CNU Virginia Poll: Fishy Gender Issues

Looking at the internals of the CNU Virginia poll...hmmm...

Question 5 [Respondent Gender]

42.0 Male
58.0 Female

And guess what—they have Obama winning by 6 points. What a surprise!

If they had used a more accurate gender sampling, the race would be a dead heat.
Throw in the Bradley Factor and McCain is winning in Virginia.

The pollsters learned nothing from 2004.
Or maybe they learned that you can use your pollster status as a way to break the ice when meeting chicks.

Even Obama-Friendly Gallup Poll is Tightening

Gallup has been one of the polling outfits most strident in oversampling Democrats, therefore ensuring a positive outcome for Obama even before the polling has started. So for McCain to be down by only 7 is promising.

These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
Gallup

ABC & Washington Post Release VERY Slanted Poll

They decided to help their boy Obama out by giving him a 16 pt. lead to start with...

Sample:
54 Democrat
38 Republican
7 Independent
2 Other

And guess what? The poll shows Obama leading by 9 pts!
What a surprise.

They oversample Democrats by 16 pts, and Obama only leads by 9.
So this is actually bad news for Obama because he can not hold onto people who lean toward the Democrats.
But... you will only hear about the 9 pt lead in the news.

You are unlikely to hear about how far out of the way ABC News and the Washington post went to ensure a larger Obama lead. Also, with such a bias in the poll, shouldn't Obama be winning by close to 16 pts? They gave him such a huge unfair advantage and Obama can only come up with a 9 pt lead?

Lets see if in the next ABC News/Washington Post poll they make up for this by giving McCain a 16 pt advantage.
I doubt it.

Alaska: Fishy Poll Paid for by Union Shows Obama With Small Lead

This poll was paid for by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1547.

It's a good idea to watch out for polls like these which are obviously biased. Alaska does seem to be closer this time around than it usually is, but how can Obama have suddenly gained in the polls when in almost every other state, McCain has been the one has gained in the polls?

Why Some Polls Are So Off the Mark

Bad Sampling:

There are currently polls showing results ranging from Obama by double digits (Newsweek and the L.A. Times) to a tie (Gallup). Most polls, including Rasmussen Reports, show something in the middle and that’s probably the best estimate of where the race stands today… and where it has been for the past few weeks.

In the case of the recent L.A. Times poll, this [poll sample] mix was 39% Democrats and 22% Republicans.
—Rasmussen Reports

Laughably Fouled-Up Polls Released

It would appear that this set of polls has a margin of error of about 25 pts! I should start my own polling company—I couldn't be any more off than these guys.

Now I’m going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in the 2008 election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election for president were being held today. (Leaners included)

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	51%	49%	46%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	44%	46%	47%

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	50%	50%	47%
John McCain (R)	45%	44%	46%

Romney v. Rodham Clinton

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	55%	57%	53%
Mitt Romney (R)	40%	35%	38%

F. Thompson v. Rodham Clinton

	Jun. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	53%
Fred Thompson (R)	42%

Giuliani v. Obama

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	49%	50%	43%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	44%	43%	48%

McCain v. Obama

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	51%	52%	45%
John McCain (R)	41%	39%	43%

Romney v. Obama

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	53%	58%	54%
Mitt Romney (R)	37%	29%	34%

F. Thompson v. Obama

	Jun. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	53%
Fred Thompson (R)	39%

Giuliani v. Edwards

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
John Edwards (D)	48%	50%	45%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	46%	44%	47%

McCain v. Edwards

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
John Edwards (D)	50%	52%	48%
John McCain (R)	44%	42%	43%

Romney v. Edwards

	Jun. 2007	May 2007	Feb. 2007
John Edwards (D)	57%	64%	58%
Mitt Romney (R)	36%	27%	30%

F. Thompson v. Edwards

	Jun. 2007
John Edwards (D)	54%
Fred Thompson (R)	38%

Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates / Newsweek
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 831 registered American voters, conducted on Jun. 20 and Jun. 21, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.