Arizona: Grijalva Lead Over McClung Shrinks to 7 pts

Grijalva had the support of 42 percent of the voters in the poll, while [Ruth] McClung had the support of 35 percent. Another 23 percent were undecided.
“We’re very excited about it,” says Sam Stone, spokesman for the McClung campaign. “It clearly shows how much Raul Grijalva’s policies and his boycott have affected this race. Voters are definitely looking for an alternative of someone who is more interested in representing their constituents than making headlines.”
McClung, who works at Raytheon, is making her first run for political office.
Pat Burns of the Grijalva campaign had no immediate comment on the survey.

Tucson Weekly

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Gallup: Huge Enthusiasm Gap Favors GOP

The president is certainly reading the tea leaves accurately here. Our latest measure for the week of Sept. 20-26 shows Republicans with a 20-percentage-point lead over Democrats in terms of the percentage of voters who are “very” enthusiastic about voting. Additionally, preliminary modeling of the likely electorate using Gallup’s traditional likely voter questions (more on this next week) suggests that if current patterns persist, Republicans could have a double-digit lead in the national House vote on Election Day, which would translate into Republicans gaining well above the number of seats necessary to control the House.

Gallup

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New Jersey: Frank Pallone Cast Deciding Vote to Allow Massive Tax-Hike

Republican congressional challenger Anna Little - responding to today's House vote to adjourn Congress before holding a vote to enact legislation blocking planned tax hikes - this afternoon sharply criticized her opponent, 22-year incumbent Rep. Frank Pallone, for casting the deciding vote to adjourn Congress before acting to prevent a massive tax hike.
"Today, Frank Pallone showed why it's time for him to leave Congress," said Little. "With an economy in the ruts, he cast the deciding vote to adjourn the Congress before even holding a vote on whether or not to block a massive tax hike. His deciding vote will lead to continued uncertainty about what's to come for our nation's job creators, and will make job creation that much more difficult in the weeks and months to come.

Politicker NJ

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Washington: Rossi Takes 1 pt Lead Over Murray

Washington Survey of 750 Likely Voters
September 28, 2010  

Election 2010: Washington Senate
Dino Rossi (R)	48%
Patty Murray (D)	47%
Some Other Candidate	2%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	3%

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Ohio: Portman Leads Fisher by 13 pts, 50 to 37

Image via WikipediaRepublican Rob Portman, a senior official under former President George W. Bush, has opened a commanding 13-point lead over his Democratic rival in a Senate race in Ohio, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday said.
Portman, budget director and U.S. trade representative in Bush's administration, leads Democrat Lee Fisher 50 percent to 37 percent barely more than one month before the November 2 congressional election.

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Democrats May Lose Control of State Senate

Despite Democratic gubernatorial frontrunner Andrew Cuomo having sizable leads in all four districts polled, the two Republican incumbents hold large leads while two at-risk Democrats are in statistical dead heats.
Democrats currently hold a 32-29 edge in the Senate, with one seat vacant because the incumbent Republican recently died.


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2010/09/democratic-control-of-state-se.html#ixzz10rd51z4Q

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Massachusetts Governor: Patrick 35, Baker 34, Cahill 11, Stein 4

In the Globe poll, taken last week, [Deval] Patrick, a Democrat, won support from 35 percent of likely voters, compared with 34 percent for [Charles] Baker, a statistical tie given the poll’s margin of error. Cahill, the state treasurer who left the Democratic Party last year, continued to lag far behind with 11 percent. Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein got 4 percent, and 14 percent said they remain undecided.

Boston.com

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West Virginia Senate: Now Even Rasmussen Has Raese Leading Manchin

WV Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 27, 2010

Election 2010: West Virginia Senate Special Election
John Raese (R)	48%
Joe Manchin (D)	46%
Some other candidate	2%
Not sure	4%

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California: Cecilia Iglesias Turns Loretta Sanchez / Van Tran Race into a Toss-Up

Cecilia Iglesias has never run for office before – not even a schoolyard campaign for class president. Yet her presence on the ballot this fall has changed the equation in the tightest Congressional race central Orange County has seen in years. She has only pennies to the big dollars put up by her heavyweight opponents, Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez and Republican Assemblyman Van Tran. But in a race that will likely be decided by only a few percentage points, every vote she wins costs one of them dearly.

OC Register

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Delaware: The Good Witch is Catching Up to the Cold-Blooded Marxist, 49 to 40

Image by Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com via Flickr
 
Delaware Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 26, 2010

Election 2010: Delaware Senate
Christine O'Donnell (R)	40%
Chris Coons (D)	49%
Mike Castle	5%
Some Other Candidate	0%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	5%

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Democrat Controlled Media Accidentally Driving Obama/Muslim Rumor

In this study, the researchers looked at media coverage of the rumor from June 1, 2008 through Election Day, November 4.

They examined coverage on seven major television networks – ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NBC and PBS's News Hour with Jim Lehrer. They also examined coverage of the rumor in more than 25 newspapers around the country, including USA Today, the New York Times and the Washington Post.

The researchers employed a relatively new approach to determine how often Americans were using the Web to search for information about the rumor. They used Google Trends, a service of the online search company Google, which can be used to track how often particular search terms are entered into the search site.

Science Codex

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Massachusetts: Barney Frank Ahead by Only 10 pts

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeSurging Republican Sean Bielat claims he’s closed within 10 points of U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, according to an internal poll, which the incumbent Democrat’s camp hotly disputed ahead of a rescue mission from former President Bill Clinton.
“I feel we have a lot of momentum,” Bielat told the Herald yesterday. “This is a historic year, and people are looking for change.”

Boston Herald

 

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Independents as Upset as Republicans

More bad news for Democrats clinging to control of Congress: Independent voters are nearly as grumpy as Republicans about politics this year.
In an Associated Press-GfK Poll this month, 58 percent of independents and 60 percent of Republicans said politics is making them angry, compared with 31 percent of Democrats who said so. About 7 in 10 independents and Republicans were disgusted, compared with 4 in 10 Democrats, and independents and Republicans were likelier than Democrats to be disappointed, depressed and frustrated.

AP

 

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Florida Governor: Rick Scott Leads Alex Sink by 6 pts

Image by ScottForFlorida via Flickr  

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters
September 22, 2010

Election 2010: Florida Governor
Rick Scott (R)	50%
Alex Sink (D)	44%
Some other candidate	6%
Not sure Rasmussen Reports	0%

 

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New York Senate Shocker: Gillibrand 45, DioGuardi 44

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

Survey USA 

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Kentucky: Chandler Lead Over Barr Plumets to 7 pts

The internal poll for [Andy] Barr surveyed 407 likely voters and showed [Ben] Chandler leading 49% to 42%. The survey, conducted by the Tarrance Group, had a margin of error of 4.9 points, CQ reported.

CN2

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Don't Mess With Chris Christie

Democrats: Sabotaging Defense Bill to Make Liberal Base Happy?

Whispers around Capitol Hill are the Defense Authorization bill was never meant to pass. Tuesday’s cloture vote in the Senate on the annual Pentagon budget went down in a 56 - 43 vote. The two Arkansas Democrats Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor both crossed party lines and voted with Republicans. Senate majority leader Harry Reid, Nevada Democrat voted no, so the vote could be brought up again at a later time.

Fox Nation

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Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln Hides from Voters, Frolics in Boston with Biden

"This is clearly payback for Senator Lincoln's unwavering support for President Obama's big-spending, job-killing agenda. Boomerang Blanche delivered the crucial 60th vote on Obamacare and now they are delivering crucial funding for her campaign.  The question Arkansas voters are wondering: Why are you afraid to have the president and vice president come to Arkansas?  Blanche Lincoln must know the Obama-Biden team is just as unpopular and out-of-touch with Arkansans as she is."

Republican Party of Arkansas

 

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Pennsylvania: Kelly Leads Dahlkemper

Mike Kelly                   44
Kathy Dahlkemper       38

Real Clear Politics

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Michigan Governor: Snyder Leads Bernero by 13 pts

Image via Wikipedia  

Michigan Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 20, 2010  

Election 2010: Michigan Governor
Rick Snyder (R)	51%
Virg Bernero (D)	38%
Some other candidate	2%
Not sure Rasmussen Reports	9%

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New York Governor: Cuomo Leads Paladino by Only 6 pts

Andrew Cuomo. Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Republican Carl Paladino, aided by a 4 -1 margin among Tea Partiers, trails New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for Governor, 49 - 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

Quinnipiac

 

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Idaho Governor: Otter Leads Allred by 16 pts

Image via Wikipedia

Republican Gov. Butch Otter leads Democrat Keith Allred 45 percent to 29 percent in a statewide poll commissioned by the Idaho Statesman and six other Idaho newspapers. But only 44 percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of Otter, and 20 percent remain undecided.
When a relatively unknown challenger faces a well-known incumbent and undecided-voter numbers are high, it is because they already have decided they don't like the incumbent, said J. Brad Coker, of Mason Dixon Polling and Research Inc., which did the polling.

Read more: http://www.idahostatesman.com/2010/09/21/1347815/otter-and-minnick-lead-in-poll.html#ixzz10DHdYZYv

 

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West Virginia Senate: Republican Takes Lead in Race for 'Byrd's Seat'

John Raese        46
Joe Manchin     43
Public Policy Polling

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Alaska: Joe Miller Dominates 3-Way Race

Image via Wikipedia

 Alaska Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 19, 2010

Election 2010: Alaska Governor
Joe Miller (R)	42%
Scott McAdams (D)	25%
Lisa Murkowski	27%
Some other candidate	1%
Not sure	5%

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New York: Gillibrand Over DioGuardi Shrinks to 10 pts

Maybe Ditsy isn't safe after all?
 
New York Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 16, 2010  

Election 2010: New York Senate
Joe DioGuardi (R)	39%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	49%
Some other candidate	4%
Not sure Rasmussen Reports	7%

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Georgia: Republicans 'Poised to Make Historic Gains'

Image via Wikipedia

The poll conducted for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership shows the Republican candidate holding a slight edge in the race for governor but huge leads in the races for U.S. Senate and lieutenant governor. The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., has Republican gubernatorial nominee Nathan Deal leading Democrat Roy Barnes, 45 to 41 percent.
While Deal’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, Republicans U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle held bigger leads. Isakson leads Democrat Mike Thurmond, the labor commissioner, 52 to 33 percent, and Cagle leads Democrat Carol Porter, 47 to 28 percent. 

Atlanta Journal-Constitution

New York: Paladino Chipping Away at Cuomo's Lead

New York Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 16, 2010  

Election 2010: New York Governor
Carl Paladino (R)	38%
Andrew Cuomo (D)	54%
Some Other Candidate	2%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	6%

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Maryland: O'Malley Has Slight Lead Over Ehrlich

Image via WikipediaMaryland Survey of 750 Likely Voters
September 15, 2010  

Election 2010: Maryland Governor
Bob Ehrlich (R)	47%
Martin O’Malley (D)	50%
Some Other Candidate	1%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	3%

 

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Washington 3rd District: Herrera 52, Heck 43

In an election for US House of Representatives in Washington State's 3rd Congressional District today, 09/15/10, Republican Jaime Herrera defeats Democrat Denny Heck 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. 

Survey USA

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Arkansas: Boozman Leads Lincoln by 17 pts

Image via Wikipedia

Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Boozman continues to hold a 17-point lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln, a new poll shows.
In the poll, commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media and conducted Sunday through Tuesday, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Boozman if the election were held today, while 34 percent said they would vote for Lincoln.

ArkansasNews.com

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Delaware: O'Donnell Quickly Slashes 20+ Coons Lead in Half

Delaware Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 15, 2010

Election 2010: Delaware Senate
Christine O'Donnell (R)	42%
Chris Coons (D)	53%
Some Other Candidate	1%
Not Sure Rasmussen Reports	4%

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Vermont: Dubie & Shumlin in a Close Race for Governor

Image via Wikipedia
 
Vermont Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 13, 2010

Election 2010: Vermont Governor
Brian Dubie (R)	46%
Peter Shumlin (D)	49%
Some Other Candidate	2%
Not Sure	3%

Rasmussen Reports

Abortionist Group Declares California Senate Race a Top Priority

Abortionist logo via Wikipedia

In August, EMILY's List announced the "Sarah Doesn't Speak For Me" campaign in an attempt to contrast the records of Palin's endorsed GOP candidates with those of their Democratic opponents on the basis of women's issues. As independent voters appear to be leaving the Democratic Party in droves in poll after poll this year, Democratic groups are drilling down on specific demographic groups like middle-aged women and using these kinds of gender-based appeals to bring them back.

Real Clear Politics

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New Hampshire: Ayotte Wins Close Primary

New Hampshire has certified former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (AY'-aht) as the winner of the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
Ayotte was endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and won a narrow victory over Ovide Lamontagne (LAH'-mohn-tayn). His conservative credentials and courting of the tea party pulled him close in the final days of the campaign.

Real Clear Politics

 

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