (20)		OR (7)	NJ (15)	MD (10)
OK (7)	MS (6)			PA (21)	WA (11)	MA (12)
TN (11)	NE (5)			WI (10)		NY (31)
UT (5)	NC (15)					RI (4)
WY (3)	SC (8)					VT (3)
	SD (3)
	TX (34)
	WV (5)
www.rasmussenreports.com

Fairer Election? California May End Winner-Take-All Electoral Plan

I looked at some websites talking about this and they were hysterical, calling it a Republican "power grab." However, the Democrats are trying to do the same thing in several Republican States, including Texas, Colorado, North Carolina and Florida. These websites don't mention that. So the GOP is basically defending itself by doing the same thing the Democrats want to do, but it's only bad when Republicans do it. Then it is a "scheme."