Why Pennsylvania Offers a lot of Opportunities for Republicans in 2010

"Pennsylvania has a history of swinging back and forth from Republican to Democrat, Democrat to Republican in statewide races," said Robb Austin, a Pennsylvania political consultant and former state representative.
This has been true in the Senate -- Democrat Harris Wofford won a special election to replace John Heinz in 1991, and was then defeated by conservative Republican Rick Santorum, who was knocked out four years ago by Democrat Robert Casey Jr. -- as well as in gubernatorial elections...

Real Clear Politics

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Idaho: Otter Leads Allred by 32 pts

Image via Wikipedia

Idaho Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 23, 2010

Election 2010: Idaho Governor
C.L. "Butch" Otter (R)	60%
Keith Allred (D)	28%
Some other candidate	3%
Not sure	9%

Rasmussen Reports

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Russians Don't Want Close Relations With US

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Thinking about foreign policy, what should Russia do in the next few years with regards to the United States?

	Feb. 2010	Mar. 2003
Build closer ties	14%	24%
Keep things as they are	40%	29%
Seek a greater distance	36%	38%
Hard to answer	11%	10%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews to 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Feb. 26 to Mar. 2, 2010. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.

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Submissive Canadians Happy With Economic Conditions

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

How would you rate the economic conditions in Canada today?

	Mar. 2010	Feb. 2010	Jan. 2010	Oct. 2009
Very Good / Good	54%	52%	48%	49%
Poor / Very Poor	41%	45%	45%	47%
Not sure	5%	3%	7%	4%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,004 Canadian adults, conducted on Mar. 25 and Mar. 26, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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South Dakota: Daugaard Most Likely to be Next Governor

South Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 25, 2010

Election 2010: South Dakota Governor
Dave Knudson (R)	32%
Scott Heidepriem (D)	37%
Some Other Candidate	13%
Not Sure	19%

Election 2010: South Dakota Governor
Dennis Daugaard (R)	49%
Scott Heidepriem (D)	32%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	13%

Election 2010: South Dakota Governor
Gordon Howie (R)	34%
Scott Heidepriem (D)	39%
Some Other Candidate	9%
Not Sure	17%

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• SD lawmakers split on giving state workers a raise (sfgate.com)

New Jersey: Christie's Approval Rating at 43-32

Gov. Christopher Christie has a 43%-32% job approval rating, and New Jersey voters narrowly back his proposed budget, 40%-30%, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind poll released this morning.  

Politicker NJ

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Bizarre: 2nd Democrat Politician Named Brown Switches Parties in Burlington County, NJ—In Space of 2 Weeks!

Already wounded and reeling hard from the dagger blow of another guy named Brown from Evesham, Democrats in Burlington felt the blade go in even deeper today as Freeholder Chris Brown joined Mayor Randy Brown in changing his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican.

A disaffected Brown said he ran for public office on a platform of fiscal conservatism and social responsibility, committed to using his private sector experience to streamline government and make it more accountable. 

Politicker NJ

Pennsylvania: Party Switch Could Cost Specter Job

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter made huge headlines when he switched parties for the second time last spring. The former Republican-turned-Democrat is campaigning for re-election this fall, but he's facing fierce competition from both sides.

CNN

South Dakota: Nelson Within 2 pts of Liberal Herseth-Sandlin

South Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 25, 2010

Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives
Chris Nelson (R)	42%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)	44%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	9%

Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives
Kristi Noem (R)	35%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)	46%
Some Other Candidate	8%
Not Sure	10%

Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives
Blake Curd (R)	33%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)	45%
Some Other Candidate	8%
Not Sure	14%

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Rasmussen Reports

Iowa: Leonard Boswell in Reelection Trouble

Until this year, Boswell has not faced re-election in an environment as potentially hazardous to his party. Boswell's district is the least friendly to federal officeholders, according to the February Iowa Poll.

Fifty-two percent of adults in the 3rd District said they were inclined to replace their federal representatives, the highest rate among Iowa's five congressional districts. The rate jumped even higher among the district's likely voters, to 58 percent.

Des Moines Register

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Rhode Island: Chafee Leads in Independant Bid for Governor

Rhode Island Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 25, 2010

Election 2010: Rhode Island Governor
John Robitaille (R)	26%
Patrick Lynch (D)	22%
Lincoln Chafee (I)	37%
Not Sure	15%

Election 2010: Rhode Island Governor
John Robitaille (R)	22%
Frank Caprio (D)	28%
Lincoln Chafee (I)	39%
Not Sure	11%

Rasmussen Reports

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Washington Post Compares Tea Party Americans to KKK

Affirmative action hire/journalist Colbert I. King has this to say:

The angry faces at Tea Party rallies are eerily familiar. They resemble faces of protesters lining the street at the University of Alabama in 1956 as Autherine Lucy, the school's first black student, bravely tried to walk to class...

Washington Post

New Mexico: Denish Leads Governors Race

New Mexico Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 24, 2010

Election 2010: New Mexico Governor
Susana Martinez (R)	32%
Diane Denish (D)	51%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	10%

Election 2010: New Mexico Governor
Pete Domenici, Jr. (R)	35%
Diane Denish (D)	52%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	6%

Election 2010: New Mexico Governor
Allen Weh (R)	35%
Diane Denish (D)	45%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	13%

Election 2010: New Mexico Governor
Janice Arnold-Jones (R)	30%
Diane Denish (D)	52%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	12%

Election 2010: New Mexico Governor
Doug Turner (R)	34%
Diane Denish (D)	43%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	16%

Rasmussen Reports

North Dakota: Hoeven Crushing Potter

Image via Wikipedia

North Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 23, 2010
 

Election 2010: North Dakota Senate
John Hoeven (R)	68%
Tracy Potter (D)	25%
Some Other Candidate	2%
Not Sure	5%

Rasmussen Reports

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Brazil: 3/4 Like Lula

Image via Wikipedia

How would you rate the performance of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as president?

	Mar. 2010	Feb. 2010	Nov. 2009
Good / Very Good	75%	76%	72%
Fair	19%	19%	21%
Bad / Very Bad	5%	5%	6%

Source: Ibope
Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Brazilian adults, conducted from Mar. 6 to Mar. 10, 2010. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent. 

 

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Czech Republic: Socialists Lead Civic Democratic Party

Image via Wikipedia

What party list would you vote for in the next parliamentary election?

	Mar. 2010	Feb. 2010	Jan. 2010
Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD)	27.9%	28.6%	28.7%
Civic Democratic Party (ODS)	20.0%	23.2%	20.9%
Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM)	11.3%	11.7%	10.9%
Tradition Responsibility Prosperity 09 (TOP 09)	7.7%	9.1%	8.4%
Public Affairs (VV)	6.2%	4.7%	3.9%
Christian and Democratic Union - Czech People’s Party (KDU-CSL)	4.8%	4.3%	4.2%
Green Party (SZ)	3.8%	2.7%	4.0%
Czech Party of Citizens’ Rights (SPO)	3.6%	n.a.	n.a.

Source: STEM
Methodology: Interviews with 1,243 Czech voters, conducted from Feb. 1 to Feb. 8, 2010. No margin of error was provided.

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California: Whitman Leads Brown, Campbell Leads Boxer

General Election Matchup: Governor (1,102 LVs, 3/9-16, MoE +/- 3%)
Whitman 44 (+8 vs. last poll, 1/12-19)
Brown 41 (-2)
Und 17 (-6)

Brown 46 (+2)
Poizner 31 (+2)
Und 23 (-4)

General Election Matchups: Senate
Campbell 44 (+3)
The Box 43 (-2)
Und 13 (-1)

The Box 44 (-4)
Fiorina 43 (+3)
Und 13 (+1)

The Box 46 (-1)
DeVore 40 (+1)
Und 14 (unch)

Source: Time (liberal pamphlet) via Real Clear Politics

Intrade Gives GOP 12% Chance of Picking Up 10 Senate Seats

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is currently projecting a seven-seat pick up for the Republicans. The Rothenberg Political Report gives the Republicans between five and seven pick ups, with eight “certainly possible.” Congressional Quarterly predicts the Republicans will take at least four seats away from the Democrats, and judges four others as toss ups. On the other hand, four Republican seats are also rated as toss ups by CQ.

The latest betting on Intrade markets looks for the Republicans to pick up four Democratic seats. The Intrade markets give the Republicans about a 12% chance of controlling the Senate.

Finally, RealClearPolitics figures the Republicans will take seven seats, based on current polling data. 

Marketwatch

Florida: McCollum With Comfortable Lead Over Sink

Florida Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
March 18, 2010

Election 2010: Florida Governor
Bill McCollum (R)	47%
Alex Sink (D)	36%
Some other candidate	5%
Not sure	12%

Rasmussen Reports

North Carolina: Burr Continues to Enjoy Large Lead

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina
March 22, 2010
 

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate
Richard Burr (R)	51%
Elaine Marshall (D)	35%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not sure	8%

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate
Richard Burr (R)	51%
Cal Cunningham (D)	32%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not sure	11%

Rasmussen Reports

North Dakota: Pomeroy in Trouble

North Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 23-24, 2010

Election 2010: North Dakota House of Reps
Rick Berg (R). 51%
Earl Pomeroy (D). 44%
Some Other Candidate 1%
Not Sure. 4%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

GOP Renaissance in the Northeast

After all the gleeful boasts by the media about the death of the Republicans in the Northeast, we now see things are about to change. Real Clear Politics 2010 Governor, House and Senate maps reveals the following Democrats who are in trouble:

Connecticut:
District 4 and 5 is in trouble.
 
Delaware:  
Mike Castle likely to pick up Senate seat.


Maryland:
District 1 likely GOP pick up.

Massachusetts: 
District 10 is a toss-up.
And we already know about Scott Brown.


New Hampshire:
Both House seats are leaning toward the GOP.
GOP likely to keep Senate seat.

New Jersey:
District 3's Adler in trouble.
Chris Christie now Governor.
Also, the GOP did unusually well in last November's election at the local level for two years in a row.

New York: 
District 29 a likely GOP pick up.
Districts 1, 13, 19, 23, 24 are toss-ups.
District 20, 25 in trouble.
Senator Gillibrand in trouble.

Pennsylvania: 
District 7 and 12 are leaning toward the GOP.
Districts 8, 11, 17 are toss-ups.
Districts 3, 4 and 10 only lean toward the Democrats.
GOP likely to pick up the governorship.
Last November's statewide judicial elections.

Illinois: Democrat Halvorson Trails GOP Challenger

Adam Kinzinger currently leads on the ballot test 44%-38% over Congresswoman Halvorson, with 16% of voters undecided. Among high interest voters (8-10s), Kinzinger’s lead improves to 49%-35%, with 13% undecided.

National Review/Campaign Spot

Real Conservatism on the Rise in Canada Too

Image via Wikipedia

Earlier this month, the Crowne Plaza hotel in downtown Ottawa played host to two consecutive conferences, a small one by the Institute of Marriage and Family Canada followed by a big one by the Manning Centre for Building Democracy. Both were well attended by current and former ministers, employees and strategists of the Harper government. Both drew energetic crowds of activists and ordinary people. Both gave free rein to an unabashed social conservatism that is rarely mentioned, and even less frequently championed, by even prominent fiscal conservatives in the big papers and magazines. And the mood at both gatherings was overwhelmingly optimistic, because the kind of conservatism that appeals to these organizations is demonstrably on the march in Ottawa and across Canada.

MacLean's

Iowa: Grassley Cruising in Reelection

Iowa Senator, Chuck Grassley. Image via Wikipedia

Iowa Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 17, 2010

Election 2010: Iowa Senate
Charles Grassley (R)	57%
Bob Krause (D)	31%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	8%

Election 2010: Iowa Senate
Charles Grassley (R)	55%
Roxanne Conlin (D)	36%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	5%

Election 2010: Iowa Senate
Charles Grassley (R)	57%
Tom Fiegen (D)	28%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	9%

Rasmussen Reports

Arizona: Martin or Mills Would Defeat Goddard

Arizona Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 16, 2010

2010 Arizona Governor Race
Jan Brewer (R)	36%
Terry Goddard (D)	45%
Some Other Candidate	12%
Not Sure	7%

2010 Arizona Governor Race
Dean Martin (R)	43%
Terry Goddard (D)	38%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	13%

2010 Arizona Governor Race
John Munger (R)	36%
Terry Goddard (D)	42%
Some Other Candidate	13%
Not Sure	9%

2010 Arizona Governor Race
Buz Mills (R)	43%
Terry Goddard (D)	37%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	13%

Rasmussen Reports

Indiana: Republicans Likely to Pick Up Bayh's Senate Seat

Pelosi stooge, Brad Ellsworth, is in a lot of trouble. Image via Wikipedia

Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 17-18, 2010

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Dan Coats (R)	49%
Brad Ellsworth (D)	34%
Some other candidate	6%
Not sure	12%

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
John Hostettler (R)	50%
Brad Ellsworth (D)	32%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure	15%

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Marlin Stutzman (R)	41%
Brad Ellsworth (D)	34%
Some other candidate	6%
Not sure	18%

Rasmussen Reports

Health Care: List of the Congress Members Who Stabbed Us in the Back

Ackerman Andrews Baca Baird Baldwin Bean Becerra Berkley Berman Bishop (GA) Bishop (NY) Blumenauer Boccieri Boswell Boyd Brady (PA) Braley (IA) Brown, Corrine Butterfield Capps Capuano Cardoza Carnahan Carney Carson (IN) Castor (FL) Chu Clarke Clay Cleaver Clyburn Cohen Connolly (VA) Conyers Cooper Costa Costello Courtney Crowley Cuellar Cummings Dahlkemper Davis (CA) Davis (IL) DeFazio DeGette Delahunt DeLauro Dicks Dingell Doggett Donnelly (IN) Doyle Driehaus Edwards (MD) Ellison Ellsworth Engel Eshoo Etheridge Farr Fattah Filner Foster Frank (MA) Fudge Garamendi Giffords Gonzalez Gordon (TN) Grayson Green, Al Green, Gene

Grijalva Gutierrez Hall (NY) Halvorson Hare Harman Hastings (FL) Heinrich Higgins Hill Himes Hinchey Hinojosa Hirono Hodes Holt Honda Hoyer Inslee Israel Jackson (IL) Jackson Lee (TX) Johnson (GA) Johnson, E. B. Kagen Kanjorski Kaptur Kennedy Kildee Kilpatrick (MI) Kilroy Kind Kirkpatrick (AZ) Klein (FL) Kosmas Kucinich Langevin Larsen (WA) Larson (CT) Lee (CA) Levin Lewis (GA) Loebsack Lofgren, Zoe Lowey Luján Maffei Maloney Markey (CO) Markey (MA) Matsui McCarthy (NY) McCollum McDermott McGovern McNerney Meek (FL) Meeks (NY) Michaud Miller (NC) Miller, George Mitchell Mollohan Moore (KS) Moore (WI) Moran (VA) Murphy (CT) Murphy (NY) Murphy, Patrick Nadler (NY) Napolitano Neal (MA) Oberstar

Obey Olver Ortiz Owens Pallone Pascrell Pastor (AZ) Payne Pelosi Perlmutter Perriello Peters Pingree (ME) Polis (CO) Pomeroy Price (NC) Quigley Rahall Rangel Reyes Richardson Rodriguez Rothman (NJ) Roybal-Allard Ruppersberger Rush Ryan (OH) Salazar Sánchez, Linda T. Sanchez, Loretta Sarbanes Schakowsky Schauer Schiff Schrader Schwartz Scott (GA) Scott (VA) Serrano Sestak Shea-Porter Sherman Sires Slaughter Smith (WA) Snyder Speier Spratt Stark Stupak Sutton Thompson (CA) Thompson (MS) Tierney Titus Tonko Towns Tsongas Van Hollen Velázquez Visclosky Walz Wasserman Schultz Waters Watson Watt Waxman Weiner Welch Wilson (OH) Woolsey Wu Yarmuth

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PARTY SWITCH: New Jersey Democrat Mayor Becomes a Republican

Evesham Mayor Randy Brown will run as a Republican this November in the township’s first partisan election.
The former Democrat announced last week that he would be switching political parties in time for this year’s primary and general elections.  

Marlton Telegram

Official: Stupak Throws the Unborn Under the Bus

New York: Staten Island GOP Divided Over Lazio & Levy

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The Staten Island Republican Party's executive committee unanimously endorsed former Long Island congressman Rick Lazio for governor last night, but former GOP Borough President Guy Molinari came out in support of Democrat-turned-Republican Steve Levy, the Suffolk County executive. 

Staten Island Live

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• Conservative Party backs ex-Rep. Lazio for NY gov (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

Pennsylvania: Toomey Leads Specter by 9

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
March 15, 2010

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R)	49%
Arlen Specter (D)	40%
Some Other Candidate	5%
Not sure	7%

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R)	42%
Joe Sestak (D)	37%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not sure	15%

Rasmussen Reports

 

Related articles 

• Toomey Holds Big Leads in Pennsylvania (politicalwire.com)

California: Tom Campbell Trails The Box by 2 pts

Image via Wikipedia

California Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 11, 2010

Election 2010: California Senate
Carly Fiorina (R)	40%
Barbara Boxer (D)	46%
Some other candidate	4%
Not Sure	10%

Election 2010: California Senate
Chuck DeVore (R)	40%
Barbara Boxer (D)	46%
Some other candidate	4%
Not Sure	9%

Election 2010: California Senate
Tom Campbell (R)	41%
Barbara Boxer (D)	43%
Some other candidate	6%
Not Sure	10%

Rasmussen Reports

 

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• Carly Fiorina downs sinister Democrat hot air balloon (go.theregister.com)
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• Campbell Has Shaken Up The GOP Bid To Unseat Boxer (huffingtonpost.com)
• Fiorina assails Washington, Boxer as out of touch (sfgate.com)
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• 2 reviews of California (Barbara Boxer-D) (rateitall.com)

RedState.com Editor to Become CNN Contributor

How will Erick Erickson react to having a much smaller audience?

Back in January, Politico noted that Erickson (pictured at right) and CNN denied a rumor floating around at the time that the Macon, Ga.-based conservative blogger would replace John King. It turns out Erickson will be a regular contributor to a brand new weekday evening program to be hosted by the veteran anchor.
Newsbusters

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New York: Democrat Congressman Eric Massa to Retire; Gay Sexual Harassment Scandal?

As a freshman representing New York’s most Republican House district, Massa was one of the most endangered Democrats in the delegation. Republicans had been aggressively targeting his seat and landed top recruit Tom Reed, the Republican mayor of Corning, to challenge him.

Massa is now the 15th House Democrat to announce retirement plans, with 11 of them leaving districts that Republicans are aggressively contesting. House Republicans face 19 retirements within GOP ranks, but most of their departing members hail from safe seats.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33864.html#ixzz0h9jDUJQL

 

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Maryland: Conservative County Terrorized by Democrat School Board

Image via Wikipedia

"Anne Arundel County has a Republican county executive, a Republican majority in the County Council," said Herb McMillan, a former delegate and president of the Maryland Taxpayers Association. "The process takes the selection of school board members out of the hands of voters. It denies the majority of people any voice at all on issues that are important to them, the education of their children."

HomeTownAnnapolis.com

Georgia: Nathan Deal Quits Congress to Run Full Time for Governor

Image via Wikipedia

I'm leaving Congress because I've had a front row seat to the damage that inexperience in the executive branch of the federal government has done to our nation ... a growing debt that will bankrupt our children's future, an ever increasing grasp by government that snatches away our freedom, and an effort to bargain away the rights of our state for a few crumbs of federal tax dollars that are packaged as stimulus.
My experience has prepared me to be a governor who understands these dangers. This is not a time for untested leadership in the governor's office. The economic future of our state is in peril. I am committed and ready to serve this great state.
—Nathan Deal

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Barbara Boxer's Self-Serving Novel

The villain in "A Time to Run," Sen. Barbara Boxer's first novel, is a conservative writer for The San Francisco Chronicle. A salvo at moi? Hardly. His name is Greg Hunter, and Boxer's alter ego, Ellen Fischer, also a Democratic senator from California, has a personal history with the scribe, including one special night when they were both students at UC Berkeley. 

Rasmussen Reports

 

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• Democrats' Obama bounce in California disappearing (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• California Poll Shows Support for Sen. Boxer Is Slipping (blogs.wsj.com)
• Boxer in tight race for reelection (tech.bl0x.info)
• Feinstein Says She Will Not Run for Governor (laist.com)