Final Electoral Vote Projection: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

Electoral College: McCain/Palin 304, Obama/Biden 234

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-poller as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This has been my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number.

Tomorrow, my final projection! Woohoo!

Here is the state of the Presidential Race

Today, Monday, November 3, 2008:

Image created with the Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This is my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote. (Checking to early voting regularly to see how it is going. Obviously I can not know Election Day early voting.)
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number I think.

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Sunday, November 2, 2008:

Electoral Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:



Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College Projection: McCain/Palin 278, Obama/Biden 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 27, 2008:

Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.

Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Thursday, October 23, 2008:

Recent McCain YouTube Ads Hurting Obama

Whoever is responsible for these ads is a genius. Ever since they started being released almost daily, McCain has tied or overtaken Obama. Of course, the convention will put some wind back in the Democrat's sails for awhile. So McCain needs to make a good pick for his Vice Presidential partner.

Early 2008 Senate Projection: Exactly the Same (51 Dems, 49 GOP)

Top 10 Democrat Strategies for 2008

Dems in White House in 2008? Not so Fast...

How 2008 Senate Race Looks so Far

Why Republicans Are so Darn Hopeful

No Outcry for Nader, Jeb Bush or Gore to Run in '08

Do you want Ralph Nader / Jeb Bush / Al Gore to enter the 2008 presidential race?

	Nader	Bush	Gore
Yes	14%	16%	26%
No	65%	74%	64%
Don’t know	29%	10%	10%

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Feb. 13 and Feb. 14, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Hillary Forced to Abandon 'Centrist' Ploy Earlier Than Expected

Hillary Trails Giuliani & McCain

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton

	Jan. 25	Dec. 19
Rudy Giuliani (R)	49%	47%
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	43%	43%

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

	Jan. 25	Dec. 19
John McCain (R)	45%	49%
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	44%	45%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted on Jan. 24 and Jan. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Giuliani 29, McCain 19, Gingrich 16, Romney 8

Republican Presidential Primary Contenders

	Jan. 25	Jan. 18	Jan. 11
Rudy Giuliani	29%	30%	28%
John McCain	19%	22%	20%
Newt Gingrich	16%	12%	14%
Mitt Romney	8%	10%	8%
Sam Brownback	3%	--	--
Mike Huckabee	1%	2%	--
Chuck Hagel	1%	1%	--

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 579 likely Republican voters, conducted from Jan. 22 to Jan. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

New Jersey: Giuliani Would Beat Them All

If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were (the Democrat) and (the Republican), for whom would you vote?

Rudy Giuliani (R) 48% - 41% Hillary Rodham Clinton (R)
John McCain (R) 43% - 44% Hillary Rodham Clinton (R)
Mitt Romney (R) 29% - 53% Hillary Rodham Clinton (R)
John McCain (R) 45% - 39% John Edwards (R)
John McCain (R) 42% - 39% Barack Obama (R)

Source: Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,310 registered Ohio voters, conducted from Jan. 16 to Jan. 22, 2006. Margin of error is 2.7 per cent.

Giuliani & McCain Both Beating Richardson

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Rudy Giuliani (R) 49% - 34% Bill Richardson (D)
John McCain (R) 43% - 39% Bill Richardson (D)

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted on Jan. 22 and Jan. 23, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

McCain 30, Giuliani 26, Gingrich 14, Romney 5

Now I’m going to read a list of candidates who might be running for the Republican Party presidential nomination in 2008. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, listen carefully to the names and then tell me which candidate you would be most likely to vote for.

John McCain	30%
Rudy Giuliani	26%
Newt Gingrich	14%
Mitt Romney	5%
Sam Brownback	3%
George Pataki	2%
Tom Tancredo	1%
Chuck Hagel	1%
Mike Huckabee	1%
Jim Gilmore	1%
Other	1%
Unsure	14%
Won’t vote	1%

Source: Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs / Time
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 441registered American voters who are Republicans or lean Republican, conducted on Jan. 22 and Jan. 23, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.