Zogby has this result for Friday: McCain 48, Obama 47.
Source: Drudge Report
Friday, October 31, 2008
With No More Use for Cindy Sheehan, Dems Ransack Her Headquarters
Campaign staffers also note each incident, including today's early morning incident, has followed closely on the heels of a confrontation with Cindy Sheehan's opponent Nancy Pelosi. This morning's incident occurred after an on-air confrontation between the two candidates on KQED's public affairs program Forum with Michael Krasny on Wednesday morning.
"Each time we confront her, each time we ask her for a debate, each time we gain ground in the polls, something horrible happens," said Burns. "Once or twice might be a coincidence, but such a consistent correlation is hard to ignore."
Breitbart
Iowa: Early Voting Close to same pace 2004
Iowa – early and absentee voting, this year so far:
Democrat: 132,882, 50%
Republican:76,689, 29%
Other: 53,787,20%
Iowa – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers:
Democrat: 185,115, 48%
Republican: 118,167, 30%Other:86,071, 22%
And if Nevada and Florida are a clue, a lot less Democrats will be voting for Obama than voted for Kerry. Iowa looks like a toss up, no wonder all the attention from both campaigns in recent days.
Nevada: Early Voting Shows McCain Probably Takes the State
Now, yesterday's headline might have been a little hyperbolic — it's still possible that massive numbers of Nevada Republicans stay home, or that massive numbers of Nevada Republicans vote for Obama. But right now, a huge advantage in terms of which party shows up for early voting has translated to a surprisingly modest lead for Obama. Unless there is something glaringly off-base about these numbers, then McCain will carry Nevada on Tuesday, as long If pro-McCain Republicans show up and vote.
Campaign Spot
And there's the caveat: If Republicans show up. If they pull another 2006, they get what they deserve. If it's like 2004, 2002 or 2000, McCain and America wins.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 299, Obama 239
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. ACORN. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race
today, Thursday, October 30, 2008:
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260
More battleground states than ever. This is getting pretty exciting. Michigan has changed from solid Obama to leans Obama. Montana, North Dakota and Georgia have changed from solid McCain to leans McCain. The final Electoral Map, the one actually decided by the voters, has the potential to look drastically different from the map created in the last two presidential elections. Also, this means that a lot more people now live in a state that has a potential to go either way, which means their vote might actually matter (Unlike my home state of New Jersey).
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Wednesday, October 29, 2008:
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
Ali Abunimah is Likely Source of Secreted Obama/Khalidi/Ayers Tape
I don't know what is on this tape, but it seems like it must be pretty bad because Obama would have released it to prove that it was not so bad. By not releasing the tape, the story grows legs and keeps rattling around in the news cycle, making people wonder what exactly is on this tape. At first I was skeptical about this tape and I thought if might be an attempt to poison the well by Obama's camp (don't trust them too much), but now even I want to know about this darn tape and if it as bad as has been described.
UPDATE: Can Ali Abunimah be bought off for $175,000? Depends on what he's getting from greater Arabia, Islamia, and Obama. ****
There has been much discussion throughout the Net about a secreted video showing Barack Obama at a dinner with terrorists Bill Ayers and wife Bernadine Dohrn, and the anti-Semitic Arafat advisor, Rashid Khalidi.
The Los Angeles Times has a copy of the tape, but won't release it because they said the source--whom I believe is Arab American Action Network (AAAN) founder and anti-Israel Palestinian activist Ali Abunimah of Electronic Intifada--required it not be released as a condition of sharing it. That's because it likely shows Obama applauding an anti-Semitic, anti-Israel poem that was read at the dinner.
Debbie Schlussel
Massachusetts Democrat Senator Caught on Tape Stuffing Bra With Bribe $
Democratic state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson faces 40 years in prison after federal prosecutors outlined accusations that she accepted the bribes over an 18-month period in a money-for-legislative influence sting operation, prosecutors said. She had $6,000 in cash in her purse when she was arrested at her Roxbury home by nearly two dozen law enforcement officials, prosecutors said.
ABC News
In His Own Words: Obama Deliberately Sought Out Marxist Friends
"To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists."
—Barack Obama, "Dreams of My Father"
Obama Maximum-Donor Ordered Illegal Snooping of Joe the Plumber
World Net Daily
Obama, Socialists: Right Where McCain Wants Them
Yesterday's Gallup shocker (a 2 point gap in the "likely voter" model) is going to have a follow up today if Drudge is right: A Rasmussen poll narrowing the gap to 3 points. Now we know why John McCain and Sarah Palin were both in PA yesterday. The election is tightening across the map as those of us who remember 1976 have been predicting all along. Barack Obama represents a much more radical alternative than Jimmy Carter did in '76, and Carter's unusual profile sent voters by the millions towards Gerald Ford in the closing days. The same thing is happening this year as the very well known and very reliable John McCain enters his last big comeback within striking distance and very much on target.
Hugh Hewitt
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
New Hampshire: McCain Surge Raising Sununu's Numbers as Well
“Last Monday, October 20th, Senator Sununu trailed Jeanne Shaheen by six points (41% Sununu/47% Shaheen/5% Blevens). By Thursday, October 23rd, Sununu had narrowed the gap to just three points (43% Sununu/46% Shaheen/5%Blevens). As Election Day draws closer, it is clear that in a tight race, the momentum is on Sununu’s side,” writes Glenn Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.
NOW! Hamphsire
Palin Keeps Attracting Huge Crowds
Despite freezing weather (literally), 14,000 people in Salem, Virginia (including my family) waited for hours to see Gov. Palin. The event was originally scheduled to be held in the Civic Center but was moved to the football stadium to accommodate the crowd. The weather didn't bother Palin though..."I love the weather because it reminds me of home," she said.
Kevin McCullough Blog
Gallup: Presidential Race Down to 2 pts
The gap between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Saturday through Monday has narrowed slightly, and Obama is now at 49% of the vote to 47% for McCain among likely voters using Gallup's traditional model, and at 51% to 44% using Gallup's expanded model.
Gallup
Mississippi: Wicker Lead Swells to 11 Pts
Mississippi Trends: Wicker vs. Musgrove | ||
|---|---|---|
Date | Wicker | Musgrove |
10/27/2008 | 54% | 43% |
49% | 47% | |
47% | 42% | |
Source: Rasmussen Reports
Rasmussen: Obama Lead in Pennsylvania Plummets to 7
Pennsylvania Trends: McCain vs. Obama | ||
|---|---|---|
Date | McCain | Obama |
10/27/2008 | 46% | 53% |
41% | 54% | |
42% | 50% | |
Taking into account Rasmussen's oversampling of Democrats and a Bradley effect of 2 or 3 points, this race is now tied.
Reason Why the Polls Are So Contradictory?
This is why I would urge caution when interpreting all this polling data. We're talking about disagreements among good pollsters. I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can't be chalked up to statistical "noise." That gives me great pause.
Real Clear Politics
Iowa Stunner
Obama will be back in Iowa to defend a state that everyone had written off as safely Democrat just a few days ago. Poll numbers have fallen drastically in Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota over the last week, although Obama still has a tiny lead in each of these states.
PUMAs Confident McCain Will Win Pennsylvania
Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it. Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter, for the simple fact that these “Reagan Democrats” weren’t identified and labeled until AFTER the election.
Hillbuzz (PUMA site)
Monday, October 27, 2008
Electoral College Projection: McCain/Palin 278, Obama/Biden 260
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats (starting to get a little less rampant).
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in down the stretch.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud. Acorn. Walking Around Money.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect (About 2 to 3 pts, since some of you have asked)...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Monday, October 27, 2008:
Image created using Real Clear Politics interactive electoral college map.
Barrons Predicts GOP Losses in House and Senate
And here they are:
House — Loss of 27 seats
Senate — Loss of 5 seats
After some of the other predictions just a few weeks ago, I'll take it.
National Republican Trust Will Run Ads Featuring Obama's Racist Reverend
Politico’s Ben Smith reports that at least one PAC will go after Jeremiah Wright and his ties to Barack Obama, even if John McCain keeps it off limits to his own campaign. The National Republican Trust PAC will run this 30-second spot in battleground states Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida:
Hot Air
Obama Smoking Gun? Interview: In Praise of Redistribution of Wealth
The Warren Court was not radical enough for Barack Obama. Not my opinion...those are his own words.
How many times does he mention redistribution of people's wealth on this tape? Watch the video to find out the answer.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Wisconsin: Obama Lead Falls to 7 pts
This is pretty good news considering Rasmussen's "optimistic" oversampling of Democrats. I would say that Obama is leading by about 2 points in the state of Wisconsin right now, with over a week for McCain to close this gap. McCain does not need Wisconsin, but it would be nice insurance in case another state does worse than expected for him.
Wisconsin Trends: McCain vs. Obama | ||
|---|---|---|
Date | McCain | Obama |
10/23/2008 | 44% | 51% |
44% | 54% | |
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Minnesota: McCain Moves to Within 5 pts of Obama, Many Undecided
And as a bonus, Norm Coleman has moved ahead of that lunatic, Al Franken.
I'll keep Minnesota light blue on my electoral map for now, but it is very tight.
A St. Cloud State University poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads Republican opponent John McCain 42 percent to 37 percent in Minnesota.
To me it appears that some public pollsters (like this one) have been moving closer to what the internal polls of the candidates have been saying (or at least rumored to say). Then again, some polls just keep on stacking the Democrat sample higher and higher, thus predetermining that the poll will show Obama with what looks like a nice lead unless you look at the internals of the poll.Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race continues to display the volatility seen in polls throughout the season. After earlier surveys showed DFL challenger Al Franken with an edge, the SCSU poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman leading with 36 percent, compared with 27 percent for Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trails with 16 percent.
Minneapolis Star-Tribune
I'll keep Minnesota light blue on my electoral map for now, but it is very tight.
Electoral Map: McCain 278, Obama 260
1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Saturday, October 25, 2008:
Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral interactive electoral map.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...
Here is the state of the Presidential Race today, Saturday, October 25, 2008:
Map created using Real Clear Politics' electoral interactive electoral map.
Iowa Surprisingly Competitive
Some GOP observers with experience in Iowa and national politics are dismayed that the campaign is spending so much time here. Others say McCain must see something competitive for the ticket that few others do, in a state where polls show Democrat Barack Obama leading.
"I am puzzled by the decision because it seems to me the most precious resource presidential and vice presidential candidates have is their time," said Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party and top adviser to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. "And their appearances in Iowa, while perhaps inspirational to the base, might be better spent in other states now.
Des Moines Register
The reason is that the polls in Iowa, just like in the rest of the country, are drastically oversampling Democrats. This ensures that Obama will appear to have a pretty big lead even before the poll has been taken. McCain does appear to be down in Iowa, but only by a margin in the low single digits.
Joe The Plumber Considering Running for Marcy Kaptur's Congressional Seat
"I'll tell you what, we'd definitely be in one heck of a fight," [Joe] Wurzelbacher said told Laura Ingraham on her talk show Friday, "but, you know, I'd be up for it."
Fox News
Did Democrats Use Government Computers to Spy on Joe The Plumber?
State and local officials are investigating if state and law-enforcement computer systems were illegally accessed when they were tapped for personal information about "Joe the Plumber."Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher became part of the national political lexicon Oct. 15 when Republican presidential candidate John McCain mentioned him frequently during his final debate with Democrat Barack Obama.
The 34-year-old from the Toledo suburb of Holland is held out by McCain as an example of an American who would be harmed by Obama's tax proposals.
Ohio: Obama Workers From New York Foiled in Attempt to Vote in Battleground State
Thirteen campaign workers for Barack Obama yesterday yanked their voter registrations and ballots in Ohio after being warned by a prosecutor that temporary residents can't vote in the battleground state.
A dozen staffers - including Obama Ohio spokeswoman Olivia Alair and James Cadogan, who recently joined Team Obama - signed a form letter asking the Franklin County elections board to pull their names from the rolls.
New York Post
Virginia: Democrats Trying to Toss Thousands of Military Votes
An obscure state law and an ambiguous federal ballot form are combining to invalidate some of the thousands of absentee votes being cast this fall by Virginians overseas, most of them in the military.State officials confirmed Thursday that they've instructed local registrars to set aside any vote submitted on a federally furnished write-in ballot unless the ballot includes both the name and address of the person who witnessed the vote. An advisory to registrars was distributed earlier this week, said Susan Pollard, a spokeswoman for the State Board of Elections.
Iran: Is Ahmadinejad Health Bad?
Sure hope so.
This week alone the usually hyperactive leader cancelled a keynote speech at the last minute and a cabinet meeting had to take place without him. A speech to a martyr's commemoration event was also called off.
A senior aide, Amir Mansour Borghei, told journalists the president was "indisposed".
The absences have sparked rumours that Mr Ahmadinejad, 52, is suffering from a long-term illness that may stop him running for re-election next year.
Telegraph
Friday, October 24, 2008
Britain: Conservatives Have 12 pt Lead
If there were to be a general election tomorrow, which party do you think you would vote for?
| Oct. 19 | Oct. 2 | Aug. 17 | |
| Conservative | 42% | 42% | 44% |
| Labour | 30% | 30% | 29% |
| Liberal Democrat | 21% | 17% | 19% |
| Other | 7% | 11% | 9% |
Source: ICM Research / The Guardian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,007 British adults, conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 19, 2008. No margin of error was provided.
Death Threats Sent to Strategic Vision Polling for Publishing Polls Favorable to McCain
One of the messages stated:
My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!
Another stated:
A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.
A third message stated:
Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.
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