Sunday, November 2, 2008
Electoral College Map: McCain/Palin 299, Obama/Biden 239
1. Averaging out the state by state polls. (This is the base where I start from, but it is useless unless the following points are also taken into consideration)
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant, bi-pollar as another, more famous blogger with the initials AJS likes to say).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning AND advertising in down the stretch. This is my number 1 factor. Their internal polls are more accurate than media polls, and the best way to get a window on the internal polls is to see where the candidates are putting their money where their mouth is, and also where they are putting their boots on their feet.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote. (Checking to early voting regularly to see how it is going. Obviously I can not know Election Day early voting.)
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money. etc...
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...I don't believe it will be zero, but to play it safe I have been using a low number. Many liberals themselves have warned of up to around a 6 pt. Bradley Effect. So I'm using a pretty conservative number I think.
Here is the state of the Presidential Race
Today, Sunday, November 2, 2008:
Labels:
2008
,
Barack Hussein Obama
,
Electoral College Map
,
Joe Biden
,
John McCain
,
President
,
Sarah Palin
,
Vote
Subscribe to:
Post Comments
(
Atom
)
Hey chuckles, you have an interesting world view. I think you are going to be really disappointed around 7pm Eastern on Tuesday. I also wanted to pass along this tongue-in-cheek gem that I saw yesterday. Enjoy it.
ReplyDeleteComment from a Washington Post reader, posted 10/17/08:
Dear Red States,
We've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us.
In case you aren't aware, that includes Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan Illinois and all of the Northeast. We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, and especially to the people of the new country of New California.
To sum up briefly:
You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states.
We get stem cell research and the best beaches.
We get the Statue of Liberty. You get Dollywood.
We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom.
We get Harvard. You get Ole' Miss.
We get 85 percent of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs.
You get Alabama.
We get two-thirds of the tax revenue. You get to make the red states pay their fair share.
Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition's, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.
Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and antiwar, and we're going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. They have kids they're apparently willing to send to their deaths for no purpose, and they don't care if you don't show pictures of their children's caskets coming home. We do wish you success in Iraq, and hope that the WMDs turn up, but we're not willing to spend our resources in Bush's Quagmire.
With the Blue States in hand, we will have firm control of 80 percent of the country's fresh water, more than 90 percent of the pineapple and lettuce, 92 percent of the nation's fresh fruit, 95 percent of America's quality wines (you can serve French wines at state dinners) 90 percent of all cheese, 90 percent of the high-tech industry, most of 20 the U.S.
We get low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools, plus Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.
With the Red States, on the other hand, you will have to cope with 88 percent of all obese Americans (and their projected health care costs), 92 percent of all U.S. mosquitoes, nearly 100 percent of the tornadoes, 90 percent of the hurricanes, 99 percent of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100 percent of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.
We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you.
Additionally, 38 percent of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62 percent believe life is sacred unless we're discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44 percent say that evolution is only a theory, 53 percent that Saddam was involved in 9/11.
And 61 percent of you crazy monsters believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.
By the way, we're taking the good pot, too. You can have that dirt weed they grow in Mexico.
Peace out,
Blue States
Out of all the prognosticators watchdogging this election, you are probably the only one that will need to order crow and humble pie come Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteAnd YOU'RE gonna foot the bill.
Enjoy your dinner of defeat, son.
Eric, I'm glad that you doing well enough that you can perform simple tasks like cutting and pasting your post into dozens of conservative blogs.
ReplyDeleteObama is lucky to have someone 'special' like you working for him. Most people would find that kind of work to be boring and repetitive drudgery. But you just sit there, nodding your head back and forth, drooling as you gleefully cut... and... paste! Good boy!!!
JR, if I'm wrong, I will actually eat ice cream. That makes me feel better.
ReplyDeleteIf you like eating dead crows you find in your neighborhood, fine. Just watch out for that West Nile virus.
Bogdan, I hope the ice cream is yummy.
ReplyDeleteActually, yours is the only blog I thought deserved the sharing of the silly post above (which I obviously indicated was a copy & paste). Come one, are you so biased that you can't see the bittersweet humor there? Do you have any empathy and sense of just how disappointed and divided so much of this country has been for the past 8 years?
More importantly, will you spend the next 4 years focused on vile undermining of administration in hopes of a 1 term presidency? Or can we all rally to solve the real problems we face? BTW, I agree that the Rahm Emanuel appointment is potentially quite controversial. He is a tough, take-no-prisoners kind of guy who has earned a reputation for being brutally direct. At the same time, did you see what your own Lindsey Graham had to say today? He has a lot of admiration for Rahm. Maybe Obama chose a hardass, because he will need someone like Rahm to keep Pelosi and Reid in line and try to stay to the center?
I know it is corny, but can't we all get along? Did you actually watch Obama's speech? He had words in there just for you. I for one think he is genuine.