October 30: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD) 
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski defeats Eric Wargotz by 18 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: Rob Portman defeats Lee Fisher by 22 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)
Vermont: Patrick Leahy defeatS Len Britton by 24 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut (Republicans + 2)
Connecticut 4th: Dan Debicella defeats Jim Himes by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut 5th: Sam Caligiuri defeats Chris Murphy by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia (Republicans +2)
Georgia 2nd: Mike Keown defeats Sanford Bishop by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Georgia 8th: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall by 21 pts (PICKUP)
Georgia 12th: John Barrow defeats Raymond McKinney by 7 pts (HOLD)


Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

Illinois 

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas 
Kansas 4th: 

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +2)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Jason Levesque defeats Mike Michaud by 2 pts (PICKUP)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota (Republicans +1)

Minnesota 1st: Tim Walz defeats Randy Demmer by 2 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 6th: Michele Bachmann defeats Tarryl Clark by 18 pts (HOLD)

Minnesota 7th: Collin Peterson defeats Lee Byberg by 9 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota 8th: Chip Cravaack defeats Jim Oberstar by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7)

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina (Republicans + 5)
North Carolina 2nd: Renee Elmers defeats Bob Etheridge by 10 pts (PICKUP) 
North Carolina 4th: William Lawson defeats David Price by 2 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 7th: Ilario Pantano defeats Mike McIntyre by 12 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 8th: Harold Johnson defeats Larry Kissell by 15 pts (PICKUP)
North Carolina 11th: Jeff Miller Defeats Heath Shuler by 8 pts (PICKUP)


North Dakota 

Ohio 


Oklahoma (No Change)


Oregon (Republicans +1)
Oregon 5th: Scott Bruun defeats Kurt Schrader by 4 pts (PICKUP)

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island (Republicans +1)
Rhode Island 1st: John Loughlin defeats David Cicilline by 4 pts (PICKUP)

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah 

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia (Republicans +1)
West Virginia 1st: David McKinley defeats Mike Oliverio by 7 pts (PICKUP)
West Virginia 3rd: Nick Rahall defeats Spike Maynard by 8 pts (HOLD)


Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (sfgate.com)
• A state-by-state glance at Tuesday's election (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• RJ's 2010 Senate Race Predictions (blogcritics.org)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Democrats at 53 in the Senate, Republicans +53 in the House (Some Bold and Not-so-Bold Election 2010 Projections) (britannica.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Three seats I'll stop wondering about (redstate.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Resurgent GOP closes in on House win, eyes Senate (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Chris Weigant: Senate Midterm Election Overview (huffingtonpost.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Niall O'Dowd: Harry Reid Defeat No Bad Thing for Democrats With Chuck Schumer in the Wings (huffingtonpost.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)

Pennsylvania: Toomey Leads Sestak by 4 pts

Image via Wikipedia PA Survey of 750 Likely Voters
October 28, 2010  

Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R)	50%
Joe Sestak (D)	46%
Some Other Candidate	1%
Not sure Rasmussen Reports	3%

Related articles

• "Pennsylvania Senate: New Franklin & Marshall Poll Favors Toomey" and related posts (senatus.wordpress.com)
• Toomey Leads in Pennsylvania (politicalwire.com)
• "Pat Toomey Up 10 Points Against Joe Sestak" and related posts (thepajamapundit.com)
• PA-Sen: A Microcosm for Democrats (dailykos.com)
• Poll: Toomey reasserts lead in Pa.'s Senate race (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• On jobs, venues speak for Toomey, Sestak (philly.com)

Kentucky: Rand Paul Pulling Away From Jack Conway

Image via Wikipedia Kentucky Survey of 750 Likely Voters
October 27, 2010  

Election 2010: Kentucky Senate
Rand Paul (R)	53%
Jack Conway (D)	41%
Some Other Candidate	2%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	4%

Related articles

• "Rand Paul Jack Conway Kentucky Senate Debate 10/25/10 VIDEO" and related posts (rncnyc2004.blogspot.com)
• Kentucky Senate: Rand Paul 53% Jack Conway 40% (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Vicious Anti-Rand Paul Ad Only Suitable for Adult Eyes [Video] (gawker.com)
• Aqua Buddha Comes Back To Haunt Jack Conway In Kentucky (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Is Jack Conway Involved In an Investigation About His Brother? (redstate.com)
• Fox, PPP agree: Paul pulling away in Kentucky (hotair.com)
• Lame: Democrats plan attack "stomp" ad against Rand Paul (riehlworldview.com)
• Only CBS Notes MoveOn Protestor's Provocation at Kentucky Debate (newsbusters.org)
• How Old Is Jack Conway? (politicsdaily.com)

Michigan: Raczkowski Leads Peters by 5 pts

A new poll conducted by Great Lakes Strategies shows Republican 9th District Congressional District Rocky Raczkowski with a 5-percentage point lead (48 percent to 43 percent) over U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-West Bloomfield).

Campaign Spot

Related articles

• 'Chrysler's congressman' struggling in Mich. race (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• desperate times call for desperate name-calling (powerlineblog.com)
• 'Chrysler's congressman' struggling in Mich. race (sfgate.com)
• GOP candidate raises birther issue (politico.com)
• Gun Control Group's Seven-Figure Ad Campaign A Boon To Endangered House Dems (VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Democrats Face Pivotal Test in Midwest (online.wsj.com)
• Major Rocky Raczkowski runs for MI-9 Congressional District (waronterrornews.typepad.com)
• "FDL’s Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching" and related posts (elections.firedoglake.com)

New York: 11 Possible Pickups for GOP

New York state's congressional delegation could see huge changes in the midterm elections. A virtual purge of Democrats is quite possible, with as many as 11 seats changing hands.

New York is traditionally a late-deciding state because of the high cost of media and the late primaries, so these races are coming into focus only now.

The key question: Will the absurd state of the governor's race depress the "change" vote, or will New Yorkers opt to send a message further down the ticket?

Here are the 11 possible GOP pickups in the House:

Continue to NewsMax

Related articles

• GOP poised to win Congress redistricting edge, too (sfgate.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Hall And Hayworth In Dead Heat In Closely Watched Congressional Race; Arcuri Keeps Slight Lead (observer.com)
• Midterm Blowout: 50+ Dem House Seats Set to Flip to GOP (biggovernment.com)
• GOP eyes the Slaughterhouse Five (politico.com)
• Redistricting 2010: GOP Poised To Win Congress Redistricting Edge, Too (huffingtonpost.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)
• GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

October 28: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 23 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 7 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Alabama

Alaska (No Change)

Arizona (Republicans +4)

Arizona 1st: Paul Gosar defeats Ann Kirkpatrick by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arizona 3rd: Ben Quayle defeats John Hulburd by 6 pts (HOLD)

David Schweikert defeats Harry Mitchell by 13 pts (PICKUP)

Ruth McClung defeats Raul Grijalva by 2 pts (PICKUP)

Jesse Kelly defeats Gabrielle Giffords by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 12 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 6 pts (PICKUP) 

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho (Republicans +1)
Raul Labrador defeats Walt Minnick by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Illinois

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky (Republicans +1)

Kentucky 3rd: John Yarmuth defeats Todd Lally by 2 pts (HOLD)

Kentucky 6th: Andy Barr defeats Ben Chandler by 1 pt (PICKUP)

Louisiana

Massachusetts 

Maine (Republicans +1)

Maine 1st: Dean Scontras defeats Chellie Pingree by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Maine 2nd: Mike Michaud defeats Jason Levesque by 14 pts (HOLD)


Maryland (Republicans +1)
Maryland 1st: Andy Harris defeats Frank Kratovil by 7 pts (PICKUP)

Michigan 


Minnesota

Mississippi 


Missouri

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Hampshire

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New Mexico

New York (Republicans +7) [GOP weakness at top 3 positions on ticket make things hard for those lower on the ticket]

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 5 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio 


Oklahoma


Oregon

Pennsylvania (Republicans +6) 
Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 10th: Tom Marino defeats Chris Carney by 12 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania 12th: Tim Burns defeats Mark Kritz by 2 pts (PICKUP) 

Pennsylvania 13th: Allyson Schwartz defeats Dee Adcock by 11 pts (HOLD)

Pennsylvania 15th: Charlie Dent defeats John Calahan by 17 pts (HOLD)

Rhode Island

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP) 

South Dakota

Tennessee (Republicans +3)

Tennessee 4th: Scott DesJarlais defeats Lincoln Davis by 5 pts (PICKUP)

Tennesse 5th: Jim Cooper defeats David Hall by 6 pts (HOLD)

Tennesse 6th: Diane Black defeats Brett Carter by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Tennessee 8th: Stephen Fincher defeats Roy Herron by 15 pts (PICKUP)

Texas

Utah

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Tennessee: Bill Haslam defeats Mike McWerther by 25 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Related articles

• Who's going to win on Nov. 2? (politico.com)
• 10 steps on the Republican path to winning back the Senate (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
• Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Fighting Jackie Walorski and His Own D Party (politicsdaily.com)
• Indiana Races Bellwethers for House (online.wsj.com)
• Anne Kibbler: Indiana's Larry Buschon "Not Taking Anything For Granted" In Congressional Race Outcome (UPDATED WITH VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Could Republicans Win the Senate? (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Election Hot House: 98 Congressional Races Worth Watching (alternet.org)
• How the GOP could take back the Senate (washingtonpost.com)
• Climate skeptics wanted for GOP primary (politico.com)
• Predictions: Senate D 51, R 49; House R 231, D 204; Governors R 28, D 22 (themoderatevoice.com)
• Polling and Political Wrap, 10/23/10 (dailykos.com)
• Midterm Blowout: 50+ Dem House Seats Set to Flip to GOP (biggovernment.com)
• Election 2010: Where Things Stand (cbsnews.com)
• "Kaine Says Democrats will Hold House, then Why are They so Worried the GOP Will Take the House of Representatives in 2010 ... New York State Set for Possible Democrat Purge" and related posts (scaredmonkeys.com)
• Redistricting 2010: GOP Poised To Win Congress Redistricting Edge, Too (huffingtonpost.com)
• Republicans could control redistricting too (capitolhillblue.com)
• Dick Morris: Nine Pickups In NYS Alone? (minx.cc)
• GOP poised to win Congress redistricting edge, too (sfgate.com)
• GOP poised to win redistricting supremacy, too (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

October 27: Fun With Election Predictions

MOCK ELECTION

SENATE

Arkansas: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln by 26 pts (PICKUP)

California: Barbara Boxer defeats Carly Fiorina by 3 pts (HOLD)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal defeats Linda McMahon by 2 pts (HOLD)

Colorado: Ken Buck defeats Michael Bennet by 6 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware: Chris Coons defeats Christine O'Donnell by 3 pts (HOLD)

Florida: Marco Rubio defeats Charlie Crist by 12 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Johnny Isakson defeats Michael Thurmond by 29 pts (HOLD)
Illinois: Mark Kirk defeats Alexi Giannoulias by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Indiana: Dan Coats defeats Brad Ellsworth by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Kentucky: Rand Paul defeats Jack Conway by 11 pts (HOLD)
Louisiana: David Vitter defeats Charles Melancon by 22 pts (HOLD)
Missouri: Roy Blunt defeats Robin Carnahan by 10 pts (HOLD)

Nevada: Sharron Angle defeats Harry Reid by 7 pts (PICKUP)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand defeats Joe Dio Guardi by 11 pts (HOLD)

New York: Chuck Schumer defeats Jay Townsend by 24 pts (HOLD)
North Dakota: John Hoeven defeats Tracy Potter by 50 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey defeats Joe Sestak by 14 pts (PICKUP)
South Carolina: Jim DeMint defeats Alvin Greene by 39 pts (HOLD)

Washington: Patty Murray defeats Dino Rossi by 2 pts (HOLD)

West Virginia: John Raese defeats Joe Manchin by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson defeats Russ Feingold by 10 pts (PICKUP)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Arkansas (Republicans +2)

Arkansas 1st: Rick Crawford defeats Chad Causey by 19 pts (PICKUP)

Arkansas 2nd: Tim Griffin defeats Joyce Elliott by 24 pts (PICKUP)

Delaware (Democrats +1)

Delaware AL (At Large): John Carney defeats Glen Urquhart by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

Indiana (Republicans +3)
Indiana 1st: Jackie Walorski defeats Joe Donnelly by 1 pt (PICKUP) 
Indiana 8th: Larry Bucshon defeats Trent Van Haaften by 20 pts (PICKUP)
Indiana 9th: Todd Young defeats Baron Hill by 8 pts (PICKUP)

Montana (No Change)

Nebraska (No Change)


Nevada (Republicans +1)

Nevada 3rd: Joe Heck defeats Dina Titus by 5 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey (Republicans +2)

New Jersey 3rd: Jon Runyan defeats John Adler by 11 pts (PICKUP) 

New Jersey 6th: Frank Pallone defeats Anna Little by 2 pts (HOLD)

New Jersey 12th: Scott Sipprelle defeats Rush Holt by 3 pts (PICKUP) 

New York (Republicans +7) [GOP weakness at top 3 positions on ticket make things hard for those lower on the ticket]

New York 1st: Randy Altschuler defeats Tim Bishop by 3 pts (PICKUP)
New York 2nd: Steve Israel defeats John Gomez by 5 pts (HOLD)

New York 4th: Carolyn McCarthy defeats Fran Becker by 3 pts (HOLD)

New York 19th: Nan Hayworth defeats John Hall by 3 pts (PICKUP) 
New York 20th: Chris Gibson defeats Scott Murphy by 12 pts (PICKUP)
New York 22nd: George Phillips defeats Maurice Hinchey by 1 pt (PICKUP)
New York 23rd: Matt Doheny defeats Bill Owens by 7 pts (PICKUP)
New York 24th: Richard Hanna defeats Michael Arcuri by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New York 25th: Dan Maffei defeats Ann Marie Buerkle by 5 pts (HOLD)
New York 27th: Brian Higgins defeats Leonard Roberto by 17 pts (HOLD) 
New York 29th: Tom Reed defeats Matt Zeller by 22 pts (PICKUP)

Pennsylvania (Republicans +4)Pennsylvania 3rd: Mike Kelly defeats Kathy Dahlkemper by 14 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennsylvania 4th: Jason Altmire defeats Keith Rothfus by 4 pts (HOLD)
Pennyslvania 6th: Jim Gerlach defeats Manan Trivedi by 21 pts (HOLD) 
Pennyslvania 7th: Patrick Meehan defeats Bryan Lentz by 7 pts (PICKUP) 
Pennyslvania 8th: Michael Fitzpatrick defeats Patrick Murphy by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Pennsylvania 11th: Lou Barletta defeats Paul Kanjorski by 10 pts (PICKUP)

South Carolina (Republicans +1)

South Carolina 5th: Mick Mulvaney defeats John Spratt by 14 pts (PICKUP)

Vermont (No Change)


Virginia (Republicans +3)
Virginia 2nd: Scott Rigell defeats Glenn Nye by 9 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 5th: Robert Hurt defeats Tom Perriello by 16 pts (PICKUP)
Virginia 9th: Morgan Griffith defeats Rick Boucher by 8 pts (PICKUP) 
Virginia 11th: Gerry Connolly defeats Keith Fimian by 3 pts (HOLD)


Wisconsin (Republicans +3)
Wisconsin 3rd: Dan Kapanke defeats Ron Kind by 3 pts (PICKUP)
Wisconsin 7th: Sean Duffy defeats Julie Lassa by 15 pts (PICKUP) 
Wisconsin 8th: Reid Ribble defeats Steve Kagen by 10 pts (PICKUP)

Wyoming (No Change)

GOVERNOR

California: Jerry Brown defeats Meg Whitman by 3 pts (PICKUP)

Colorado: Tom Tancredo defeats John Hickenlooper by 2 pts (PICKUP)
Connecticut: Tom Foley defeats Dan Malloy by 2 pts (HOLD)
Florida: Rick Scott defeats Alex Sink by 3 pts (HOLD)
Georgia: Nathan Deal defeats Roy Barnes by 12 pts (HOLD)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie defeats Duke Aiona by 4 pts (PICKUP)
Illinois: Bill Brady defeats Patt Quinn by 10 pts (PICKUP)
Maryland: Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich by 8 pts (HOLD)
Minnesota: Mark Dayton defeats Tom Emmer by 2 pts (PICKUP)
New Mexico: Susanna Martinez defeats Diane Denish by 13 pts (PICKUP)
Ohio: John Kasich defeats Ted Strickland by 6 pts (PICKUP)
Pennyslvania: Tom Corbett defeats Dan Onorato by 7 pts (PICKUP)
Texas: Rick Perry defeats Bill White by 12 pts (HOLD)

Bill Maher: American Voters 'Stupid'

The hyena in black is at it again:

Florida: Scott Takes the Lead Over Sink

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Following Monday night’s debate, momentum in Florida’s race for governor appears to be slowly shifting to Rick Scott. Republican Scott jumped to a 2-point lead immediately prior to, and during, his red-hot CNN slugfest with Democrat Alex Sink.

Sunshine State News' nightly tracking poll of likely voters shows Scott moving from a 45-45 tie with Sink on Oct. 20 to a 47-45 advantage Monday night.

Two weeks earlier (Oct. 12-13), Sink held a 48-45 advantage.

Sunshine State News

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Joy Behar Viral Video

The latest work of art from Joy Behar...
Pouty, sexy image of Joy Behar via Wikipedia
“Sharron Angle is a bitch!”

Could an Electro Magnetic Pulse Cause More Damage than Obama?

Image via Wikipedia

The sky erupts. Cities darken, food spoils and homes fall silent. Civilization collapses.

End-of-the-world novel? A video game? Or could such a scenario loom in America's future?

There is talk of catastrophe ahead, depending on whom you believe, because of the threat of an electromagnetic pulse triggered by either a supersized solar storm or terrorist A-bomb, both capable of disabling the electric grid that powers modern life.

USA Today

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Illinois Senate: Kirk Leads Giannoulias by 4

Image via WikipediaIllinois Survey of 750 Likely Voters
October 26, 2010

Election 2010: Illinois Senate
Mark Kirk (R)	46%
Alexi Giannoulias (D)	42%
LeAlan Jones (G)	5%
Some other candidate	5%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	2%

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Oregon Governor: Dudley Takes the Lead Over Kitzhaber

Image via WikipediaSurvey of 750 Likely Voters
 October 25, 2010  
 

Election 2010: Oregon Governor
Chris Dudley (R)	49%
John Kitzhaber (D)	46%
Some Other Candidate	3%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	3%

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Long Suffering South Carolina May Finally Get its Spratt Removed

Image via Wikipedia

Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) trails Republican Mick Mulvaney by 10 points, 39 percent to 49 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Mulvaney is winning independents by 23 points and leads among male, female, middle-aged and older voters. The only group Spratt leads is younger voters, but he’s winning that unpredictable voting group by a mere two points.

The Hill

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Indiana: Walorski Cuts Donnelly Lead to 5

Image via WikipediaWith Dan Coats' coat-tails and Donnelly under 50 percent, Jackie Walorski may just pull this off.

Three Indiana Congressional Districts, all held by Democrats, were targeted by the Republicans this year. They are the 2nd, the 8th, and the 9th Districts. The 2nd is considered a bellwether. That means as it goes, so goes Congress and the race there is getting tighter.
The WISH-TV Indiana 2010 Election poll shows Democrat Joe Donnelly in the lead with a 5 point margin at 48 percent. Republican Jackie Walorski is at 43 percent with the libertarian at just 2 percent.

OnPolitix

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Florida: 2nd Poll Shows Boyd Down by 12

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) is down a dozen points in his race against Republican Steve Southerland, 38 percent to 50, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Southerland leads among males, females and middle-aged and older voters. He’s also winning 12 percent of Democrats. 

The Hill

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California: Vidak Leads Costa by 10 pts

Image via Wikipedia

In an election for US Representative from California's 20th Congressional District today, 10/25/10, Republican challenger Andy Vidak is atop incumbent Democrat Jim Costa, 52% to 42%, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted in English and in Spanish for KFSN-TV Fresno.
Costa has experienced across-the-board erosion since SurveyUSA's last poll 6 weeks ago: Among women, Costa had led by 14, now leads by 2. Among voters age 50+, Costa had led by 3, now trails by 14. Among voters without a college degree, Cost had led by 6, now trails by 11. 

Survey USA

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