October 21: Election Prediction Fun

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 



Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (3 Weak GOP Candidates on Top of Ticket Muddies the Waters!)

New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Governor (To come)

Related articles

• Sestak, Toomey set for debate amid flurry of polls that show Sestak surge has closed gap (pennlive.com)
• Republican Senate Hopefuls Top Democrats in Money Race (businessweek.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Poll: Murkowski Stays Close With Miller -- But Write-In Confusion Could Hurt Chances (time.com)
• Republican Senate Hopefuls Top Democrats in Cash Race (businessweek.com)
• Senate Takeover Less Likely After Tea Party Wins (cbsnews.com)
• Blanche Lincoln: Trying to Get Her Groove Back at the Arkansas State Fair (politicsdaily.com)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/13/10 (dailykos.com)

OCTOBER 7: 2010 Election Prediction Fun

Time for some 2010 predictions. Starting with a few Senate and then I will add more in the coming days.
Senate

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek (HOLD)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)

Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 20 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)


West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

House (To come)
Governor (To come)

Democrats: Sabotaging Defense Bill to Make Liberal Base Happy?

Whispers around Capitol Hill are the Defense Authorization bill was never meant to pass. Tuesday’s cloture vote in the Senate on the annual Pentagon budget went down in a 56 - 43 vote. The two Arkansas Democrats Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor both crossed party lines and voted with Republicans. Senate majority leader Harry Reid, Nevada Democrat voted no, so the vote could be brought up again at a later time.

Fox Nation

Related articles 

• Dems Fail to Get Enough Votes to Proceed on DADT/Defense Bill (spectator.org)
• Crash and burn: Senate filibusters Reid's DADT/DREAM Act defense package, 56/43 (hotair.com)
• Don't Ask, Don't Vote (redstate.com)
• Senate Fails To Invoke Cloture On Defense Bill, DADT Repeal (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Procedural Vote Stalls Defense Bill, Repeal of 'Don't Ask Don't Tell' (foxnews.com)
• Morning Briefing for September 22, 2010 (redstate.com)

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln Hides from Voters, Frolics in Boston with Biden

"This is clearly payback for Senator Lincoln's unwavering support for President Obama's big-spending, job-killing agenda. Boomerang Blanche delivered the crucial 60th vote on Obamacare and now they are delivering crucial funding for her campaign.  The question Arkansas voters are wondering: Why are you afraid to have the president and vice president come to Arkansas?  Blanche Lincoln must know the Obama-Biden team is just as unpopular and out-of-touch with Arkansans as she is."

Republican Party of Arkansas

 

Related articles

• The Day after Blanche Filibusters Defense Bill, Biden Rewards Her ... (emptywheel.firedoglake.com)
• Pryor, Lincoln Buck Fellow Dems on Defense Vote (blogs.wsj.com)
• Don't Ask, Don't Tell Repeal Fails (pinkbananaworld.com)

Arkansas: Boozman Leads Lincoln by 17 pts

Image via Wikipedia

Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Boozman continues to hold a 17-point lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln, a new poll shows.
In the poll, commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media and conducted Sunday through Tuesday, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Boozman if the election were held today, while 34 percent said they would vote for Lincoln.

ArkansasNews.com

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• ...and Redder...: (brothersjuddblog.com)
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Arkansas: Boozman Almost Doubles Lincoln Vote

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
June 15, 2010  

Election 2010: Arkansas Senate
John Boozman (R)	61%
Blanche Lincoln (D)	32%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	3%

Rasmussen Reports

Related article

• Blanche Lincoln survives Arkansas challenge (theglobeandmail.com)
• Writing Off Lincoln (politicalwire.com)
• Incumbent Lincoln wins runoff over Halter (msnbc.msn.com)
• Lincoln wins chance to fight for Senate seat (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Ark. GOP Senate pick: Dem. Lincoln is out of touch (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Blanche Lincoln WINS Arkansas Senate Runoff, Defeats Bill Halter (huffingtonpost.com)

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln Faces Challenges from Democrats & GOP

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Maybe he will, maybe he won't (run, that is) -- but Arkansas state Sen. Bob Johnson's announcement that he is mulling a Democratic primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln is an indication that even members of Lincoln's own party view her as a potential target in 2010.

Congressional Quarterly

Related articles

• OOPS: Blanche Lincoln to health-care protesters: Hey, sorry for calling you "un-American". I ... (pajamasmedia.com)
• Every Democratic Senator who votes against a healthcare plan that has a Public Option better be ready to relinquish their political careers (iflizwerequeen.com)
• Blue America Launches New TV Initiative in Arkansas - And We Need You (firedoglake.com)