Monday, September 22, 2008
Electoral College Projection: McCain 336, Obama 202
If the election were held today...
Map created using Real Clear Politics electoral map generator.
By the way, I feel vindicated by this AP/Yahoo poll showing that Obama may under perform by up to 6% on election day. People have criticized me for taking this probability into account in my projections, but as it turns out I was actually being generous to Obama. I have used at most 5% and am now using 4% since I believe more of the public has gotten to know both candidates.
Map created using Real Clear Politics electoral map generator.
By the way, I feel vindicated by this AP/Yahoo poll showing that Obama may under perform by up to 6% on election day. People have criticized me for taking this probability into account in my projections, but as it turns out I was actually being generous to Obama. I have used at most 5% and am now using 4% since I believe more of the public has gotten to know both candidates.
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While race will play a role in the voting of some people I doubt that 6% of the people are going to change there vote in the voting booth because of Obama’s race. I am sure that if Obama were White he would have a lot bigger lead than he currently has especial with the unpopularity of the bush administration and the erratic campaign that McCain has run. However I think most of the effects of racism are already reflected in the current polling. It does not make sense that that many people would lie on the polls when there are legitimate excuses to not vote for Obama. It seems to me if you are one of those people who would never vote for a black person but don’t want to seem racist you could use another excuse. You could say he is too inexperienced? You claim he is too liberal or any other number of arguments that McCain has used against Obama. I just don’t think that that many people will vote for Obama in a poll then voting for McCain in the election unless they just want to screw with the poll. I would believe anyone who wants to screw with a poll would want to screw with a poll no matter who was in the race. I also think that the increased participation of African Americans and younger voter will have a positive effect on Obama’s election numbers. In the Primaries African Americans voted at a higher rate than they have in the past and there is no reason to believe it will not continue to increase in the General Election.
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