October 28: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Illinois

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +1)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Mike Michaud defeats Jason Levesque by 14 pts (HOLD)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7) [GOP weakness at top 3 positions on ticket make things hard for those lower on the ticket]

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio 


Oklahoma


Oregon

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Fighting Jackie Walorski and His Own D Party (politicsdaily.com)
• Indiana Races Bellwethers for House (online.wsj.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary (politico.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Midterm Blowout: 50+ Dem House Seats Set to Flip to GOP (biggovernment.com)
• Election 2010: Where Things Stand (cbsnews.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Redistricting 2010: GOP Poised To Win Congress Redistricting Edge, Too (huffingtonpost.com)
• Republicans could control redistricting too (capitolhillblue.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)
• GOP poised to win Congress redistricting edge, too (sfgate.com)
• GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

Indiana: Walorski Cuts Donnelly Lead to 5

Image via WikipediaWith Dan Coats' coat-tails and Donnelly under 50 percent, Jackie Walorski may just pull this off.

Three Indiana Congressional Districts, all held by Democrats, were targeted by the Republicans this year. They are the 2nd, the 8th, and the 9th Districts. The 2nd is considered a bellwether. That means as it goes, so goes Congress and the race there is getting tighter.
The WISH-TV Indiana 2010 Election poll shows Democrat Joe Donnelly in the lead with a 5 point margin at 48 percent. Republican Jackie Walorski is at 43 percent with the libertarian at just 2 percent.

OnPolitix

Related articles

• Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Fighting Jackie Walorski and His Own D Party (politicsdaily.com)
• Stark choice, hot race in Indiana (msnbc.msn.com)
• Ellie Hall: Donnelly Ahead In Competitive IN-2 Race (huffingtonpost.com)
• Indiana Races Bellwethers for House (online.wsj.com)
• Indiana's Joe Donnelly and "The Washington Crowd" (mydd.com)
• Pence may leave GOP leadership (politico.com)
• Democrats who took over House now under GOP duress (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• 2010 Elections Poll Roundup: Good News for GOP in Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania (politics.usnews.com)