FINAL ELECTION PREDICTION: GOP Gains 9 in Senate; 88 in House; 7 Governors

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE (Republicans +9. 50-50 split, Democrats retain control)

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD) 
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski defeats Eric Wargotz by 18 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: Rob Portman defeats Lee Fisher by 22 pts (HOLD)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeatS Len Britton by 24 pts (HOLD)
Washington: Dino Rossi defeats Patty Murray by 3 pts (PICKUP)
West Virginia: Joe Manchin defeats John Raese by 2 pts (HOLD)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 9 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama (Republicans +1)

Alabama 2nd: Martha Roby defeats Bobby Bright by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California (Republicans +5)
California 3rd: Dan Lundgren defeats Ami Bera by 24 pts (HOLD)

California 11th: David Harmer defeats Jerry McNerney by 12 pts (PICKUP)

California 18th: Mike Berryhill defeats Dennis Cardoza by 3 pts (PICKUP)

California 20th: Andy Vidak defeats Jim Costa by 11 pts (PICKUP)

California 47th: Van Tran defeats Loretta Sanchez by 4 pts (PICKUP)

California 51st: Nick Popaditch defeats Bob Filner by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado (Republicans +3)

Colorado 3rd: Scott Tipton defeats John Salazar by 14 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado 4th: Cory Gardner defeats Betsy Markey by 11 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado 7th: Ryan Frazier defeats Ed Perlmutter by 2 pts (PICKUP)



Connecticut (Republicans + 2)
Connecticut 4th: Dan Debicella defeats Jim Himes by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut 5th: Sam Caligiuri defeats Chris Murphy by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida (Republicans +4)

Florida 2nd: Steve Southerland defeats Allen Boyd by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Florida 8th: Daniel Webster defeats Alan Grayson by 18 pts (PICKUP)

Florida 22nd: Allen West defeats Ron Klein by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Florida 24th: Sandy Adams defeats Suzanne Kosmas by 11 pts (PICKUP)

Florida 25th: David Rivera defeats Joe Garcia by 6 pts (HOLD)


Georgia (Republicans +2)
Georgia 2nd: Mike Keown defeats Sanford Bishop by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Georgia 8th: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall by 21 pts (PICKUP)
Georgia 12th: John Barrow defeats Raymond McKinney by 7 pts (HOLD)


Hawaii (Democrats +1)
Hawaii 1st: Colleen Hanabusa defeats Charles Djou by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

Illinois (Republicans +4)

Illinois 8th: Joe Walsh defeats Melissa Bean by 7 pts (PICKUP) 

Illinois 10th: Bob Dold defeats Dan Seals by 9 pts (HOLD)

Illinois 11th: Adam Kinzinger defeats Debbie Halvorson by 23 pts (PICKUP) 
Illinois 14th: Randy Hultgren defeats Bill Foster by 11 pts (PICKUP) 
Illinois 17th: Bobby Schilling defeats Phil Hare by 15 pts (PICKUP) 

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 3 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa (No Change)

Iowa 1st: Bruce Braley defeats Ben Lange by 7 pts (HOLD)

Iowa 2nd: Dave Loebsack defeats Marianette Miller-Meeks by 2 pts (HOLD) 

Iowa 3rd: Leonard Boswell defeats Brad Zaun by 8 pts (HOLD)


Kansas  (Republicans +1)

Kansas 1st: Kevin Yoder defeats Stephene Moore by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

Kentucky (Republicans +2)

Kentucky 3rd: Todd Lally defeats John Yarmuth by 4 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 7 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana (No Change)
Louisiana 2nd: Cedric Richmond defeats Joseph Cao by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Louisiana 3rd: Jeff Landry defeats Ravi Sangisetty by 28 pts (PICKUP) 

Massachusetts (No Change)

Massachusetts 4th: Barney Frank defeats Sean Bielat by 15 pts (HOLD)

Massachusetts 10th: Bill Keating defeats Jeff Perry by 6 pts (HOLD)


Maine (Republicans +2)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Jason Levesque defeats Mike Michaud by 2 pts (PICKUP)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP) 

Michigan  (Republicans +3)
Michigan 1st: Dan Benishek defeats Gary McDowell by 9 pts (PICKUP) 
Michigan 7th: Tim Walberg defeats Mark Schauer by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Michigan 9th: Rocky Raczkowski defeats Gary Peters by 2 pts (PICKUP)


Minnesota (Republicans +1)

Minnesota 1st: Tim Walz defeats Randy Demmer by 2 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 6th: Michele Bachmann defeats Tarryl Clark by 18 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 7th: Collin Peterson defeats Lee Byberg by 9 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota 8th: Chip Cravaack defeats Jim Oberstar by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

Mississippi (Republicans +2)
Mississippi 1st: Alan Nunnelee defeats Travis Childers by 17 pts (PICKUP) 
Mississippi 4th: Steve Palazzo defeats Gene Taylor by 9 pts (PICKUP)


Missouri (Republicans +1)
Missouri 4th: Vicky Hartzler defeats Ike Skelton by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change) 

Nevada (Republicans +1)
Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 13 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire (Republicans +2)

New Hampshire 1st: Frank Guinta defeats Carol Shea-Porter by 9 pts (PICKUP)

New Hampshire 2nd: Charlie Bass defeats Ann Kuster by 3pts (PICKUP)

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico (Republicans +2)

New Mexico 1st: Jon Barela defeats Martin Heinrich by 4 pts (PICKUP)

New Mexico 2nd: Steve Pearce defeats Harry Teague by 9 pts (PICKUP)

New York (Republicans +6)

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)

New York 22nd: Maurice Hinchey defeats George Phillips by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina (Republicans + 5)
North Carolina 2nd: Renee Elmers defeats Bob Etheridge by 10 pts (PICKUP) 
North Carolina 4th: William Lawson defeats David Price by 2 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 7th: Ilario Pantano defeats Mike McIntyre by 12 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 8th: Harold Johnson defeats Larry Kissell by 15 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 11th: Jeff Miller defeats Heath Shuler by 8 pts (PICKUP)


North Dakota (Republicans +1)

North Dakota At Large: Rick Berg defeats Earl Pomeroy by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Ohio (Republicans +5)

Ohio 1st: Steve Chabot defeats Steve Driehaus by 11 pts (PICKUP)

Ohio 6th: Bill Johnson defeats Charlie Wilson by 9 pts (PICKUP)

Ohio 13th: Tom Ganley defeats Betty Sutton by 4 pts (PICKUP)

Ohio 15th: Steve Stivers defeats Mary Jo Kilroy by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Ohio 16th: Jim Renacci defeats John Boccieri by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Ohio 18th: Bob Gibbs defeat Zack Space by 3 pts (PICKUP)


Oklahoma (No Change)


Oregon (Republicans +1)
Oregon 5th: Scott Bruun defeats Kurt Schrader by 4 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island (Republicans +1)
Rhode Island 1st: John Loughlin defeats David Cicilline by 4 pts (PICKUP) 

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota (Republicans +1)
South Dakota At Large: Kristi Noem defeats Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas (Republicans +2)

Texas 17th: Bill Flores Defeats Chet Edwards by 16 pts (PICKUP) 

Texas 23rd: Francisco Canseco defeats Ciro Rodriguez by 11 pts (PICKUP)


Utah (No Change)

Utah 2nd: Jim Matheson defeats Morgan Philpot by 3 pts (HOLD)

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington (Republicans +2)

Washington 3rd: Jaime Herrera defeats Denny Heck by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Washington 9th: Dick Muri defeats Adam Smith by 1 pt (PICKUP)

West Virginia (Republicans +1)
West Virginia 1st: David McKinley defeats Mike Oliverio by 7 pts (PICKUP)

West Virginia 3rd: Nick Rahall defeats Spike Maynard by 8 pts (HOLD)

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNORS (Republicans +7)

Alaska: Sean Parnell defeats Ethan Berkowitz by 21 pts (HOLD)

Arizona: Jan Brewer defeats Terry Goddard by 16 pts (HOLD)

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP) 
Iowa: Terry Branstad defeats Chet Culver by 17 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Maine: Paul LePage defeats Libby Mitchell by 18 pts (PICKUP)
Massachusetts: Charles Baker defeats Deval Patrick by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Michigan: Vic Snyder defeats Virg Bernero by 22 pts (PICKUP)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP) 
Oregon: Chris Dudley defeats John Kitzhaber by 2 pts (PICKUP) 
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee defeats Frank Caprio by 9 pts (Counting as PICKUP for Democrats)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Nikki Haley defeats Vincent Sheheen by 14 pts (HOLD)

Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)
Vermont: Peter Shumlin defeats Brian Dubie by 5 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker defeats Tom Barrett by 11 pts (PICKUP)

Related articles

• Bellwethers 2010: An hour-by-hour guide (dailykos.com)
• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (sfgate.com)
• Club for Growth IE now targeting Dem Jerry McNerney, trolling for donations (sfgate.com)
• Back from the dead, GOP hopes for a big election night (capitolhillblue.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• You: FiveThirtyEight: The Ultimate District-by-District Election Guide (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
• FiveThirtyEight: The Ultimate District-by-District Election Guide (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
• Voters likely to hand GOP big governorship wins (sfgate.com)
• Voters likely to hand GOP big governorship wins (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Prize competition: Here are my 20 US mid-term election predictions. What are yours? (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)

October 30: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD) 
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski defeats Eric Wargotz by 18 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: Rob Portman defeats Lee Fisher by 22 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeatS Len Britton by 24 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut (Republicans + 2)
Connecticut 4th: Dan Debicella defeats Jim Himes by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut 5th: Sam Caligiuri defeats Chris Murphy by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia (Republicans +2)
Georgia 2nd: Mike Keown defeats Sanford Bishop by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Georgia 8th: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall by 21 pts (PICKUP)
Georgia 12th: John Barrow defeats Raymond McKinney by 7 pts (HOLD)


Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

Illinois 

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas 
Kansas 4th: 

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +2)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Jason Levesque defeats Mike Michaud by 2 pts (PICKUP)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota (Republicans +1)

Minnesota 1st: Tim Walz defeats Randy Demmer by 2 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 6th: Michele Bachmann defeats Tarryl Clark by 18 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 7th: Collin Peterson defeats Lee Byberg by 9 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota 8th: Chip Cravaack defeats Jim Oberstar by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7)

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina (Republicans + 5)
North Carolina 2nd: Renee Elmers defeats Bob Etheridge by 10 pts (PICKUP) 
North Carolina 4th: William Lawson defeats David Price by 2 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 7th: Ilario Pantano defeats Mike McIntyre by 12 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 8th: Harold Johnson defeats Larry Kissell by 15 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 11th: Jeff Miller Defeats Heath Shuler by 8 pts (PICKUP)


North Dakota 

Ohio 


Oklahoma (No Change)


Oregon (Republicans +1)
Oregon 5th: Scott Bruun defeats Kurt Schrader by 4 pts (PICKUP)

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island (Republicans +1)
Rhode Island 1st: John Loughlin defeats David Cicilline by 4 pts (PICKUP)

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah 

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia (Republicans +1)
West Virginia 1st: David McKinley defeats Mike Oliverio by 7 pts (PICKUP)
West Virginia 3rd: Nick Rahall defeats Spike Maynard by 8 pts (HOLD)


Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (sfgate.com)
• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• RJ's 2010 Senate Race Predictions (blogcritics.org)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Democrats at 53 in the Senate, Republicans +53 in the House (Some Bold and Not-so-Bold Election 2010 Projections) (britannica.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Three seats I'll stop wondering about (redstate.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Resurgent GOP closes in on House win, eyes Senate (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Chris Weigant: Senate Midterm Election Overview (huffingtonpost.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Niall O'Dowd: Harry Reid Defeat No Bad Thing for Democrats With Chuck Schumer in the Wings (huffingtonpost.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)

October 28: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Illinois

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +1)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Mike Michaud defeats Jason Levesque by 14 pts (HOLD)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7) [GOP weakness at top 3 positions on ticket make things hard for those lower on the ticket]

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio 


Oklahoma


Oregon

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Fighting Jackie Walorski and His Own D Party (politicsdaily.com)
• Indiana Races Bellwethers for House (online.wsj.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary (politico.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Midterm Blowout: 50+ Dem House Seats Set to Flip to GOP (biggovernment.com)
• Election 2010: Where Things Stand (cbsnews.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Redistricting 2010: GOP Poised To Win Congress Redistricting Edge, Too (huffingtonpost.com)
• Republicans could control redistricting too (capitolhillblue.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)
• GOP poised to win Congress redistricting edge, too (sfgate.com)
• GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

October 26: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +1)

New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Election 2010: Where Things Stand (cbsnews.com)
• How Republicans will win the Senate (thehill.com)
• Why New Jersey Is Still No. 1 for Property Taxes (dailyfinance.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• The Battle for America 2010: What are GOP Prospects for a Senate Takeover One Week Out? (pajamasmedia.com)
• A sense of the Senate (powerlineblog.com)
• Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary (politico.com)
• A report from the field on the race between Sean Duffy and Julie Lassa. (slate.com)

Georgia: Republicans 'Poised to Make Historic Gains'

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The poll conducted for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership shows the Republican candidate holding a slight edge in the race for governor but huge leads in the races for U.S. Senate and lieutenant governor. The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., has Republican gubernatorial nominee Nathan Deal leading Democrat Roy Barnes, 45 to 41 percent.
While Deal’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, Republicans U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle held bigger leads. Isakson leads Democrat Mike Thurmond, the labor commissioner, 52 to 33 percent, and Cagle leads Democrat Carol Porter, 47 to 28 percent. 

Atlanta Journal-Constitution