Massachusetts: Delahunt Looks Like GOP's Next Target

At least five people are considering a run for the 10th Congressional District seat he has held since 1997.
The growing field includes three former and current state office holders – former State Treasurer Joe Malone of Scituate; state Sen. Robert Hedlund, R-Weymouth; and state Rep. Jeff Perry, R-Sandwich – as well as two political newcomers, Don Hussey of Hingham and Ray Kasperowicz of Cohasset.

Enterprise News

British Have Poor Opinion of Economy

How would you rate the economic conditions in the UK today?

	Jan. 2010	Aug. 2009
Very Good / Good	14%	6%
Poor / Very Poor	83%	90%
Not sure	2%	3%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 2,004 British adults, conducted on Jan. 26 and Jan. 27, 2010. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

Americans Expect Gay Marriage to be Found Unconstitutional

As you may know, a U.S. District Court is reviewing the constitutional validity of California’s Proposition 8, which restored the definition of marriage in California as being between a man and a woman. It is expected that the case will eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court, which may end up ruling about the validity of same-sex marriage at the federal level. If this case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, what do you expect the outcome to be? If this case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, what do you expect the outcome to be?

A ruling that defines marriage federally as between a man and a woman	52%
A ruling that defines marriage federally as between two people	28%
Not sure	19%

And, if this case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, what would you prefer the outcome to be?

A ruling that defines marriage federally as between a man and a woman	58%
A ruling that defines marriage federally as between two people	34%
Not sure	8%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Jan. 12 and Jan. 13, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

North Carolina: Burr Has Large Leads Over Marshall, Cunningham

Survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina
January 27, 2010

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate Race
Richard Burr (R)	47%
Elaine Marshall (D)	37%
Other	6%
Not sure	10%

Election 2010: North Carolina Senate Race
Richard Burr (R)	50%
Cal Cunningham (D)	34%
Other	5%
Not sure	11%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

Connecticut: Shays May Run Again

Image via Wikipedia

Politico is reporting that Republican Christopher Shays may run again for his old congressional seat against Democrat Jim Himes. But is this kind of weak, half-conservative someone who will hire up the base like other candidates have? Probably not, but he may be enough to kick Himes out in a year when just not being a Democrat is a big advantage.

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Indiana: Pence Leads Bayh, Hostettler Trails by 3

Image via Wikipedia

Survey of 800 Likely Voters
January 21 & 24, 2010

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
John Hostettler (R)	41%
Evan Bayh (D)	44%
Some other candidate	3%
Not sure	12%

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Mike Pence (R)	47%
Evan Bayh (D)	44%
Some other candidate	3%
Not sure	7%

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Marlin Stutzman (R)	33%
Evan Bayh (D)	45%
Some other candidate	5%
Not sure	16%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

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• Pence Mulls Bayh Challenge (politicalwire.com)
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• Indiana asks questions about casino bridge claim (sfgate.com)

Indiana: Baron Hill in Trouble

A poll conducted just before Tuesday's vote in Massachusetts by USA Survey for the Web site firedoglake.com found that, in a head-to-head match-up, Mr. [Mike] Sodrel would beat Mr. [Baron] Hill 49% to 41%, with 10% of the voters undecided.

Wall Street Journal

Scott Brown's Win Helped by Union Member Revolt

Republican Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts Senate race was lifted by strong support from union households, in a sign of trouble for President Barack Obama and Democrats who are counting on union support in the 2010 midterm elections.
A poll conducted on behalf of the AFL-CIO found that 49% of Massachusetts union households supported Mr. Brown in Tuesday's voting, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley. The poll conducted by Hart Research Associates surveyed 810 voters.
The finding, disclosed during an AFL-CIO conference call about the poll, represents a fresh problem for Democrats, who count on union leaders and union members as a pillar of the party's base.

Wall Street Journal

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Louisiana: Cao May Vote Against Health Care Bill This Time

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The lone Republican who voted for the Democrats' health care reform bill in November won't support the final bill if it doesn't have the same abortion restrictions that passed in the House.
A spokeswoman for Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao, Louisiana Republican, said Tuesday that the lawmaker is concerned the language in the final bill is going to be closer to what passed the Senate, which he doesn't support.

Washington Times

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Erroll Southers: Outta Here!!!

Erroll Southers, President Obama's pick to head the Transportation Security Administration, withdrew today, claiming his nomination had become a lightning rod for those with a political agenda.
The decision was a blow for a White House already under fire by critics for its handling of the attempted Christmas bombing of an American airline.

World Net Daily 

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Italy: Views on Immigrants

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

	Agree	Disagree	Not sure
Immigrants who play a role in the economic life of a city, after a number of years, must have the right to vote in municipal elections	79.2%	15.4%	5.4%
All immigrants should take a course in Italian and civic values before being regularized	80.2%	18.5%	1.3%
Italian citizenship should be revoked if an immigrant is found to not share our values or commits crimes	76.9%	17.7%	5.4%

Source: Arnaldo Ferrari Nasi
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 Italian adults, conducted on Dec. 9 to Dec. 15, 2009. No margin of error was provided.

Denmark: Social Democrats & Liberals Tied

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What party would you support in the next general election?

	Dec. 2009	Oct. 2009
Social Democracy in Denmark (SD)	24.3%	23.3%
Left, Liberal Party of Denmark (V)	24.1%	24.8%
Socialist People’s Party (SF)	18.4%	18.3%
Danish People’s Party (DF)	14.3%	14.6%
Conservative People’s Party (KF)	10.7%	11.0%
Radical Left-Social Liberal Party (RV)	4.3%	4.3%
Unity List-The Red Greens (EL)	2.4%	2.8%
New Alliance (NA)	1.0%	0.5%
Christian Democrats (KD)	0.4%	0.4%

Source: Megafon / TV2
Methodology: Interviews with 1,587 Dane adults, conducted from Dec. 22 and Dec. 23, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

 

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Australia: ALP Lead Shrinks

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Jan. 17	Dec. 6	Nov. 29
Australian Labor Party	40%	43%	43%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	38%	38%	35%
Australian Greens	12%	11%	12%
Others	10%	8%	10%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Jan. 17	Dec. 6	Nov. 29
Australian Labor Party	54%	56%	57%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	46%	44%	43%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,144 Australian voters, conducted from Jan. 15 to Jan. 17, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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Rasmussen Says: GOP Generic Ballot Lead at 8

Date	Dem	GOP
01-17-10	37%	45%
01-10-10	36%	45%
01-03-10	35%	44%
12-27-09	38%	43%
12-20-09	36%	44%
12-13-09	37%	44%
12-06-09	39%	43%
11-29-09	37%	44%
11-22-09	37%	44%
11-15-09	38%	44%
11-08-09	37%	43%

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Louisiana: Melancon Losing to Vitter & Dardenne

Image via Wikipedia

Louisiana Survey of 500 Likely Voters
January 14, 2010

2010 Louisiana Senate Race
David Vitter (R)	53%
Charlie Melancon (D)	35%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure	8%

2010 Louisiana Senate Race
Jay Dardenne (R)	53%
Charlie Melancon (D)	31%
Some Other Candidate	6%
Not Sure	10%

New York District 1: Tim Bishop Leads by Only 2 pts.

	Likely Voters	Republicans	Democrats	Independents
Tim Bishop (D)	47%	19%	70%	36%
Randy Altschuler (R)	45%	74%	25%	61%
Undecided	8%	7%	5%	4%

FDL / Survey USA

Dallas: White Losing to Both Perry & Hutchison

But White believes he can overtake a GOP rival, and says some Republicans will help him do it. KERA's Shelley Kofler reports.

This week's Rasmussen poll shows Perry holding a 10-point lead over Hutchison.

But when pollsters asked likely Texas voters to choose between Republican frontrunners and Democratic contender Bill White, they found Perry more vulnerable. Perry leads White by 10 points. Hutchison leads White by 15 points.

KERA 

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Petty France Accuses US of 'Invading' Haiti

The French minister in charge of humanitarian relief called on the UN to "clarify" the American role amid claims the military build up was hampering aid efforts.
Alain Joyandet admitted he had been involved in a scuffle with a US commander in the airport's control tower over the flight plan for a French evacuation flight.

Telegraph

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Florida: 5 Cherokee County Politicians Switch to GOP in Last 60 days.

“I attribute it to what’s going on in Washington, D.C.,” Schoolcraft said of the exodus of Dems to the GOP. “East Texas has always been conservative. From what they (the people who switched parties) tell me, the Democratic Party went off and left them because of their liberal agenda. The Democratic Party isn’t a conservative party at all anymore.”

Jacksonville Progress

For Coakley, Ominous Sign

Image via Wikipedia

Fourteen months ago, there was a buzz on Blue Hill Ave. and the streets that run off it like caterpillar legs. This is the heart of the biggest minority community in the state, and the energy generated by the prospect of Barack Obama becoming president was palpable.

Yesterday, I drove the length of Blue Hill Ave. and counted exactly two Martha Coakley signs. One of them was on a fence next to the Roxbury Energy Gas station, on the corner of Moreland Street. The sign wasn’t properly fastened. It flapped in the wind, revealing a “Mike Flaherty for Mayor’’ sign underneath.

Boston.com

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Massachusetts Senate Prediction

People's Seat beats Too Good To Shake Hands by 5.

Poland: Tusk Favored for President

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Which of these candidates would you vote for in a presidential election?

	Jan. 2010	Dec. 2009	Nov. 2009
Donald Tusk	27%	27%	24%
Lech Kaczynski	16%	18%	16%
Andrzej Olechowski	10%	3%	5%
Marek Jurek	3%	2%	2%
Andrzej Lepper	2%	3%	2%
Waldemar Pawlak	2%	1%	3%
Tomasz Nalecz	1%	n.a	n.a
Grzegorz Napieraski	--	1%	1%
Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz	n.a.	13%	13%
Other / Not sure	39%	32%	34%

Source: GfK Polonia / Rzeczpospolita
Methodology: Interviews to 989 Polish adults, conducted from Jan. 7 to Jan. 12, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

British, Canadians and Americans Happy With Their Haiti Response

	BRI	CAN	USA
Doing too much	12%	7%	13%
Doing the right amount	46%	60%	52%
Has not done enough	13%	16%	13%
Not sure	29%	18%	21%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,020 Canadian adults, 1,008 American adults, and 2,007 British adults, conducted from Jan. 14 to Jan. 17, 2010. Margins of error range from 2.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

Earl Pomeroy Rumored to be Retiring

Story at Campaign Spot.

Massachusetts: Bad Weather Expected on Election Day; Could Help Scott Brown

The SEIU purple shirts will start mooing and complaining about how cold it is, and it will take 8 workers to do the job of 1 person instead of the usual 4.
Democrats are generally lazy by nature, so if you add in bad weather, how many will want to leave their couch?

Forecast for Boston, Monday: "Snow likely in the morning . . . Then a chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Light snow accumulation possible. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent."

Forecast for Boston, Tuesday: "Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper 30s . . . [In the evening] mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s."

Campaign Spot

Michigan: Democrats Scampering to Find Candidate for Governor

After eight years of disastrous governance, it is only fitting that Gov. Jennifer Granholm — whom Bill Ballenger, the sage of Michigan politics, calls the worst governor in state history — could not even competently launch the campaign of her anointed successor, Lt. Gov. John Cherry.

The Corner

Coakley: Devout Catholics Shouldn't Work in Emergency Room!

How can a Massachusetts Senate candidate possibly offend 39 percent of voters in her state? If it's Democrat Attorney General Martha Coakley, she would tell devout Catholics not to bother working in an emergency room (H/T Jim Hoft - Big Government).

Washington Times

Colorado: Jane Norton Leads Two Democrats by 12; Other Republicans Lead Too

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Survey of 500 Likely Voters in CO
January 13, 2009

Election 2010: Colorado Senate Race
Jane Norton (R)	49%
Michael Bennet (D)	37%
Some other candidate	3%
Not sure	11%

Election 2010: Colorado Senate Race
Jane Norton (R)	47%
Andrew Romanoff (D)	35%
Other	5%
Not sure	14%

Election 2010: Colorado Senate Race
Tom Wiens (R)	44%
Andrew Romanoff (D)	39%
Other	4%
Not sure	14%

Election 2010: Colorado Senate Race
Tom Wiens (R)	44%
Michael Bennet (D)	38%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure	14%

Election 2010: Colorado Senate Race
Ken Buck (R)	40%
Andrew Romanoff (D)	39%
Other	5%
Not sure	16%

Election 2010: Colorado Senate Race
Ken Buck (R)	43%
Michael Bennet (D)	38%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure	15%

Source: Rasmussen Reports

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Portugal: Split on Gay Marriage; Oppose Gay Adoption

Do you favour or oppose same-sex marriage?

Favour	45.5%
Oppose	49.5%

Do you favour or oppose adoption by same-sex couples?

Favour	21.7%
Oppose	68.4%

Source: Eurosondagem / Expresso
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,030 Portuguese adults, conducted from Oct. 29 to Nov. 3, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
 

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Costa Ricans May Elect Chinchilla for President

Yo! I can lead!!! Image via Wikipedia

Which of these candidates would you vote for in the 2010 presidential election?

Laura Chinchilla (PLN)	36.7%
Otto Guevara (ML)	16.2%
Ottón Solís (PAC)	8.5%
Luis Fishman (PUSC)	2.2%
Óscar López (PASE)	0.6%
Rolando Araya (AP)	0.5%

Source: Borge & Asociados / Diario Extra
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Costa Rican adults, conducted from Nov. 31 to Dec. 14, 2009. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.

France: Little Confidence in Sarkozy or Fillon

Image via Wikipedia

Do you have confidence in president Nicolas Sarkozy to face France’s problems?

	Jan. 2010	Dec. 2009	Oct. 2009
Confidence	32%	34%	39%
No confidence	63%	63%	57%

Do you have confidence in prime minister François Fillon to face France’s problems?

	Jan. 2010	Dec. 2009	Oct. 2009
Confidence	37%	36%	38%
No confidence	56%	59%	55%

Source: TNS-Sofres / Le Figaro Magazine
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on Jan. 4 to Jan. 5, 2010. No margin of error was provided.
 

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Would it be better to retake the senate or to come up short in 2010?

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In 1994 the GOP won both the House and Senate and Dick Morris promptly got Bill Clinton to triangulate. A similar win this year would open up a similar possibility for Obama. Even without the triangulation, his minions in the media could blame everything bad that happens on the potential Republican Congress, giving Obama an opportunity to win reelection in 2012. So what would be the best outcome? I would say the Republicans getting to about 47 or 49. Don't wish for 50, because a phony "Blue Dog" might use the opportunity to switch parties.

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Kentucky: Republicans Likely to Hold on to Senate Seat

Trey Grayson. Image via Wikipedia

Kentucky Survey of 500 Likely Voters
January 6, 2010

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Trey Grayson (R)	44%
Daniel Mongiardo (D)	37%
Some Other Candidate	8%
Not Sure	11%

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Rand Paul (R)	49%
Daniel Mongiardo (D)	35%
Some Other Candidate	3%
Not Sure	13%

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Trey Grayson (R)	45%
Jack Conway (D)	35%
Some Other Candidate	7%
Not Sure	12%

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Rand Paul (R)	46%
Jack Conway (D)	38%
Some Other Candidate	4%
Not Sure

Rasmussen Reports

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Pennsylvania: Gerlach Ends Governor's Run; May Seek Reelection to Congress

Gerlach said in a statement that he was dropping out of the race for governor because he could not raise enough money for a bid. But when pressed for an answer about whether the Congressman might run for his seat again, Gerlach spokesman Kori Walter said four-term House Member was not ruling anything out at this point. 

Congressional Quarterly

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Pennsylvania: Barletta, Kanjorski Rematch?

Lou Barletta. Image via Wikipedia

The leading contender for the Republican nomination is Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who entered the race Dec. 9 to pursue a rematch of the 2008 race that Kanjorski won by just 3 percentage points. The incumbent ran well behind Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama , who won by 15 points in the typically Democratic-leaning northeastern Pennsylvania district that includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.

Congressional Quarterly

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Iowa: Branstad Is Officially In!

Image by IowaPolitics.com via Flickr

Former Gov. Terry Branstad officially entered the race for the Republican nomination for governor today, announcing via Twitter he will tour the state beginning Jan. 19 in Des Moines.

Branstad, a Boone Republican who served four four-year terms as governor from 1983-99, will continue his announcement tour through Jan. 22, according to a message posted at www.twitter.com/GovBranstad2010.

WCF Courier

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Democrat Panic: Colorado Governor Ritter Quits Too

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Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter (D) will not seek a second term this fall, according to Democratic sources briefed on his decision.

Ritter, elected in a landslide in 2006, had seen his political fate dip considerably in the intervening years, and faced an extremely difficult re-election race against former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) in November.

Washington Post

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North Dakota: Dorgan Quits!

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

This is now favored to be another pickup for the Republicans in this year's elections even without Governor Hoeven. What was just recently unthinkable keeps getting closer to a real possibility: The GOP could gain the 11 seats it needs to regain the Senate for the American people. In 1980, the Republicans picked up 12 seats, so it is not unprecedented in modern times.

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