Saturday, November 1, 2008
Electoral Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Saturday, November 1, 2008:
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
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Even if your conspiracy theories (voter fraud, Acorn, walking around money)are true, why would those reasons suggest that McCain will win PA, VA, OH, and NH? If they are real dangers, wouldn't that suggest that Obama might get more than 239 EV?
ReplyDeleteThis website is very entertaining. I'll keep checking in.
First let me say I am a big fan of your brand of Comedy.
ReplyDeleteYou have a long list of things that you factor into your decision, which is good. I am just wondering if you can go into a little more detail on how you come up with your EV count.
You claim to start by Averaging out the state-by-state polls, which on its own would have Obama with a large EV lead of 300+ points.
Then you say you correcting rampant over sampling of Democrats. What do you think a proper sampling percentage would be? How many point in say PA or CO does McCain gain from this adjustment.
You claim to factor in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch. With the exception of PA they don't really seem to be spending much time in any blue states is that factored in, in favor of Obama? If think this is an advantage for McCain please explain how you come this conclusion. How is the state that they are campaigning in quantified and factored in your map?
You site an increased black turnout. How is that factored into your map? More specifically how many points does Obama gain in your poll from increased black turnout or maybe in your mind it a gain for McCain?
You also add, "an energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote." I assume you believe that the youth will not come out this election if so how much do you think this will hurt Obama.
You talk about voter fraud and mention ACORN while practically it would be extremely hard for people to vote as Micky Mouse or a member of the Dallas Cowboys since most registrar offices make background checks to confirm the Identity of new voters and many polling places require some Identification. Most experts that I have heard say there is no significant vote fraud in America. However for argument sake lets say there is voter fraud aren't these fake people suppose to be Democrats. Unless you are talking about voter suppression and you are pinning your hopes on being able to disenfranchise a large number of voters how much do you think that will help McCain?
You do talk about how much you think the Bradley Effect will be so no complaint their.
Jamie, voter fraud, ACORN, walking around money and a high youth turn out are the factors in Obama's favor.
ReplyDeleteAnd certainly Obama can get more electoral votes than 239. I believe the election will be very close. One state like PA by itself can shift it to 260 electoral votes for Obama.
And besides, if you don't like my predictions, there are scores of others by big media outlets that you would like much better. I have to put down what I believe. I am fully aware that there is a razor thin margin and I can be wrong, but I would rather be wrong writing down what I truly believed than to be right parroting what the media spoonfeeds me every day.
Jamie, thanks for being civil in spite of your disagreement with me.
Tai, I added more to my opening comments to this post in response to your email.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I believe the proper weighting should be D+2 at most as it was in 2006 (which was a great year for you guys).
And as I have stated before, of course I know I can be wrong. My map has changed many times as circumstances have changed.
Instead of hating my map, you should use it as a reminder not to become complacent. Obama should paste this map in every campaign office he has around the country to keep his followers motivated.
Thanks Tai,
Bogdan
Interesting site. I like that you state the rationale behind your projections.
ReplyDeleteThat said, what your analysis amounts to is saying that every poll is wrong. Wrong nationwide and statewide.
McCain hasn't lead in any poll in Colorado or Virginia for awhile now. This includes the same polls that accurately predicted Bush 43's win. Now they are suddenly inaccurate?
I would suggest that you might want to review party id and the reasons why a +2 Democrat is unlikely. Maybe you have some sources to support this claim?
The correct outcome has Obama with a 311-406 EV's! My humble prediction is 364. Sometimes America makes a course correction and this is one of those times.
Anyway, interesting site, I didn't know that The Rock was a conservative. I'll never pay to see another of his movies..lol!
Hi Tai,
ReplyDeleteHistory supports my +2 Democrat claim. 2006 was a bad year for Republicans and it was +2 Dem self-ID. (Not party registration).
Obviously I could be wrong. I believe the race is very tight in many states.
Thanks for you opinion and input.
If you win, good for you.
I'll probably be in concentration camp in New Mexico in 1 year.
Last post addressed to True, not Tai. See there, I made a mistake.
ReplyDelete