October 30: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD) 
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski defeats Eric Wargotz by 18 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: Rob Portman defeats Lee Fisher by 22 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeatS Len Britton by 24 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut (Republicans + 2)
Connecticut 4th: Dan Debicella defeats Jim Himes by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut 5th: Sam Caligiuri defeats Chris Murphy by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia (Republicans +2)
Georgia 2nd: Mike Keown defeats Sanford Bishop by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Georgia 8th: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall by 21 pts (PICKUP)
Georgia 12th: John Barrow defeats Raymond McKinney by 7 pts (HOLD)


Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

Illinois 

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas 
Kansas 4th: 

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +2)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Jason Levesque defeats Mike Michaud by 2 pts (PICKUP)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota (Republicans +1)

Minnesota 1st: Tim Walz defeats Randy Demmer by 2 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 6th: Michele Bachmann defeats Tarryl Clark by 18 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 7th: Collin Peterson defeats Lee Byberg by 9 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota 8th: Chip Cravaack defeats Jim Oberstar by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7)

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina (Republicans + 5)
North Carolina 2nd: Renee Elmers defeats Bob Etheridge by 10 pts (PICKUP) 
North Carolina 4th: William Lawson defeats David Price by 2 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 7th: Ilario Pantano defeats Mike McIntyre by 12 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 8th: Harold Johnson defeats Larry Kissell by 15 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 11th: Jeff Miller Defeats Heath Shuler by 8 pts (PICKUP)


North Dakota 

Ohio 


Oklahoma (No Change)


Oregon (Republicans +1)
Oregon 5th: Scott Bruun defeats Kurt Schrader by 4 pts (PICKUP)

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island (Republicans +1)
Rhode Island 1st: John Loughlin defeats David Cicilline by 4 pts (PICKUP)

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah 

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia (Republicans +1)
West Virginia 1st: David McKinley defeats Mike Oliverio by 7 pts (PICKUP)
West Virginia 3rd: Nick Rahall defeats Spike Maynard by 8 pts (HOLD)


Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (sfgate.com)
• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• RJ's 2010 Senate Race Predictions (blogcritics.org)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Democrats at 53 in the Senate, Republicans +53 in the House (Some Bold and Not-so-Bold Election 2010 Projections) (britannica.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Three seats I'll stop wondering about (redstate.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Resurgent GOP closes in on House win, eyes Senate (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Chris Weigant: Senate Midterm Election Overview (huffingtonpost.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Niall O'Dowd: Harry Reid Defeat No Bad Thing for Democrats With Chuck Schumer in the Wings (huffingtonpost.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)

October 28: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Illinois

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +1)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Mike Michaud defeats Jason Levesque by 14 pts (HOLD)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7) [GOP weakness at top 3 positions on ticket make things hard for those lower on the ticket]

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio 


Oklahoma


Oregon

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Fighting Jackie Walorski and His Own D Party (politicsdaily.com)
• Indiana Races Bellwethers for House (online.wsj.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary (politico.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Midterm Blowout: 50+ Dem House Seats Set to Flip to GOP (biggovernment.com)
• Election 2010: Where Things Stand (cbsnews.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Redistricting 2010: GOP Poised To Win Congress Redistricting Edge, Too (huffingtonpost.com)
• Republicans could control redistricting too (capitolhillblue.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)
• GOP poised to win Congress redistricting edge, too (sfgate.com)
• GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

October 21: Election Prediction Fun

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 



Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (3 Weak GOP Candidates on Top of Ticket Muddies the Waters!)

New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Governor (To come)

Related articles

• Sestak, Toomey set for debate amid flurry of polls that show Sestak surge has closed gap (pennlive.com)
• Republican Senate Hopefuls Top Democrats in Money Race (businessweek.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Poll: Murkowski Stays Close With Miller -- But Write-In Confusion Could Hurt Chances (time.com)
• Republican Senate Hopefuls Top Democrats in Cash Race (businessweek.com)
• Senate Takeover Less Likely After Tea Party Wins (cbsnews.com)
• Blanche Lincoln: Trying to Get Her Groove Back at the Arkansas State Fair (politicsdaily.com)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/13/10 (dailykos.com)

OCTOBER 7: 2010 Election Prediction Fun

Time for some 2010 predictions. Starting with a few Senate and then I will add more in the coming days.
Senate

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek (HOLD)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)

Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 20 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)


West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

House (To come)
Governor (To come)

West Virginia Senate: Raese Increases Lead to 6 pts

Image via Wikipedia WV Survey of 500 Likely Voters
October 5, 2010

Election 2010: West Virginia Senate Special Election
John Raese (R)	50%
Joe Manchin (D)	44%
Some other candidate	2%
Not sure Rasmussen Reports	5%

Related articles

• Raese now leads Manchin by 6 in Rasmussen poll (hotair.com)
• Raese Leads Manchin in West Virginia (politicalwire.com)
• New Senate Poll Pushes West Virginia To Lean Republican (huffingtonpost.com)
• Raese Pulling Ahead in West Virginia (powerlineblog.com)
• A Referendum on Obama? Dems in Danger of Losing W. Va. Senate Seat (abcnews.go.com)
• Race is tight for Byrd's Senate seat in West Virginia (cnn.com)
• Raese now leads both West Virginia Polls (redstate.com)

West Virginia Senate: Now Even Rasmussen Has Raese Leading Manchin

WV Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 27, 2010

Election 2010: West Virginia Senate Special Election
John Raese (R)	48%
Joe Manchin (D)	46%
Some other candidate	2%
Not sure	4%

Related articles

• Raese Pulling Ahead in West Virginia (powerlineblog.com)
• Republicans Close The Gap In West Virginia, Connecticut (outsidethebeltway.com)
• The plot thickens in West Virginia (powerlineblog.com)
• PPP Poll: Republican Raese Leads Manchin by 3 in W.V. Senate Race (weeklystandard.com)
• Raese takes a lead in West Virginia (redstate.com)
• Raese Leads in West Virginia (politicalwire.com)
• Raese within five points in WV Senate race (hotair.com)
• WV Sen: NRSC Brings the Heat with $1 Million Ad Buy Against Manchin (elections.firedoglake.com)
• WOW: Rasmussen: West Virginia Senate: Raese (R) Eases Ahead of Manchin (D). "Manchin, despite his... (pajamasmedia.com)
• Bombshell: PPP puts Raese ahead of Manchin (hotair.com)
• Senate Power Could Shift This Year (foxnews.com)

West Virginia Senate: Republican Takes Lead in Race for 'Byrd's Seat'

John Raese        46
Joe Manchin     43
Public Policy Polling

Related article

• Raese Leads in West Virginia (politicalwire.com)

Even in the polls where the Republican is losing, there is good news. Take this one from West Virginia for example.

WV Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 8, 2010

Election 2010: West Virginia Senate Special Election
John Raese (R)	45%
Joe Manchin (D)	50%
Some other candidate	2%
Not sure	3%

Rasmussen Reports

Related articles

• Raese within five points in WV Senate race (hotair.com)
• Senate race in W.Va. unexpectedly in play (washingtontimes.com)
• WV Senate race shows GOP within 6 (hotair.com)
• "Joe Manchin, John Raese win West Virginia senate primaries" and related posts (latimesblogs.latimes.com)