Royal/Hollande Scandal Just Another Day for Many French

Do you think the relationship between Ségolène Royal and François Hollande had a positive impact or a negative impact in the result of this year’s presidential election?

Positive impact	5%
Negative impact	35%
Had no impact	51%
Not sure	9%

Are you surprised by the recent announcement of the separation of Ségolène Royal and François Hollande?

Surprised	27%
Not surprised	62%
Not sure	11%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 927 French adults, conducted on Jun. 18, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Royal Loses Women's Vote

France: Sarkozy Next President

Royal Threatens France With Violence if She Loses

France: Sarkozy Ahead in 2 More Polls

a) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 30	Apr. 24	Apr. 22
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	53%	52%
Ségolène Royal	48%	47%	48%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 805 registered French voters, conducted on Apr. 30, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

b) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	May 1	Apr. 30	Apr. 27
Nicolas Sarkozy	53.5%	53%	53%
Ségolène Royal	46.5%	47%	47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 808 French adults, conducted on Apr. 30 and May 1, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads Royal in 3 Polls

a) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 27	Apr. 24	Apr. 19
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	51%	53%
Ségolène Royal	48%	49%	47%

Source: TNS-Sofres / Unilog
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,000 French adults, conducted on Apr. 26 and Apr. 27, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

b) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 30	Apr. 27	Apr. 24
Nicolas Sarkozy	53%	53%	53.5%
Ségolène Royal	47%	47%	46.5%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,362 French adults, conducted from Apr. 27 to Apr. 30, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

c) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 28	Apr. 25	Apr. 22
Nicolas Sarkozy	53%	53%	54%
Ségolène Royal	47%	47%	46%

Source: Ifop / Paris Match
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 956 French registered voters, conducted from Apr. 26 to Apr. 28, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Royal Now Pretends to be a Centrist

Uh, doesn't she belong to the SOCIALIST Party?

France: Sarkozy Favored in Run-Off

a) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 19	Apr. 16
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	51%	53%
Ségolène Royal	46%	49%	47%

Source: Ifop / Fiducial
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,010 French registered voters, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

b) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 20	Apr. 19
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	53.5%	53.5%
Ségolène Royal	46%	46.5%	46.5%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,598 French adults, conducted on the night of Apr. 19 and Apr. 20, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

c) Which candidate would you support in the second round of the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 15	Apr. 7
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	51%	52%
Ségolène Royal	46%	49%	48%

Source: LH2 / RMC
Methodology: Interviews with 1,537 French adults, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

d) Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 20	Apr. 19
Nicolas Sarkozy	53.5%	50%	50%
Ségolène Royal	46.5%	50%	50%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,005 French adults, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

e) Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 22	Apr. 17	Apr. 3
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	53%	54%
Ségolène Royal	48%	47%	46%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 825 registered French voters, conducted on the night of Apr. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads by 3; Bayrou Regains Strength

Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?

	Apr. 12	Apr. 11	Apr. 5
Nicolas Sarkozy	26%	27%	26%
Ségolène Royal	23%	25%	23.5%
François Bayrou	21%	19%	21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	15%	15%	16%
Olivier Besancenot	4%	3.5%	3.5%
Marie-George Buffet	2.5%	2%	2%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	2%	2%
Frédéric Nihous	2%	1.5%	1.5%
José Bové	1.5%	2%	1.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1%	1%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1.5%	1.5%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

	Apr. 12	Apr. 11	Apr. 5
Nicolas Sarkozy	51%	52%	52%
Ségolène Royal	49%	48%	48%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 918 French adults, conducted on Apr. 11 and Apr. 12, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads by 4.5

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 14	Apr. 13	Apr. 12
Nicolas Sarkozy	29.5%	29.5%	30%
Ségolène Royal	25%	24.5%	24%
François Bayrou	17.5%	17.5%	18.5%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13.5%	14%	13.5%
Olivier Besancenot	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%
Marie-George Buffet	3%	2.5%	2%
José Bové	2%	1.5%	1.5%
Frédéric Nihous	1.5%	2%	2%
Arlette Laguiller	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1.5%	1.5%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 14	Apr. 13	Apr. 12
Nicolas Sarkozy	53%	53.5%	54%
Ségolène Royal	47%	46.5%	46%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Apr. 14	Apr. 13	Apr. 12
François Bayrou	53.5%	53%	53%
Nicolas Sarkozy	46.5%	47%	47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,355 French adults, conducted from Apr. 12 to Apr. 14, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads by 5 pts.

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 13	Apr. 12	Apr. 10
Nicolas Sarkozy	29.5%	30%	30%
Ségolène Royal	24.5%	24%	23.5%
François Bayrou	17.5%	18.5%	19%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	14%	13.5%	13.5%
Olivier Besancenot	3.5%	3.5%	4%
Marie-George Buffet	2.5%	2%	1.5%
Frédéric Nihous	2%	2%	1.5%
José Bové	1.5%	1.5%	2.5%
Arlette Laguiller	1.5%	1.5%	2%
Dominique Voynet	1.5%	1.5%	1%
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1.5%	1%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 13	Apr. 12	Apr. 10
Nicolas Sarkozy	53.5%	54%	53.5%
Ségolène Royal	46.5%	46%	46.5%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Apr. 13	Apr. 12	Apr. 10
François Bayrou	53%	53%	53.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy	47%	47%	46.5%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,279 French adults, conducted from Apr. 11 to Apr. 13, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads by 6.5 pts.

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 10	Apr. 3	Mar. 31
Nicolas Sarkozy	30%	31.5%	31%
Ségolène Royal	23.5%	25%	24.5%
François Bayrou	19%	18.5%	19%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13.5%	13%	13%
Olivier Besancenot	4%	3.5%	4.5%
José Bové	2.5%	1%	1%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	1%	1.5%
Marie-George Buffet	1.5%	2.5%	2%
Frédéric Nihous	1.5%	1%	1%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1.5%	1%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1%	1%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 10	Apr. 3	Mar. 31
Nicolas Sarkozy	53.5%	54%	53.5%
Ségolène Royal	46.5%	46%	46.5%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Apr. 10	Apr. 3	Mar. 31
François Bayrou	53.5%	51%	52%
Nicolas Sarkozy	46.5%	49%	48%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,300 French adults, conducted from Apr. 7 to Apr. 10, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads by 4pts.

Which candidate would you support in the first round of the presidential election?

	Apr. 7	Mar. 31	Mar. 24
Nicolas Sarkozy	28%	29%	27%
Ségolène Royal	24%	26%	27%
François Bayrou	18%	18%	20%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	15%	13%	12%
Olivier Besancenot	4%	5%	3%
Marie-George Buffet	2.5%	3%	2%
José Bové	2%	2%	1.5%
Dominique Voynet	2%	1%	1%
Arlette Laguiller	1.5%	1%	2.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1%	1.5%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	1%	2%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	--	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

	Apr. 7	Mar. 31	Mar. 24
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	51%	51%
Ségolène Royal	48%	49%	49%

Source: Louis-Harris / RMC
Methodology: Interviews with 1,009 French adults, conducted on Apr. 6 and Apr. 7, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy 28, Royal 23.5

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 5	Mar. 29	Mar. 15
Nicolas Sarkozy	28%	30%	31%
Ségolène Royal	23.5%	27%	24%
François Bayrou	20%	18%	22%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13%	12%	12%
Olivier Besancenot	4%	3.5%	2%
José Bové	2%	2.5%	2%
Marie-George Buffet	3%	2.5%	2.5%
Arlette Laguiller	2.5%	1%	2%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1.5%	1%	--
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1%	0.5%
Gérard Schivardi	--	0.5%	--

Run-off scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 5	Mar. 29	Mar. 15
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	52%	54%
Ségolène Royal	46%	48%	46%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Apr. 5	Mar. 15
François Bayrou	52%	54%
Nicolas Sarkozy	48%	46%

Source: TNS-Sofres / Unilog
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on Apr. 4 and Apr. 5, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy 29.5, Royal 24

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 3	Mar. 27	Mar. 20
Nicolas Sarkozy	29.5%	28%	31%
Ségolène Royal	24%	27%	24%
François Bayrou	18%	20%	17%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	12%	12%	13%
Olivier Besancenot	4%	4.5%	4%
Arlette Laguiller	3%	3%	2%
Marie-George Buffet	2.5%	2%	4%
Philippe de Villiers	2.5%	1%	1%
José Bové	2%	1%	2%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	--	0.5%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 3	Mar. 27	Mar. 20
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	51%	54%
Ségolène Royal	46%	49%	46%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 955 registered French voters, conducted on Apr. 2 and Apr. 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy Leads Royal by 6.5 pts.

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Apr. 3	Mar. 31	Mar. 24
Nicolas Sarkozy	31.5%	31%	30%
Ségolène Royal	25%	24.5%	25.5%
François Bayrou	18.5%	19%	19%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13%	13%	13.5%
Olivier Besancenot	3.5%	4.5%	3%
Marie-George Buffet	2.5%	2%	2%
Dominique Voynet	1.5%	1%	1%
Arlette Laguiller	1%	1.5%	2%
José Bové	1%	1%	1.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	1%	1%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Apr. 3	Mar. 31	Mar. 24
Nicolas Sarkozy	54%	53.5%	53%
Ségolène Royal	46%	46.5%	47%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Apr. 3	Mar. 31	Mar. 24
François Bayrou	51%	52%	53%
Nicolas Sarkozy	49%	48%	47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,272 French adults, conducted from Mar. 31 to Apr. 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy by 3

Which candidate would you support in the first round of the presidential election?

	Mar. 31	Mar. 24	Mar. 17
Nicolas Sarkozy	29%	27%	29%
Ségolène Royal	26%	27%	26%
François Bayrou	18%	20%	22%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13%	12%	12.5%
Olivier Besancenot	5%	3%	2.5%
Marie-George Buffet	3%	2%	2%
José Bové	2%	1.5%	1.5%
Arlette Laguiller	1%	2.5%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	2%	1%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1.5%	1.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Gérard Schivardi	--	0.5%	--

Run-Off Scenario

	Mar. 31	Mar. 24	Mar. 17
Nicolas Sarkozy	51%	51%	52%
Ségolène Royal	49%	49%	48%

Source: Louis-Harris / RMC
Methodology: Interviews with 1,003 French adults, conducted on Mar. 30 and Mar. 31, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy 31, Royal 24.5, Bayrou 19, Le Pen 13

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Mar. 31	Mar. 24	Mar. 17
Nicolas Sarkozy	31%	30%	29.5%
Ségolène Royal	24.5%	25.5%	25%
François Bayrou	19%	19%	21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	13%	13.5%	12.5%
Olivier Besancenot	4.5%	3%	3.5%
Marie-George Buffet	2%	2%	2%
Arlette Laguiller	1.5%	2%	2%
José Bové	1%	1.5%	1.5%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1%	1.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	0.5%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	1%	0.5%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Mar. 31	Mar. 24	Mar. 17
Nicolas Sarkozy	53.5%	53%	52%
Ségolène Royal	46.5%	47%	48%

Sarkozy v. Bayrou

	Mar. 31	Mar. 24
François Bayrou	52%	53%
Nicolas Sarkozy	48%	47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,341 French adults, conducted from Mar. 29 to Mar. 31, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy 26, Royal 24.5, Bayrou 19.5, Le Pen 15

Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?

	Mar. 29	Mar. 22	Mar. 14
Nicolas Sarkozy	26%	26%	27%
Ségolène Royal	24.5%	26%	26%
François Bayrou	19.5%	21%	21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	15%	13%	14%
Marie-George Buffet	4%	3%	2%
Olivier Besancenot	3%	3.5%	2%
Arlette Laguiller	2%	2%	2%
José Bové	2%	2%	2%
Philippe de Villiers	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Frédéric Nihous	1%	0.5%	0.5%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

	Mar. 29	Mar. 22	Mar. 14
Nicolas Sarkozy	52%	50%	53%
Ségolène Royal	48%	50%	47%

Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 922 French adults, conducted on Mar. 28 and Mar. 29, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

France: Sarkozy 28, Royal 27

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Mar. 27	Mar. 20	Mar. 13
Nicolas Sarkozy	28%	31%	29%
Ségolène Royal	27%	24%	23%
François Bayrou	20%	17%	21%
Jean-Marie Le Pen	12%	13%	13%
Olivier Besancenot	4.5%	4%	3%
Arlette Laguiller	3%	2%	2%
Marie-George Buffet	2%	4%	3%
Philippe de Villiers	1%	1%	2%
José Bové	1%	2%	2%
Dominique Voynet	1%	1%	1%
Gérard Schivardi	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Frédéric Nihous	--	0.5%	0.5%

Run-Off Scenarios

Sarkozy v. Royal

	Mar. 27	Mar. 20	Mar. 13
Nicolas Sarkozy	51%	54%	51%
Ségolène Royal	49%	46%	49%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 958 registered French voters, conducted on Mar. 26 and Mar. 27, 2007. No margin of error was provided.