Do you approve or disapprove of Scotland becoming an independent country?
Approve | 41% |
Disapprove | 43% |
Undecided | 17% |
Source: Progressive Scottish Opinion
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,112 Scottish adults, conducted from Apr. 2 to Apr. 8, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
The problem with this post is that it cites only one opinion poll. It is a well known fact, especially in politics, that one opinion poll should never be read in isolation from others. There is an interesting article in 'The Herald' newspaper (here in Scotland) on April 15, 2008 with the heading Salmond 'starting to win the argument for Scots independence' (http://www.theherald.co.uk/misc/print.php?artid=2193582). Here are some pertinent extracts from that article -
ReplyDelete'...The latest tracker poll by TNS System Three suggests a narrow majority in favour of independence by 41% to 40% over those who would prefer to remain in the UK, but, as in the case of another poll last week, it is the trend that tells the real story...The point about the TNS polls is that they now show a trend.
They have asked the question a Salmond government would wish to put to a referendum in 2010, a straight yes or no to the proposition: "The Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the UK so that Scotland becomes an independent state."
Commissioned by the Sunday Herald, the first poll last August showed 50:35 support for the Union over independence. By November that had narrowed from 15 points to just 4, 44:40. Now the latest poll, conducted in the last days of March and the beginning April, puts independence support ahead.
Last week there was a similar trend in a second snapshot by Scottish Opinion. Last August, support for the Union led by 18 points, a 49:31 lead, but by this month that had narrowed to just two points, 43:41...'
The following figures are from an article in 'The Herald' newspaper (in Scotland) on May 3, 2008 'Highest ratings for SNP after year in power' (http://www.theherald.co.uk/misc/print.php?artid=2245273)
ReplyDeleteVoting Intentions
Constituency Vote Scotland% [UK%]
SNP 45(36) [31(30)]
Labour 31(31) [39(34)]
Conservative 12(13) [17(17)]
Lib. Dems. 11(15) [10(14)]
List Vote
SNP 41(37)
Labour 29(28)
Conservative 12(13)
Lib. Dems. 12(13)
Green 4
Others 1
The unbracketed figures are from the latest TNS System Three opinion poll and those in curved brackets are from a recent YouGov opinion poll.