California: Whitman Leads Brown, Campbell Leads Boxer

General Election Matchup: Governor (1,102 LVs, 3/9-16, MoE +/- 3%)
Whitman 44 (+8 vs. last poll, 1/12-19)
Brown 41 (-2)
Und 17 (-6)

Brown 46 (+2)
Poizner 31 (+2)
Und 23 (-4)

General Election Matchups: Senate
Campbell 44 (+3)
The Box 43 (-2)
Und 13 (-1)

The Box 44 (-4)
Fiorina 43 (+3)
Und 13 (+1)

The Box 46 (-1)
DeVore 40 (+1)
Und 14 (unch)

Source: Time (liberal pamphlet) via Real Clear Politics

Intrade Gives GOP 12% Chance of Picking Up 10 Senate Seats

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is currently projecting a seven-seat pick up for the Republicans. The Rothenberg Political Report gives the Republicans between five and seven pick ups, with eight “certainly possible.” Congressional Quarterly predicts the Republicans will take at least four seats away from the Democrats, and judges four others as toss ups. On the other hand, four Republican seats are also rated as toss ups by CQ.

The latest betting on Intrade markets looks for the Republicans to pick up four Democratic seats. The Intrade markets give the Republicans about a 12% chance of controlling the Senate.

Finally, RealClearPolitics figures the Republicans will take seven seats, based on current polling data. 

Marketwatch

Florida: McCollum With Comfortable Lead Over Sink

Florida Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
March 18, 2010

Election 2010: Florida Governor
Bill McCollum (R)	47%
Alex Sink (D)	36%
Some other candidate	5%
Not sure	12%

Rasmussen Reports

North Carolina: Burr Continues to Enjoy Large Lead

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina
March 22, 2010
 

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate
Richard Burr (R)	51%
Elaine Marshall (D)	35%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not sure	8%

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate
Richard Burr (R)	51%
Cal Cunningham (D)	32%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not sure	11%

Rasmussen Reports

North Dakota: Pomeroy in Trouble

North Dakota Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 23-24, 2010

Election 2010: North Dakota House of Reps
Rick Berg (R). 51%
Earl Pomeroy (D). 44%
Some Other Candidate 1%
Not Sure. 4%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

GOP Renaissance in the Northeast

After all the gleeful boasts by the media about the death of the Republicans in the Northeast, we now see things are about to change. Real Clear Politics 2010 Governor, House and Senate maps reveals the following Democrats who are in trouble:

Connecticut:
District 4 and 5 is in trouble.
 
Delaware:  
Mike Castle likely to pick up Senate seat.


Maryland:
District 1 likely GOP pick up.

Massachusetts: 
District 10 is a toss-up.
And we already know about Scott Brown.


New Hampshire:
Both House seats are leaning toward the GOP.
GOP likely to keep Senate seat.

New Jersey:
District 3's Adler in trouble.
Chris Christie now Governor.
Also, the GOP did unusually well in last November's election at the local level for two years in a row.

New York: 
District 29 a likely GOP pick up.
Districts 1, 13, 19, 23, 24 are toss-ups.
District 20, 25 in trouble.
Senator Gillibrand in trouble.

Pennsylvania: 
District 7 and 12 are leaning toward the GOP.
Districts 8, 11, 17 are toss-ups.
Districts 3, 4 and 10 only lean toward the Democrats.
GOP likely to pick up the governorship.
Last November's statewide judicial elections.

Illinois: Democrat Halvorson Trails GOP Challenger

Adam Kinzinger currently leads on the ballot test 44%-38% over Congresswoman Halvorson, with 16% of voters undecided. Among high interest voters (8-10s), Kinzinger’s lead improves to 49%-35%, with 13% undecided.

National Review/Campaign Spot

Real Conservatism on the Rise in Canada Too

Image via Wikipedia

Earlier this month, the Crowne Plaza hotel in downtown Ottawa played host to two consecutive conferences, a small one by the Institute of Marriage and Family Canada followed by a big one by the Manning Centre for Building Democracy. Both were well attended by current and former ministers, employees and strategists of the Harper government. Both drew energetic crowds of activists and ordinary people. Both gave free rein to an unabashed social conservatism that is rarely mentioned, and even less frequently championed, by even prominent fiscal conservatives in the big papers and magazines. And the mood at both gatherings was overwhelmingly optimistic, because the kind of conservatism that appeals to these organizations is demonstrably on the march in Ottawa and across Canada.

MacLean's

Iowa: Grassley Cruising in Reelection

Iowa Senator, Chuck Grassley. Image via Wikipedia

Iowa Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 17, 2010

Election 2010: Iowa Senate
Charles Grassley (R)	57%
Bob Krause (D)	31%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	8%

Election 2010: Iowa Senate
Charles Grassley (R)	55%
Roxanne Conlin (D)	36%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	5%

Election 2010: Iowa Senate
Charles Grassley (R)	57%
Tom Fiegen (D)	28%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	9%

Rasmussen Reports

Arizona: Martin or Mills Would Defeat Goddard

Arizona Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 16, 2010

2010 Arizona Governor Race
Jan Brewer (R)	36%
Terry Goddard (D)	45%
Some Other Candidate	12%
Not Sure	7%

2010 Arizona Governor Race
Dean Martin (R)	43%
Terry Goddard (D)	38%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	13%

2010 Arizona Governor Race
John Munger (R)	36%
Terry Goddard (D)	42%
Some Other Candidate	13%
Not Sure	9%

2010 Arizona Governor Race
Buz Mills (R)	43%
Terry Goddard (D)	37%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	13%

Rasmussen Reports

Indiana: Republicans Likely to Pick Up Bayh's Senate Seat

Pelosi stooge, Brad Ellsworth, is in a lot of trouble. Image via Wikipedia

Indiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 17-18, 2010

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Dan Coats (R)	49%
Brad Ellsworth (D)	34%
Some other candidate	6%
Not sure	12%

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
John Hostettler (R)	50%
Brad Ellsworth (D)	32%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure	15%

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Marlin Stutzman (R)	41%
Brad Ellsworth (D)	34%
Some other candidate	6%
Not sure	18%

Rasmussen Reports

Health Care: List of the Congress Members Who Stabbed Us in the Back

Ackerman Andrews Baca Baird Baldwin Bean Becerra Berkley Berman Bishop (GA) Bishop (NY) Blumenauer Boccieri Boswell Boyd Brady (PA) Braley (IA) Brown, Corrine Butterfield Capps Capuano Cardoza Carnahan Carney Carson (IN) Castor (FL) Chu Clarke Clay Cleaver Clyburn Cohen Connolly (VA) Conyers Cooper Costa Costello Courtney Crowley Cuellar Cummings Dahlkemper Davis (CA) Davis (IL) DeFazio DeGette Delahunt DeLauro Dicks Dingell Doggett Donnelly (IN) Doyle Driehaus Edwards (MD) Ellison Ellsworth Engel Eshoo Etheridge Farr Fattah Filner Foster Frank (MA) Fudge Garamendi Giffords Gonzalez Gordon (TN) Grayson Green, Al Green, Gene

Grijalva Gutierrez Hall (NY) Halvorson Hare Harman Hastings (FL) Heinrich Higgins Hill Himes Hinchey Hinojosa Hirono Hodes Holt Honda Hoyer Inslee Israel Jackson (IL) Jackson Lee (TX) Johnson (GA) Johnson, E. B. Kagen Kanjorski Kaptur Kennedy Kildee Kilpatrick (MI) Kilroy Kind Kirkpatrick (AZ) Klein (FL) Kosmas Kucinich Langevin Larsen (WA) Larson (CT) Lee (CA) Levin Lewis (GA) Loebsack Lofgren, Zoe Lowey Luján Maffei Maloney Markey (CO) Markey (MA) Matsui McCarthy (NY) McCollum McDermott McGovern McNerney Meek (FL) Meeks (NY) Michaud Miller (NC) Miller, George Mitchell Mollohan Moore (KS) Moore (WI) Moran (VA) Murphy (CT) Murphy (NY) Murphy, Patrick Nadler (NY) Napolitano Neal (MA) Oberstar

Obey Olver Ortiz Owens Pallone Pascrell Pastor (AZ) Payne Pelosi Perlmutter Perriello Peters Pingree (ME) Polis (CO) Pomeroy Price (NC) Quigley Rahall Rangel Reyes Richardson Rodriguez Rothman (NJ) Roybal-Allard Ruppersberger Rush Ryan (OH) Salazar Sánchez, Linda T. Sanchez, Loretta Sarbanes Schakowsky Schauer Schiff Schrader Schwartz Scott (GA) Scott (VA) Serrano Sestak Shea-Porter Sherman Sires Slaughter Smith (WA) Snyder Speier Spratt Stark Stupak Sutton Thompson (CA) Thompson (MS) Tierney Titus Tonko Towns Tsongas Van Hollen Velázquez Visclosky Walz Wasserman Schultz Waters Watson Watt Waxman Weiner Welch Wilson (OH) Woolsey Wu Yarmuth

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PARTY SWITCH: New Jersey Democrat Mayor Becomes a Republican

Evesham Mayor Randy Brown will run as a Republican this November in the township’s first partisan election.
The former Democrat announced last week that he would be switching political parties in time for this year’s primary and general elections.  

Marlton Telegram

Official: Stupak Throws the Unborn Under the Bus

New York: Staten Island GOP Divided Over Lazio & Levy

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The Staten Island Republican Party's executive committee unanimously endorsed former Long Island congressman Rick Lazio for governor last night, but former GOP Borough President Guy Molinari came out in support of Democrat-turned-Republican Steve Levy, the Suffolk County executive. 

Staten Island Live

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Pennsylvania: Toomey Leads Specter by 9

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
March 15, 2010

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R)	49%
Arlen Specter (D)	40%
Some Other Candidate	5%
Not sure	7%

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R)	42%
Joe Sestak (D)	37%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not sure	15%

Rasmussen Reports

 

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California: Tom Campbell Trails The Box by 2 pts

Image via Wikipedia

California Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 11, 2010

Election 2010: California Senate
Carly Fiorina (R)	40%
Barbara Boxer (D)	46%
Some other candidate	4%
Not Sure	10%

Election 2010: California Senate
Chuck DeVore (R)	40%
Barbara Boxer (D)	46%
Some other candidate	4%
Not Sure	9%

Election 2010: California Senate
Tom Campbell (R)	41%
Barbara Boxer (D)	43%
Some other candidate	6%
Not Sure	10%

Rasmussen Reports

 

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• Campbell, Whitman Still Lead in California (politicalwire.com)
• Campbell Has Shaken Up The GOP Bid To Unseat Boxer (huffingtonpost.com)
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RedState.com Editor to Become CNN Contributor

How will Erick Erickson react to having a much smaller audience?

Back in January, Politico noted that Erickson (pictured at right) and CNN denied a rumor floating around at the time that the Macon, Ga.-based conservative blogger would replace John King. It turns out Erickson will be a regular contributor to a brand new weekday evening program to be hosted by the veteran anchor.
Newsbusters

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New York: Democrat Congressman Eric Massa to Retire; Gay Sexual Harassment Scandal?

As a freshman representing New York’s most Republican House district, Massa was one of the most endangered Democrats in the delegation. Republicans had been aggressively targeting his seat and landed top recruit Tom Reed, the Republican mayor of Corning, to challenge him.

Massa is now the 15th House Democrat to announce retirement plans, with 11 of them leaving districts that Republicans are aggressively contesting. House Republicans face 19 retirements within GOP ranks, but most of their departing members hail from safe seats.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33864.html#ixzz0h9jDUJQL

 

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Maryland: Conservative County Terrorized by Democrat School Board

Image via Wikipedia

"Anne Arundel County has a Republican county executive, a Republican majority in the County Council," said Herb McMillan, a former delegate and president of the Maryland Taxpayers Association. "The process takes the selection of school board members out of the hands of voters. It denies the majority of people any voice at all on issues that are important to them, the education of their children."

HomeTownAnnapolis.com

Georgia: Nathan Deal Quits Congress to Run Full Time for Governor

Image via Wikipedia

I'm leaving Congress because I've had a front row seat to the damage that inexperience in the executive branch of the federal government has done to our nation ... a growing debt that will bankrupt our children's future, an ever increasing grasp by government that snatches away our freedom, and an effort to bargain away the rights of our state for a few crumbs of federal tax dollars that are packaged as stimulus.
My experience has prepared me to be a governor who understands these dangers. This is not a time for untested leadership in the governor's office. The economic future of our state is in peril. I am committed and ready to serve this great state.
—Nathan Deal

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Barbara Boxer's Self-Serving Novel

The villain in "A Time to Run," Sen. Barbara Boxer's first novel, is a conservative writer for The San Francisco Chronicle. A salvo at moi? Hardly. His name is Greg Hunter, and Boxer's alter ego, Ellen Fischer, also a Democratic senator from California, has a personal history with the scribe, including one special night when they were both students at UC Berkeley. 

Rasmussen Reports

 

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Kansas: Brownback Leads Holland by 22 pts

Image via Wikipedia

Kansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 24, 2010

Election 2010: Kansas Governor
Sam Brownback (R)	55%
Tom Holland (D)	33%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	8%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

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Panama: President Martinelli Still Popular, but Losing Support

How would you rate the performance of Ricardo Martinelli as president?

	Feb. 2010	Jan. 2010	Oct. 2009
Good / Very Good	68.5%	81.4%	90.7%
Bad / Very Bad	27.3%	15.6%	7.1%

Source: Dichter & Neira / TVN
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,200 Panamanian adults, conducted from Feb. 5 to Feb. 7, 2010. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.
 

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Half of Canadians Happy With Their Economy

Image via Wikipedia

How would you rate the economic conditions in Canada today?

	Feb. 2010	Jan. 2010	Oct. 2009	Sept. 2009
Very Good / Good	52%	48%	49%	47%
Poor / Very Poor	45%	45%	47%	49%
Not sure	3%	7%	4%	4%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,013 Canadian adults, conducted on Feb. 23 and Feb. 24, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

 

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Pennsylvania: Murtha's Widow Won't Run

The race among Democrats to fill Pennsylvania's Rep. John Murtha's seat often seems like a competition over who would most resemble the 18-term Johnstown powerbroker once in office.
On Monday, the person who would most embody that sentiment, his widow, Joyce, said she is not going to run for the seat -- opening the Democratic field for more than a half-dozen candidates. The Murtha for Congress Committee said in a statement that Mrs. Murtha "feels that it is too soon after his death to be on the campaign trail."

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

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Florida: McCollum Leads Sink by 13

Image via Wikipedia

McCollum 48 (+2 vs. last poll, 1/29)
Sink 35 (unch)
Und 12 (-1)

Real Clear Politics

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Wisconsin: Republicans Lead Governors Race

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin
February 17, 2010

Election 2010: Wisconsin Governor
Mark Neumann (R)	44%
Tom Barrett (D)	42%
Other	4%
Not sure	10%

Election 2010: Wisconsin Governor
Scott Walker (R)	49%
Tom Barrett (D)	40%
Other	1%
Not sure	10%

Rasmussen Reports

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Ohio: Portman Primary Challenger Decides to Challenge Congresswoman Instead

Image via Wikipedia

The [Tom] Ganley switch is a coup for Republicans because it gives former Rep. Rob Portman a clear path to the GOP Senate nomination and could put another Democratic-held House seat into play. A recent internal GOP poll showed Ganley leading Sutton by 3 points. 

The Hill

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Oregon: Finally, a Democrat Who Looks Like he Might Win in November

Oregon Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 16, 2010

Election 2010: Oregon Senate
Jim Huffman (R)	35%
Ron Wyden (D)	49%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	9%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

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Tennessee: Bredeson's Press Secretary Denying Rumored Switch to GOP

Poll: GOP Making Striking Gains Against Dems

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll is signaling that the Republican Party’s resurgence is gaining strength as a growing number of Americans seem to think conservatives may be better at managing the economy than President Barack Obama and the Democrats.

The poll of 1,004 adults nationwide shows Republicans have narrowed the gap with the Democrats when it comes to who voters trust more to deal with the country’s problems. This shift erodes one of what had been Obama’s major political advantages.

NewsMax

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New York: Jamestown Councilman Switches to Independence Party

Earlier this week, City Councilman Steve Szwejbka, the city's Ward 1 councilman, cited frustration with the status quo as his main reason for leaving the Democratic Party in favor of the Independence Party.
Szwejbka, who has been a member of the Democratic Party since the mid-1970s, is entering his third term as a Jamestown City Councilman. He serves on the council's Public Safety and Housing committees.

Post-Journal

Washington: Rossi Leads Murray

Patty Murray, widely recognized as the stupidest member of the US Senate, is in trouble if she has to take on Dino Rossi, but seems to be having an easier time against the other candidates.

Washington Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 11, 2010

2010 Washington Senate
Dino Rossi (R)	48%
Patty Murray (D)	46%
Some Other Candidate	1%
Not Sure	5%

2010 Washington Senate
Don Benton (R)	38%
Patty Murray (D)	50%
Some Other Candidate	3%
Not Sure	9%

2010 Washington Senate
Clint Didier (R)	34%
Patty Murray (D)	49%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	13%

2010 Washington Senate
Chris Widener (R)	33%
Patty Murray (D)	48%
Some Other Candidate	5%
Not Sure	14%

Rasmussen Reports

California: Whitman Tied With Brown

California Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 15, 2010

Election 2010: California Governor
Meg Whitman (R)	43%
Jerry Brown (D)	43%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	8%

Election 2010: California Governor
Steve Poizner (R)	34%
Jerry Brown (D)	46%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	13%

Election 2010: California Governor
Meg Whitman (R)	43%
Dianne Feinstein (D)	45%
Some Other Candidate	2%
Not Sure	9%

Election 2010: California Governor
Steve Poizner (R)	36%
Dianne Feinstein (D)	48%
Some Other Candidate	5%
Not Sure	11%

Rasmussen Reports

Alabama: Chilton County Sheriff Switches to Republican Party for 2010

Chilton County Sheriff Kevin Davis plans to seek re-election in 2010, but this time as a Republican candidate.
Davis, who was elected as a Democrat in 2006, had shared his decision with several people prior to Friday. He said he felt that the timing was right to make the announcement.

Clanton Advertiser

New York: County Legislator Switches to GOP

Monroe County legislator, Carmen Gumina.

“There are many reasons I have made this change, but they all go back to my single most important priority as an elected official: being the best possible representative for my constituents in the town of Webster,” Gumina said during a news conference at GOP headquarters on State Street. “A bright future for Webster depends on a county government that believes in fiscal conservatism and protecting taxpayers.”

RocNow.com

Connecticut: Blumenthal Leads Simmons by 19, McMahon by 20

Image via Wikipedia

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in CT
February 1, 2010

Election 2010: Connecticut Senate Race
Rob Simmons (R)	35%
Richard Blumenthal (D)	54%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure	7%

Election 2010: Connecticut Senate Race
Linda McMahon (R)	36%
Richard Blumenthal (D)	56%
Other	3%
Not sure	4%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

South Carolina: Spratt's Lead Shrinks to 7 pts

The survey of 600 fifth Congressional district voters found [John] Spratt, who until now has been considered an untouchable Democrat, had only a seven point lead on State Sen. Mick Mulvaney.
“John Spratt is going to have to fight for reelection but he’s in better shape than a lot of southern Democrats in conservative districts,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Most of his constituents still see him as a centrist, even as they see his Congressional Democratic brethren as too liberal.”

The Palmetto Scoop

New Jersey: Pallone in Trouble Too?

State Republicans are taking a serious look at Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair Diane Gooch to run against U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch), in part because of the depth of her pockets.

Gooch, who lives in Rumson and publishes the Two River Times in Red Bank, is married to Michael Gooch, the CEO of the New York-based brokerage firm GFI group who is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.    

Politicker NJ