Monday, October 6, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 284, Obama 254
Averaging out the state by state polls, correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats, including an increased Black turnout, voter fraud and throwing in a modest Bradley Effect... here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 6, 2008:
Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral map calculator.
Click on map to enlarge.
Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral map calculator.
Click on map to enlarge.
Labels:
Barack Hussein Obama
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Electoral College
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Electoral College Map
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Joe Biden
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John McCain
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Sarah Palin
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You do realize Real Clear Politics - on the day you posted this graph - has Obama at 364 Votes with McCain at 174. While I certainly don't think it will be near that, you have to concede that Obama has at least 300 votes in current polling.
ReplyDeleteYou cannot alter the polls the way you did because it makes you feel good.
If you're going to play that game, you have to add in new Democratic registered voters, as well as the overlooked "Cell Phone" effect where cell-phone only users are younger and favor Obama more - they're not being picked up by traditional polls.
If you plan on challenging the assumptions of the polls, you must be fair. Otherwise there's no point with all due respect.
It's a special brand of Bush, Cheney, Palin, McCain, and Rove politics- just keep saying something over and over and it will come true- or maybe no one will question it when you stuff the ballot box.
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect to Corey, and none to Miranda Wilde, you can not expect polls to be released that oversample Democrats by over 10 percentage points and use registered voters instead of likely voters and expect to get accurate results in the end.
ReplyDeleteOn the day I did this map, all of the states in red that are different from the official RCP map were within 4 points, the number I have chosen to predict the Bradley Effect. I do not think this is an outrageous number, since the USA Today said the Bradley Effect might be 6 pts, and liberal commentator Juan Williams said it will be about 5.
Also, on Thursday, October 9 I updated my projection and Obama is winning that one, 277 to 261.
And finally, Obama supposedly has about a 12 to 15 pt lead in Pennsylvania... Why did he make 4 separate campaign stops in the Philadelphia area this weekend if he has such an enormous lead? Why are McCain and Palin campaigning so much in the same state if they believe the polls?
If both the Democrat and Republican camps believe even a double-digit lead is not safe from a Bradley Effect, I do not believe my 4 point Bradley effect is such an outrage.